Based on our latest analysis, PINS looks modestly undervalued. The current price is $18.8 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $21.2 (range $12.2–$30.7), which implies roughly 12.7% upside to the midpoint.

What is PINS's fair value?

Our composite fair-value range for PINS is $12.2–$30.7, with a midpoint of $21.2. The range is triangulated across multiple valuation models (discounted earnings, forward earnings scenarios, peer multiples, and where applicable owner earnings or reverse DCF) and weighted by reliability for PINS's archetype.

Should I buy PINS now?

Our current rating for PINS is Buy with a confidence score of 82/100. PINS is rated Buy at $18.84 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $21.23, implying +12.69% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 82/100. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.

What are the biggest risks for PINS?

The top risks our latest report flags for PINS are: Stagnant User Growth; Ad Budget Consolidation; Partnership Execution Failure. The single biggest risk is The biggest risk is that the bear-case drivers materialize: growth slows, margins compress, or competitive pressure reduces the fair-value range.

What is PINS's rating?

Our current rating for PINS is Buy, issued with a confidence score of 82/100 and a moat score of 6.5/10. The rating reflects the composite fair-value range ($12.2–$30.7) versus the current price of $18.8.

What archetype is PINS?

PINS is classified as a mature compounder stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for PINS.

What are PINS's bull, base, and bear cases?

Each scenario for PINS (PINS) carries a five-year price target, an explicit set of assumptions (growth, terminal multiple, margin path), and a probability weight calibrated against current visibility.

How are PINS's probability weights set?

Probability weights start from a 25/50/25 default and are asymmetry-adjusted: when downside risk is elevated, base + bear gain weight; when visibility is high (long RPO, multi-year contracts), bull and base both gain.

What is PINS's expected return?

Expected return is the probability-weighted average of the three scenario returns. The expected-value table reports the weighted price, weighted return, and asymmetry to help the reader compare risk-reward against the rating band.

How do PINS's scenarios compare to private calibration references?

When our composite fair value differs from private calibration references by more than 30%, the calibration-divergence diagnostic is run to identify which assumptions drive the gap; the result is summarised in the parent valuation surface.

Direct answer

PINS trades against a final fair-value range of $12.20-$30.66, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $12.2, high $30.7, with mid-point at $21.2.

Stock analysis

PINS fair value $12–$31

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised byPeyman GhaderKourehpaz2026-05-19

分析日: 2026-05-19次回更新: 2026-08-19Methodology v2.4Data cut-off: 2026-05-19Quality gate: passSources: all material sources passed deterministic freshness/provenance gatesReview: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder

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株価

$18.84

▲ +2.39 (+12.69%)

公正価値

$21

$12–$31

評価

買い

confidence 82/100

上昇余地

+12.7%

upside to fair value

安全余裕率

$18.05

MoS level · 15%

時価総額

$10.6B

P/E fwd 8.4

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§1 エグゼクティブサマリー

Composite fair value $21 with high case $31.
Implied upside of 12.7% to fair value.
Moat 6.5/10 · confidence 82/100 · Mature compounder.
Trades at a measured discount to fair value with adequate margin of safety.

Fair value

$21

Margin of safety

+11.3%

Confidence

82/100

Moat

6.5/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$18.84Price

Low $12.20

Mid $21.23

High $30.66

PINS trades against a final fair-value range of $12.20-$30.66, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

High-intent visual discovery search behavior
High-intent visual discovery search behavior.
Proprietary, non-social intent data graph
Proprietary, non-social intent data graph.
Cycle upside
Retail ad spend migrating rapidly toward high-intent performance and shoppable formats.

§2 ベアケース

In a severe macro ad recession, Pinterest's asset-light nature protects core cash flow, but ARPU compression would stall GAAP profitability. Aggressive share repurchases provide a floor against multiple collapse.

このテーゼが崩れる経路

Stagnant User Growth

· Medium

MAU declines in core North American markets structurally limit absolute impression volume.

FV impact

Severe

Ad Budget Consolidation

· High

Advertisers retreat to dominant performance networks, stranding Pinterest as experimental spend.

FV impact

High

Partnership Execution Failure

· Low

Amazon integration fails to drive modeled yield improvements, capping ARPU ceilings.

FV impact

Moderate

監視すべき早期警戒シグナル
指標	現在	トリガーしきい値
ARPU growth decelerates below 10% year-over-year despite partnerships.	Monitor	Deterioration versus the report thesis
Operating margin expansion falls short of 200 bps annualized over 24 months.	Monitor	Deterioration versus the report thesis
Next twelve months (NTM) EPS fails to maintain the $2.23 trajectory.	Monitor	Deterioration versus the report thesis
Stock-based compensation materially outpaces free cash flow generation.	Monitor	Deterioration versus the report thesis
Active user base declines sequentially in high-value demographics.	Monitor	Deterioration versus the report thesis

§3 財務履歴

損益計算書 — 直近6期
項目	T−0	T−1	T−2	T−3	T−4	CAGR
期間	2021-12-31	2022-12-31	2023-12-31	2024-12-31	2025-12-31	Trend
売上高	—	$2.80B	$3.06B	$3.65B	$4.22B	+10.8%
売上総利益	—	$2.12B	$2.37B	$2.90B	$3.38B	+12.3%
営業利益	—	$-101.7M	$-125.7M	$179.8M	$319.9M	—
純利益	—	$-96.0M	$-35.6M	$1.86B	$416.9M	—
EPS (希薄化後)	$0.46	$-0.14	$-0.05	$2.67	—	+55.2%
EBITDA	—	$-55.2M	$-104.2M	$201.1M	$345.0M	—
研究開発	—	$949.0M	$1.07B	$1.24B	$1.43B	+10.7%
販管費	—	$1.28B	$1.42B	$1.48B	$1.63B	+6.3%

品質スコア

OCF / 純利益

3.08×

>1 は利益の質が高いことを示す

会計品質ゲート

Fail

セクター調整後ゲート

ROIC

5.1%

投下資本利益率

セクション 3

Numbers analysis

キャッシュフロー

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCF / net income, accounting-quality, and ROIC rows above.

資本配分

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

個人サブスクライバー — §4以降11セクション追加

完全な分析を読む — 11セクション追加。

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

カバー対象の全ティッカーの完全なレポート

24か月分の評価アーカイブ

ウォッチリストブリーフィング + 評価変更アラート

任意の言語でのPDF + DOCXエクスポート

無料トライアルを開始

いつでもキャンセル可能。

SCENARIOS FAQ

PINS scenarios questions

Each scenario for PINS (PINS) carries a five-year price target, an explicit set of assumptions (growth, terminal multiple, margin path), and a probability weight calibrated against current visibility.

FAQ

PINS — frequently asked questions

Based on our latest analysis, PINS looks modestly undervalued. The current price is $18.8 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $21.2 (range $12.2–$30.7), which implies roughly 12.7% upside to the midpoint.

Related coverage

Names readers of PINS also follow

Same archetype: mature-compounder

品質スコア

完全な分析を読む — 11セクション追加。

What are PINS's bull, base, and bear cases?

How are PINS's probability weights set?

What is PINS's expected return?

How do PINS's scenarios compare to private calibration references?

Is PINS overvalued?

What is PINS's fair value?

Should I buy PINS now?

What are the biggest risks for PINS?

What is PINS's rating?

What archetype is PINS?

Names readers of PINS also follow