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NDAQ trades against a final fair-value range of $52.90-$87.67, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $52.9, high $87.7, with mid-point at $70.2.
Stock analysis

NDAQ fair value $53–$88

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
分析日: 2026-05-20次回更新: 2026-08-20Methodology v2.4Data cut-off: Quality gate: passSources: all material sources passed deterministic freshness/provenance gatesReview: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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株価
$91.98
▼ -21.83 (-23.73%)
公正価値
$70
$53–$88
評価
縮小
confidence 82/100
上昇余地
-23.7%
upside to fair value
安全余裕率
$59.63
MoS level · 15%
時価総額
$52.0B
P/E fwd 20.8
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§1 エグゼクティブサマリー

  • Composite fair value $70 with high case $88.
  • Implied downside of 23.7% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 82/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$70
Margin of safety
-31.1%
Confidence
82/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$91.98Price
Low $52.90
Mid $70.15
High $87.67

NDAQ trades against a final fair-value range of $52.90-$87.67, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Network effects in core exchange
    Network effects in core exchange listings
  • High switching costs in data
    High switching costs in data and analytics software
  • Cycle upside
    Accelerating IPO activity and strong demand for Anti-Financial Crime and index products drive structural growth outperformance and margin expansion.

§2 ベアケース

A prolonged capital markets weakness stifles IPOs and volume, while competition in data and technology products pressures pricing power. The market abruptly reprices the expected normalized multiple.

このテーゼが崩れる経路

Severe IPO Drought

· Medium

A multi-year drought in capital markets activity suppresses high-margin listings and trading revenue far beyond the anticipated near-term contraction.

FV impact
-20%
Trigger
12-24 months

Data Pricing Regulation

· Low

Strict regulatory intervention caps the pricing of proprietary market data feeds, structurally impairing a highly recurring revenue stream.

FV impact
-15%
Trigger
24-36 months

Listing Share Erosion

· Low

Aggressive competition from rival exchanges structurally erodes Nasdaq's core listing market share, weakening its overarching network effects.

FV impact
-10%
Trigger
36+ months
監視すべき早期警戒シグナル
指標現在トリガーしきい値
Sustained operating margin falling below 45% post-portfolio reshaping.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Failure to achieve immediate +8.4% Year 2 revenue rebound.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Loss of major corporate listings to rival exchanges.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Decline in recurring revenue growth rates.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Deterioration in OCF to Net Income conversion below 1.0x.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 財務履歴

損益計算書 — 直近6期
項目T−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
期間2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
売上高—$6.23B$6.06B$7.40B$8.26B+7.3%
売上総利益—$2.34B$2.55B$2.99B$3.49B+10.5%
営業利益—$1.66B$1.81B$1.95B$2.43B+10.0%
純利益—$1.13B$1.06B$1.12B$1.79B+12.3%
EPS (希薄化後)$2.35$2.26$2.08$1.93$3.09+7.1%
EBITDA—$1.85B$2.00B$2.46B$3.13B+14.0%
研究開発——————
販管費—$420.0M$417.0M$427.0M$424.0M+0.2%

品質スコア

OCF / 純利益
1.26×
>1 は利益の質が高いことを示す
会計品質ゲート
Fail
セクター調整後ゲート
ROIC
9.1%
投下資本利益率
セクション 3

Numbers analysis

キャッシュフロー

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

資本配分

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

個人サブスクライバー — §4以降11セクション追加

完全な分析を読む — 11セクション追加。

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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MARGINS FAQ

NDAQ margins questions

  1. NDAQ (NDAQ)'s margin set covers gross margin, operating margin, net margin, and free-cash-flow margin. The five-year trajectory is plotted so the reader can separate cyclical noise from secular trend.

FAQ

NDAQ — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, NDAQ looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $92.0 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $70.2 (range $52.9–$87.7), which implies roughly 23.7% downside to the midpoint.

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Same archetype: mature-compounder