任意の製品分析
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Acceleration of the global modernization supercycle, where Otis's 26% constant-currency backlog growth converts into long-term high-margin maintenance contracts on an aging global elevator installed base,.
Service operating margin breaching below 22.0% (down from 23.2% in Q2 2026) driven by persistent labor cost inflation and modernization execution friction,.
Otis Worldwide Corporation carries a committee rating of Hold with a baseline fair value of $72.40 per share, offering a +9.5% implied return (8.7% price discount) relative to its $66.11 trading price,,. While Otis's ~2.5 million unit installed base drives defensive, high-margin maintenance cash flows, near-term upside is restrained by field wage inflation, modernization execution friction, and commercial construction declines in China,,.34
Otis Worldwide Corporation presents an attractive business model whose near-term equity upside is tempered by operational friction and regional construction headwinds. The committee rating is Hold with a fair value of $72.40 per share, compared to the share price of $66.11 on October 8, 2026. Otis's defensive foundation is its global installed base of ~2.5 million customer units, generating 65.4% of total revenues and more than 90% of segment operating profit through high-margin Service contracts,. Maintenance demand is nondiscretionary due to regulatory life-safety codes, which creates reliable across all economic cycles.
Near-term financial results have revealed margin pressure in the core Service business. In Q2 2026, Service operating margin dropped 170 basis points year-over-year to 23.2% as field technician wage increases and material costs outpaced contract price adjustments, alongside dilution from rapid modernization growth (+24% organic sales),. Concurrently, New Equipment demand in China contracted in the high teens, impairing China's $1,650 million revenue contribution. Management consequently adjusted full-year 2026 guidance to $15.1-$15.3 billion in revenue and $4.01-$4.05 in adjusted EPS,. Second-half margin recovery toward guided mid-24% to 25% levels is essential to confirm that operational initiatives are taking hold,.46
Capital allocation remains disciplined and oriented toward shareholder distributions. With annual capex representing approximately 1.0% of revenue ($152 million in FY2025), Otis converts operating profits efficiently into free cash flow, targeting $1.50 to $1.55 billion in adjusted free cash flow for FY2026. This cash flow funds consistent dividend payouts ($1.76 per share baseline) and substantial share repurchases ($800 million completed in 1H 2026). With debt standing at $8,846 million and senior executive transition underway ahead of CEO Judith F. Marks's planned retirement in 2027, investors should maintain existing positions and await operational margin validation.24
Maintaining approximately 2.5 million elevators and escalators globally creates dense technician routes that competitors cannot match economically, generating over 90% of segment operating income,.6
Aging commercial real estate drives strong modernization demand, with modernization backlog growing 26% at constant currency and Q2 2026 organic sales expanding 24%.
Low capital intensity (FY2025 capex of $152M against $14,431M revenue,) enables $1.50B-$1.55B in projected adjusted free cash flow to support steady share repurchases and dividends,.45
Hold: At $66.11, Otis trades at an 8.7% discount to its baseline fair value of $72.40 (+9.5% implied return). Investors should maintain existing allocations and await verified second-half 2026 service margin expansion toward guided mid-24% levels before deploying new capital,,.4
Otis Worldwide Corporation (NYSE: OTIS) is the world's leading manufacturer, installer, and service provider of elevators, escalators, and moving walkways. The company moves 2.5 billion people daily and maintains approximately 2.5 million customer units globally across more than 200 countries and territories, supported by a workforce of 72,000 employees including 45,000 field professionals.
The business operates through two primary segments: Service and New Equipment,. In FY2025, the Service segment generated $9,442 million in revenue (65.4% of consolidated sales) and $2,374 million in operating profit, encompassing preventive maintenance, emergency repairs, and full equipment modernizations,. The New Equipment segment delivered $4,989 million in revenue and $240 million in operating profit, engineering and installing systems in commercial and residential developments worldwide,.
Geographically, the United States accounted for $4,192 million in FY2025 revenue, China generated $1,650 million, and other international jurisdictions contributed $8,589 million,,. On September 15, 2026, Otis announced that Chair, CEO, and President Judith F. Marks will retire on the earlier of her successor's appointment or July 31, 2027, with the Board retaining Spencer Stuart to assist in the executive search.
A compounding stress scenario evaluates the combined impact of structural real estate contraction in China, field labor inflation exceeding contract price escalators, and debt refinancing pressures. If China new equipment installations deteriorate further, impairing the $1,650M revenue base, while Service operating margins contract toward 22.0%, operating profit growth stalls. Concurrently, refinancing portions of Otis's $8,846M debt load at wider credit spreads increases capital costs toward 9.87%. Under this combined operational and balance-sheet stress, cash conversion weakens and multiple contraction compounds cash flow impairment.
The bear trajectory contemplates persistent field labor inflation outstripping contract escalators, compounded by structural real estate contraction in China and higher refinancing costs on maturing debt obligations. Multiple de-rating and margin compression impair economic profit generation.
In Q2 2026, Service operating margin fell 170 bps Y/Y to 23.2% as management acknowledged unrecovered labor and material inflation,. If service margin breaches below 22.0%, consolidated operating margin drops ~300 bps below the 16.0% terminal target, resulting in a 23.5% fair value decline.4
投資判断を弱める5つの変化です。
A breach below 22.0% indicates that field labor inflation and modernization mix dilution cannot be offset by pricing initiatives, driving consolidated operating margin down ~300 bps and invalidating the 16.0% terminal margin target.
現在:23.2% in Q2 2026
警戒条件Below 22.0%
Otis Worldwide Corporation possesses a wide economic moat rooted in its unrivaled global installed base of approximately 2.5 million units and high switching costs embedded in regulatory-mandated elevator maintenance contracts. The Service franchise contributes $9,442M of consolidated revenue and $2,374M in segment operating profit,, accounting for over 90% of total segment operating earnings. This structural skew toward recurring maintenance insulates the company from cyclical volatility in building construction.
The density of Otis's field service portfolio creates significant labor efficiency advantages. With 45,000 field professionals moving 2.5 billion people daily, route concentration allows technicians to service clustered units with minimal transit time. Independent service providers struggle to match this operational efficiency, particularly as modern elevators incorporate connected IoT diagnostics that require proprietary firmware and specialized tooling. Furthermore, multi-year contracts provide predictable cash flow streams and sticky customer retention.
Economic profit durability is reinforced by an asset-light capital requirement. In FY2025, Otis expended $152M on capital expenditures, representing approximately 1.0% of net sales, while producing $2,133M in GAAP EBIT. This allows Otis to earn returns on invested capital well in excess of its 7.87% cost of capital while returning substantial cash to shareholders via dividends and share repurchases.
Otis generates returns on invested capital significantly above its 7.87% computed WACC and 9.04% cost of equity. This sustained economic profit is enabled by an asset-light operating model requiring only $152M in annual capital expenditures against $14,431M in revenue in FY2025,, generating $2,133M in EBIT.25
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($72.40). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $1.7B after modeled reinvestment of $145.3M, with terminal value at 80.4% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
The base trajectory models mid-single-digit service revenue growth driven by contract retention and price escalators, combined with double-digit modernization growth that offsets ongoing declines in China new equipment installations. Productivity initiatives and SG&A reductions support steady consolidated margin expansion.
A decisive margin beat proves that service price escalators and productivity initiatives have overtaken wage inflation, confirming operating leverage toward the terminal target.
Operational results track baseline expectations, balancing defensive service cash generation against China new equipment volume contraction.
Failure to stabilize service margins would demonstrate that wage inflation and mix dilution are structural, requiring lower terminal valuation multiples.
Otis's earnings quality remains sound, supported by high cash conversion, though second quarter GAAP operating profit of $575M and adjusted operating profit of $587M reflect $11M in restructuring charges. The absence of prior-year UpLift transformation costs ($41M in 1H 2025) improved GAAP comparability. GAAP EPS of $1.12 exceeded adjusted EPS of $1.01 in Q2 2026 due to $31M in non-recurring tax-related interest income adjustments. Operating cash flow of $680M and adjusted free cash flow of $562M in 1H 2026 substantiate underlying cash generation despite working capital movements.
Consensus estimate momentum has stabilized post-Q2 results. Consensus EPS for FY2026 stands unchanged at $4.04 between October 5 and October 9, 2026, matching the midpoint of updated management guidance of $4.01-$4.05. Similarly, FY2027 consensus EPS remains constant at $4.53, while revenue estimates sit flat at $15,302M for FY2026 and $16,012M for FY2027.4
Crucial test of whether price adjustments and productivity gains can offset persistent field labor inflation and modernization mix dilution.
Cash flow generation demonstrated resilience in the first half of 2026, with cash flow from operations reaching $680M ($267M in Q2) compared to $405M in 1H 2025. Free cash flow for 1H 2026 was $603M, while adjusted free cash flow stood at $562M. For full-year 2026, management guides adjusted free cash flow to $1.50B-$1.55B, converting approximately 100% of net income into free cash.4
Otis maintains a disciplined capital allocation strategy focused on shareholder distributions and selective modernization investment. In 1H 2026, the company paid $330M in dividends and completed $807M in common stock repurchases. Current dividend per share stands at $1.76. Capital expenditures remain low at $77M in 1H 2026 ($152M in FY2025), underscoring an asset-light model. Total debt sits at $8,846M, requiring disciplined debt refinancing management as 2026 and 2027 notes mature.
Otis maintains stable, high economic profits. Because the business requires minimal physical capital reinvestment ($152M capex on $14,431M sales,), return on invested capital remains well in excess of capital costs, supported by predictable multi-year service revenues.
Return on invested capital substantially exceeds the company's 7.87% computed WACC and 9.04% cost of equity, reflecting the high profitability of the service installed base.
In FY2025, Service generated $9,442M in revenue and $2,374M in operating profit,, compared to New Equipment's $4,989M in revenue and $240M in operating profit,.
Otis's earnings engine is overwhelmingly service-dominated, making contract pricing and retention far more critical to than new installation demand.
| 売上高 | $14,431,000,000 |
|---|---|
| 売上原価 | $10,061,000,000 |
| 売上総利益 | $4,370,000,000 |
| 営業費用 | $2,237,000,000 |
| 営業利益 | $2,133,000,000 |
| 営業外項目および税金 | -$749,000,000 |
| 純利益 | $1,384,000,000 |
| 総資産 | $10,653,000,000 |
|---|---|
| 現金 | $1,096,000,000 |
| 流動資産 | $6,501,000,000 |
| 負債合計 | $15,924,000,000 |
| 流動負債 | $7,656,000,000 |
| 株主資本欠損 | $5,346,000,000 |
| 純利益 | $1,384,000,000 |
|---|---|
| 営業キャッシュ流入 | $1,639,000,000 |
| 減価償却費 | $175,000,000 |
| 株式報酬 | $80,000,000 |
| 営業キャッシュフロー | $1,596,000,000 |
| 営業キャッシュ流出 | $43,000,000 |
| 利用可能現金 | $3,932,000,000 |
| 期首現金 | $2,321,000,000 |
| 為替レートの影響 | $15,000,000 |
| 投資キャッシュ流出 | $406,000,000 |
| 設備投資 | $152,000,000 |
| その他の投資活動 | $254,000,000 |
| 財務キャッシュ流出 | $2,421,000,000 |
| 自社株買い | $809,000,000 |
| 支払配当金 | $647,000,000 |
| 純有利子負債返済 | $658,000,000 |
| その他の財務活動 | $307,000,000 |
| 期末現金 | $1,105,000,000 |
| 投資キャッシュフロー | -$406,000,000 |
| 財務キャッシュフロー | -$2,421,000,000 |
出典: SEC EDGAR · 提出日 2026-02-05 · SEC EDGAR
| 事業セグメント別売上高 | 売上高 | 構成比 | 前年比 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Services | $94.4億 | 65.4% | 6.2% |
| New Equipment | $49.9億 | 34.6% | -7% |
出典: SEC EDGAR · 提出日 2026-02-05 · SEC EDGAR
| 地域別売上高 | 売上高 | 構成比 | 前年比 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | $85.9億 | 59.5% | 6% |
| United States | $41.9億 | 29% | -1.1% |
| China | $16.5億 | 11.4% | -14% |
2026-10-09の分析で使用した時点財務データ。
| 期間 | 売上高 | EBITDA | 純利益 | 営業キャッシュフロー | フリーキャッシュフロー | 設備投資 | 減価償却費 | 株式報酬 | 自社株買い | 支払配当金 | 純有利子負債調達 | 投資キャッシュフロー | 財務キャッシュフロー | 期首現金 | 期末現金 | 現金および投資 | 総負債 | 営業利益率 | ROIC | WACC | ROIC−WACCスプレッド |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-12-31 | $123.2億 | $21.7億 | $6.4億 | $14.5億 | $13.2億 | $1.3億 | $1.8億 | $2900万 | — | $2.6億 | — | -$1.9億 | -$14億 | — | $15.7億 | $15.7億 | $1700万 | 15.5% | — | — | — |
| 2018-12-31 | $129.2億 | $20.3億 | $10.5億 | $15.5億 | $13.8億 | $1.7億 | $1.9億 | $3800万 | — | $0 | — | -$2億 | -$15億 | $15.7億 | $13.5億 | $13.3億 | $2700万 | 14.2% | — | — | — |
| 2019-12-31 | $131.2億 | $19.9億 | $11.2億 | $14.7億 | $13.2億 | $1.5億 | $1.8億 | $3700万 | $0 | $0 | — | -$2億 | -$11.3億 | $13.5億 | $14.6億 | $14.5億 | $500万 | 13.8% | — | — | — |
| 2020-12-31 | $127.6億 | $18.3億 | $9.1億 | $14.8億 | $13億 | $1.8億 | $1.9億 | $6300万 | $0 | $2.6億 | — | -$3.5億 | -$8.4億 | $14.6億 | $18億 | $17.8億 | $52.6億 | 12.8% | — | 4.1% | — |
| 2021-12-31 | $143億 | $23億 | $12.5億 | $17.5億 | $15.9億 | $1.6億 | $2億 | $6500万 | $7.3億 | $3.9億 | — | -$8900万 | $5800万 | $18億 | $34.8億 | $15.7億 | $72.5億 | 14.7% | — | 4.6% | — |
| 2022-12-31 | $136.9億 | $22.6億 | $12.5億 | $15.6億 | $14.5億 | $1.2億 | $1.9億 | $6700万 | $8.5億 | $4.7億 | -$3.9億 | -$3300万 | -$36.5億 | $34.8億 | $12億 | $11.9億 | $66.3億 | 14.9% | — | 6.6% | — |
| 2023-12-31 | $142.1億 | $21.9億 | $14.1億 | $16.3億 | $14.9億 | $1.4億 | $1.9億 | $6400万 | $8億 | $5.4億 | $1億 | -$1.8億 | -$13.5億 | $12億 | $12.8億 | $25億 | $68.7億 | 15.4% | — | 6.8% | — |
| 2024-12-31 | $142.6億 | $22.3億 | $16.5億 | $15.6億 | $14.4億 | $1.3億 | $1.8億 | $7300万 | $10.1億 | $6.1億 | $15.1億 | -$1.6億 | -$3.1億 | $12.8億 | $23.2億 | $23億 | $82.7億 | 14.1% | — | 7.6% | — |
| 2025-12-31 | $144.3億 | $23.1億 | $13.8億 | $16億 | $14.4億 | $1.5億 | $1.8億 | $8000万 | $8.1億 | $6.5億 | -$6.6億 | -$4.1億 | -$24.2億 | $23.2億 | $11.1億 | $11億 | $77.4億 | 14.8% | — | 6.9% | — |
Otis Worldwide Corporation (OTIS) trades at 15.1x forward earnings against a peer median of 18.9x. Its EV/EBITDA of 12.7x compares with a peer median of 15.8x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Rockwell Automation Inc., Illinois Tool Works Inc., Dover Corporation and Xylem Inc., as of 2026-10-09.
Industry capex-to-depreciation is 0.68 and industry capex-to-revenue stands at 4.1%. Because capacity, supply, lead-time, and customer-concentration evidence is unavailable, the industry cycle view is demand-led and evidence-limited.
A cyclical peak in the elevator and escalator industry features robust multi-family and commercial real estate development, high installation volumes, strong pricing power on equipment sales, and accelerated conversion of completed installations into sticky maintenance agreements.
A pronounced industry downturn is characterized by severe contraction in commercial and residential construction, widespread project cancellations, pricing wars in new equipment bids, and aggressive unit poaching by independent service providers during building occupancy declines.
Otis is insulated against broader industry capital cycles by deriving 65.4% of net sales and more than 90% of operating profits from its recurring Service segment,. While New Equipment sales face organic pressure in China (down high-teens), the 26% growth in modernization backlog captures demand from the world's aging elevator infrastructure.6
A moderate conviction level aligns with the committee Hold rating. While the Service franchise provides defensive cash flows, near-term headwinds from wage inflation and China new equipment declines advise maintaining current weights without adding new capital.
Portfolio exposure should be maintained at a neutral market weighting. Monitor quarterly service contract retention rates in North America and track credit spread developments on corporate debt maturities in 2026 and 2027 against Otis's $8,846M debt obligation.
At $66.11, Otis trades at an 8.7% discount to baseline fair value of $72.40 (+9.5% implied return),. While free cash flow yield is healthy ($1.50B-$1.55B guidance), near-term service margin dilution warrants holding existing shares rather than allocating fresh capital.34
Full-year guidance revisions ($4.01-$4.05 EPS) and persistent China new equipment contractions limit near-term multiple expansion, favoring a wait-and-see stance until 2H margin recovery is proven.4
Existing investors enjoy a stable dividend supported by ~2.5 million units under maintenance,, but elevated debt of $8,846 million and upcoming refinancings recommend maintaining position size without adding.2
We maintain a Hold rating on Otis Worldwide Corporation with a 12-month baseline fair value of $72.40 per share, representing a +9.5% implied return (8.7% price discount) relative to the $66.11 market price,,. Otis's premier global installed base of ~2.5 million units provides sticky, defensive maintenance cash flows,, but near-term upside is constrained by field labor cost inflation, execution friction in modernization, and ongoing construction declines in China,.34
With full-year FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance revised to $4.01-$4.05 and adjusted free cash flow expected at $1.50B-$1.55B,, the business continues to return capital via buybacks and dividends, but capital deployment should remain on hold until second-half margin expansion is validated.
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The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Otis carries $8,846M in debt with 2026 and 2027 notes maturing, testing free cash conversion and margin durability under elevated leverage. If refinancing costs surge and debt spreads widen, WACC rises +200 bps above the baseline 7.87%, inflicting a 28.4% fair value haircut.2
China New Equipment orders dropped in the high teens with Asia Pacific orders falling over 20% in Q2 2026. If structural construction contraction impairs China's $1,650M revenue base, the market will de-rate Otis's terminal multiple by 20% from 16.0x to 12.8x, eroding fair value by 20.0%.6
Sustained contraction in China new equipment orders signals structural real estate impairment, endangering China's $1,650M revenue base and triggering a terminal multiple de-rating from 16.0x to 12.8x.
現在:Contracted in high teens during Q2 2026
警戒条件Contraction exceeding 20% sustained over multiple quarters
Surging refinancing yields across $8,846M in total debt as notes mature in 2026 and 2027 expands credit spreads, raising the discount rate and driving a 28.4% fair value reduction.
現在:7.87%
警戒条件Above 9.87% (+200 bps)
Accelerating churn across North American multi-year maintenance agreements erodes high-margin recurring cash flows in the $4,192M US revenue base.
現在:Down slightly in Q2 2026, prompting $50M strategic investments,
警戒条件Retention rate dropping below 93% or net portfolio loss in Americas
Deceleration of modernization backlog growth below 10% impairs Otis's ability to offset new equipment contraction with aging installed base overhauls.
現在:+26% constant currency in Q2 2026
警戒条件Deceleration below 10% constant currency
| medium |
| 24 to 36 months |
| Otis is redeploying resources toward modernization retrofits, where China modernization orders expanded over 100% in Q2 2026, balancing new build weakness with conversions into the maintenance portfolio.4 |
Under the moderate discount rate, $15.94 comes from forecast-period earnings and $60.35 from the long-term value, totaling $76.29.
Project EPS through the explicit advantage period, fade growth as competition catches up, and discount the full stream at cost of equity.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward EPS path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and terminal value at WACC, then adjust for signed net debt per current share.
Discounted forecast-period cash flows ($19.68) plus discounted terminal value ($80.79) minus signed per current share ($17.46) equals the $83.02 lens value shown above. Negative net debt is , so subtracting it raises value.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
In the bull trajectory, pricing adjustments across the Americas and EMEA fully offset labor inflation, while modernization demand accelerates across mature urban markets. China property stimulus aids project completions, revitalizing higher-margin retrofits and driving operating margins beyond historical highs.
Modernization serves as the primary bridge offsetting cyclical new equipment weakness by capturing aging unit overhaul demand.
Assesses whether the structural downturn in Chinese commercial construction has reached an operational trough.
Cash generation underpins Otis's capital return program, share buybacks, and debt servicing capabilities.
Contract retention in North America is critical to preserving high-margin recurring cash flows against independent service provider competition.
| $16.65B |
| $17.23B |
| $17.75B |
| Revenue growth | 6.0% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.0% |
| Operating margin | 15.2% | 15.5% | 15.7% | 15.9% | 16.0% |
| Operating income | $2.33B | $2.48B | $2.61B | $2.74B | $2.84B |
| Tax rate | 21.9% | 21.9% | 21.9% | 21.9% | 21.9% |
| NOPAT | $1.82B | $1.94B | $2.04B | $2.14B | $2.22B |
| Reinvestment | $145.25M | $145.28M | $142.84M | $139.03M | $133.01M |
| Reinvestment rate (of NOPAT) | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.0% |
| Free cash flow to firm | $1.67B | $1.79B | $1.90B | $2.00B | $2.08B |
| Services revenue | $10.01B | $10.48B | $10.89B | $11.28B | $11.61B |
| New Equipment revenue | $5.29B | $5.53B | $5.76B | $5.96B | $6.14B |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
Capital expenditures were $152M against D&A of $175M in FY2025, yielding an approved forecast net reinvestment rate between 8.0% and 6.0% of NOPAT across FY2026-FY2030.
Low capital intensity allows substantial free cash flow generation, supporting debt obligations and steady share count reduction.
Service operating margin contracted 170 bps Y/Y to 23.2% in Q2 2026 due to wage and material inflation and modernization ramp expenses.
Second-half earnings recovery relies heavily on capturing 150 bps of service margin expansion toward management's full-year target a touch below 24%,.
| マージン |
|---|
| OTIS | Otis Worldwide Corporation | $25.2B | 15.1x | 1.7x | 12.7x | — | — |
| ROK | Rockwell Automation Inc. | $48.2B | 29.1x | 5.4x | 24.5x | 30.6% | 21.0% |
| ITW | Illinois Tool Works Inc. | $75.4B | 21.4x | 4.6x | 17.5x | 104.6% | 26.9% |
| DOV | Dover Corporation | $25.4B | 16.2x | 3.0x | 14.1x | 14.9% | 18.7% |
| XYL | Xylem Inc. | $23.8B | 16.4x | 2.6x | 13.1x | 9.2% | 17.0% |
| Adjusted Free Cash Flow | Full-year pacing below $1.45B | Scrutinize working capital deterioration and review the sustainable pace of share repurchases. |
