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NEM trades against a final fair-value range of $134.25-$241.74, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $134, high $242, with mid-point at $181.
Stock analysis

NEM fair value $134–$242

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
分析日: 2026-05-10次回更新: 2026-08-10Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Cyclical
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株価
$116.51
▲ +64.69 (+55.52%)
公正価値
$181
$134–$242
評価
強い買い
confidence 88/100
上昇余地
+55.5%
upside to fair value
安全余裕率
$154.02
MoS level · 15%
時価総額
$124.4B
P/E fwd 10.3
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§1 エグゼクティブサマリー

  • Composite fair value $181 with high case $242.
  • Implied upside of 55.5% to fair value.
  • Moat 6.5/10 · confidence 88/100 · Cyclical.
  • Trades below fair value with a meaningful cushion to the midpoint.
Fair value
$181
Margin of safety
+35.7%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$116.51Price
Low $134.25
Mid $181.2
High $241.74

NEM trades against a final fair-value range of $134.25-$241.74, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Scale advantages in tier-one gold
    Scale advantages in tier-one gold jurisdictions.
  • Diversified global portfolio limits single-asset
    Diversified global portfolio limits single-asset risk.
  • Cycle upside
    Current environment features peak margins driven by strong cyclical commodity pricing and heightened global macroeconomic uncertainty.

§2 ベアケース

A rapid normalization of gold prices back to historical averages combined with sticky operational costs will severely compress margins. Free cash flowFree cash flowOperating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The cash a business generates after maintaining and growing its asset base — the closest accounting proxy for owner-economics. could turn negative if capital expendituresCapital expendituresCash spent on acquiring or upgrading property, plant, and equipment. Splits into maintenance capex (sustaining current capacity) and growth capex (expanding capacity). remain elevated to maintain production profiles amid declining ore grades.

このテーゼが崩れる経路

Gold Price Collapse

· Medium

Macroeconomic shift drives gold prices down significantly, wiping out the current peak margin profile.

FV impact
-30% to -40%
Trigger
12-24 months

Severe Cost Inflation

· Low

Labor strikes and energy price spikes drive all-in sustaining costs above realized gold prices.

FV impact
-20%
Trigger
6-12 months

Geopolitical Expropriation

· Low

Key international assets face nationalization or prohibitive royalty increases, stripping significant production volume.

FV impact
-25%
Trigger
Unpredictable
監視すべき早期警戒シグナル
指標現在トリガーしきい値
Sequential quarterly declines in realized gold prices.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
AISC rising faster than baseline inflation.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Downward revisions to annual production guidance.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Unexpected increases in sustaining capital expenditures.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Deteriorating political stability in key operating regions.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 財務履歴

損益計算書 — 直近6期
項目T−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
期間2022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
売上高$11.92B$11.81B$18.68B$22.67B+23.9%
売上総利益$3.26B$3.01B$7.14B$12.06B+54.6%
営業利益$1.61B$708.0M$5.91B$11.02B+90.1%
純利益$-429.0M$-2.49B$3.35B$7.09B—
EPS (希薄化後)$-0.54$-2.94$2.92$6.39—
EBITDA$2.36B$320.0M$7.53B$14.09B+81.4%
研究開発$229.0M$200.0M$197.0M$166.0M-10.2%
販管費$276.0M$299.0M$442.0M$382.0M+11.4%

品質スコア

Piotroski F-スコア
9 / 9
0–9 品質コンポジット
Altman Zスコア
4.54
倒産リスク (>3 で安全)
Beneish Mスコア
-2.71
利益操作リスク
OCF / 純利益
1.46×
>1 は利益の質が高いことを示す
会計品質ゲート
Pass
セクター調整後ゲート
ROIC
23.2%
投下資本利益率
セクション 3

Numbers analysis

キャッシュフロー

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

資本配分

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

個人サブスクライバー — §4以降11セクション追加

完全な分析を読む — 11セクション追加。

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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INCOME STATEMENT FAQ

NEM income statement questions

  1. Our financial-history view of NEM (NEM) covers revenue, gross profit, operating income, and net income across the past five fiscal years, with year-over-year growth and margin context for each line.

FAQ

NEM — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, NEM looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $117 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $181 (range $134–$242), which implies roughly 55.5% upside to the midpoint.

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Same archetype: cyclical