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Direct answer
PINS trades against a final fair-value range of $12.20-$30.66, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $12.2, high $30.7, with mid-point at $21.2.
Stock analysis

PINS fair value $12–$31

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
分析日: 2026-05-19次回更新: 2026-08-19Methodology v2.4Data cut-off: Quality gate: passSources: all material sources passed deterministic freshness/provenance gatesReview: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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株価
$18.84
▲ +2.39 (+12.69%)
公正価値
$21
$12–$31
評価
買い
confidence 82/100
上昇余地
+12.7%
upside to fair value
安全余裕率
$18.05
MoS level · 15%
時価総額
$10.6B
P/E fwd 8.4
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§1 エグゼクティブサマリー

  • Composite fair value $21 with high case $31.
  • Implied upside of 12.7% to fair value.
  • Moat 6.5/10 · confidence 82/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Trades at a measured discount to fair value with adequate margin of safety.
Fair value
$21
Margin of safety
+11.3%
Confidence
82/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$18.84Price
Low $12.20
Mid $21.23
High $30.66

PINS trades against a final fair-value range of $12.20-$30.66, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • High-intent visual discovery search behavior
    High-intent visual discovery search behavior.
  • Proprietary, non-social intent data graph
    Proprietary, non-social intent data graph.
  • Cycle upside
    Retail ad spend migrating rapidly toward high-intent performance and shoppable formats.

§2 ベアケース

In a severe macro ad recession, Pinterest's asset-light nature protects core cash flow, but ARPU compression would stall GAAP profitability. Aggressive share repurchases provide a floor against multiple collapse.

このテーゼが崩れる経路

Stagnant User Growth

· Medium

MAU declines in core North American markets structurally limit absolute impression volume.

FV impact
Severe

Ad Budget Consolidation

· High

Advertisers retreat to dominant performance networks, stranding Pinterest as experimental spend.

FV impact
High

Partnership Execution Failure

· Low

Amazon integration fails to drive modeled yield improvements, capping ARPU ceilings.

FV impact
Moderate
監視すべき早期警戒シグナル
指標現在トリガーしきい値
ARPU growth decelerates below 10% year-over-year despite partnerships.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Operating margin expansion falls short of 200 bps annualized over 24 months.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Next twelve months (NTM) EPS fails to maintain the $2.23 trajectory.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Stock-based compensation materially outpaces free cash flow generation.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Active user base declines sequentially in high-value demographics.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 財務履歴

損益計算書 — 直近6期
項目T−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
期間2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
売上高—$2.80B$3.06B$3.65B$4.22B+10.8%
売上総利益—$2.12B$2.37B$2.90B$3.38B+12.3%
営業利益—$-101.7M$-125.7M$179.8M$319.9M—
純利益—$-96.0M$-35.6M$1.86B$416.9M—
EPS (希薄化後)$0.46$-0.14$-0.05$2.67—+55.2%
EBITDA—$-55.2M$-104.2M$201.1M$345.0M—
研究開発—$949.0M$1.07B$1.24B$1.43B+10.7%
販管費—$1.28B$1.42B$1.48B$1.63B+6.3%

品質スコア

OCF / 純利益
3.08×
>1 は利益の質が高いことを示す
会計品質ゲート
Fail
セクター調整後ゲート
ROIC
5.1%
投下資本利益率
セクション 3

Numbers analysis

キャッシュフロー

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

資本配分

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

個人サブスクライバー — §4以降11セクション追加

完全な分析を読む — 11セクション追加。

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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FAQ

PINS — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, PINS looks modestly undervalued. The current price is $18.8 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $21.2 (range $12.2–$30.7), which implies roughly 12.7% upside to the midpoint.

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