任意の製品分析
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An easing of mortgage interest rates and reactivation of residential housing turnover would unlock deferred demand for new pool installations and high-ticket remodels, driving operating leverage across POOL's distribution sales centers to expand operating margins.
Sunbelt residential pool construction permits contracting sharply year-over-year alongside chemical price deflation.
Pool Corporation (POOL) trades at $172.57 (as of 2026-10-16), representing -3.3% upside to Fair value of $166.85, supporting a Hold rating amid balanced recurring maintenance stability and discretionary construction headwinds.4
Our intrinsic valuation of Pool Corporation yields a Fair value of $166.85 with Potential value of $194.51. At $172.57, the stock trades at -3.3% to Fair value. This balanced valuation aligns with our Hold recommendation, indicating that while downside is cushioned by durable maintenance cash flows, the market reflects near-term operating expectations.
Conversely, the remaining revenue derived from new pool construction and major backyard remodeling remains constrained by elevated mortgage interest rates and depressed existing home turnover. While H1 2026 sales increased to $2,960,952,000, gross margin contracted due to inbound freight and product mix. With valuation multiples reflecting peer premiums, the stock offers limited near-term valuation upside.357
Over 60% of POOL's revenue base is tied to non-discretionary maintenance, chemical sanitization, and equipment repair required to maintain existing pools, generating steady baseline cash flow regardless of macro housing cycles.7
An unmatched footprint of 455 distribution centers stocking over 200,000 SKUs provides local fulfillment proximity for 125,000 professional contractors, creating scale efficiencies that competitors cannot economically replicate.5
An asset-light distribution model requiring low capital expenditure ($56,334,000 in FY2025) allows POOL to consistently return excess cash through dividends ($184,916,000) and share repurchases ($346,286,000).7
Hold. At $172.57, POOL trades in line with Fair value of $166.85, where durable maintenance demand cushions downside but subdued discretionary housing activity limits near-term upside.
Pool Corporation is the world's largest wholesale distributor of swimming pool supplies, equipment, and related leisure products. As of June 30, 2026, the company operated 455 sales centers across North America, Europe, and Australia, distributing more than 200,000 brand-name and private-label products to approximately 125,000 professional wholesale customers.
POOL serves swimming pool builders, independent service and maintenance technicians, and specialty retail stores. In FY2025, consolidated net sales were $5,289,396,000, with the United States market contributing $4,900,465,000 (92.65% of net sales) and international operations accounting for $388,931,000 (7.35%).
Under an acute stress test combining a complete freeze in new residential pool construction with deflationary chemical pricing and inbound freight headwinds, POOL's top-line revenue would contract toward $5.0B-$5.1B, operating margins would compress from 10.97% to 8.0%, and annual diluted EPS would drop toward $8.50-$9.00. While non-discretionary recurring maintenance demand generates over $200M in cash flow to protect liquidity and service $1,535,031,000 in total debt, a multiple de-rating toward peer wholesale building distributor levels of 12.8x-14.6x would severely impair equity valuation.
High interest rates persist, severely suppressing new pool installations and discretionary upgrades. Sub-scale price competition and input cost deflation compress gross margins, limiting EPS growth and causing valuation multiples to contract toward lower-growth distributor peers.
In Q2 2026, gross margin dropped 30 bps to 29.7%, while operating expenses rose 4% to $273.1M. Operating margin in FY2025 was 10.97%. A 300 bps compression to 8.0% drops operating income to ~$435M on $5.44B revenue, significantly reducing free cash flow.
投資判断を弱める5つの変化です。
Deflation in sanitizing chemicals and rising freight expenses overwhelming branch pricing discipline, eroding distributor gross profitability.
現在:29.7% in Q2 2026
警戒条件Gross margin falling below 28.5% for two consecutive quarters
Pool Corporation earns a Narrow economic moat rating rooted in scale advantages across its wholesale distribution network and the non-discretionary recurring maintenance demand generated by an expanding installed swimming pool base. With 455 sales centers worldwide as of June 30, 2026, POOL operates as the primary supply conduit between fragmented equipment manufacturers and approximately 125,000 professional pool builders and independent maintenance contractors.
The distribution footprint enables same-day product pickup and dense regional delivery for more than 200,000 SKUs, providing a service standard that sub-scale regional distributors cannot economically duplicate. Because commercial and residential pools require continuous sanitization and filtration to prevent algae formation and structural degradation, roughly 60% of POOL's revenue base is non-discretionary, buffering operating profit even as higher interest rates suppress new in-ground construction permits.
While manufacturing peers like Snap-on (25.40% operating margin) command higher pricing power from proprietary patents, POOL achieves superior capital turnover with minimal capital expenditures ($56,334,000 in FY2025). This capital-light distribution model generated an 18.5% ROIC on $2,384,682,000 of invested capital in FY2025, exceeding its 8.26% WACC and sustaining durable competitive advantages.
POOL generated an estimated 18.5% return on invested capital in FY2025 on $2,384,682,000 of invested capital. This comfortably exceeds the company's computed weighted average cost of capital of 8.26% and moderate cost of equity of 9.33%, proving substantial economic value creation across housing cycles.26
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($166.85). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $387.8M after modeled reinvestment of $68.4M, with terminal value at 79.3% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
The modal expected path where non-discretionary maintenance demand provides a stable baseline, while new pool construction recovers gradually alongside housing turnover. Ongoing share buybacks and steady dividend growth support mid-single-digit EPS expansion through FY2030.
A decisive earnings beat driven by volume acceleration in building materials and discretionary equipment upgrades would indicate an inflection in housing turnover and justify modeling an accelerated top-line path.
In-line results confirm the resilience of maintenance revenue but demonstrate that high mortgage rates continue to suppress discretionary pool additions, keeping the risk/reward profile balanced around current market prices.
A material quarterly earnings miss driven by gross margin erosion and volume contraction would signal competitive price erosion, requiring downward revisions to terminal operating margins and valuation multiples.
High earnings quality supported by disciplined cash flow conversion. FY2025 GAAP net income of $406,404,000 converted into $365,850,000 of operating cash flow and $309,516,000 of free cash flow. Second quarter 2026 results demonstrated clean reporting with transparent reconciliation of $8,262,000 ($0.21 per share) in pre-tax CEO transition costs.567
Sell-side consensus estimate revisions have flattened post-Q2 2026 results. FY2026 EPS consensus was slightly adjusted from $11.00 to $11.00 while FY2026 revenue consensus edged from $5.44B to $5.44B. For FY2027, EPS consensus moderated from $11.81 to $11.76 alongside revenue consensus of $5.62B, reflecting realistic assumptions of gradual multi-year housing recovery.1
Primary barometer of pricing power, private-label chemical penetration, and freight cost absorption.
The company's distribution model requires minimal maintenance capital expenditures, averaging approximately 1.0% of revenue ($56,334,000 in FY2025). This generated $309,516,000 in free cash flow in FY2025. Working capital shows pronounced seasonality; in the first half of 2026, product inventories peaked at $1,378,695,000 to support peak spring/summer contractor stocking, resulting in minor operating cash usage of $748,000, before unwinding into strong cash inflows in Q3 and Q4.567
POOL exhibits disciplined capital allocation focused on returning excess cash to shareholders while reinvesting modestly in network expansion. In FY2025, operating cash flow of $365,850,000 funded $56,334,000 in , $184,916,000 in cash dividends, and $346,286,000 in repurchases. Capital returns exceeded of $406,404,000, financed by operating cash generation and existing liquidity. Total debt stood at $1,535,031,000, with FY2025 of $46,770,000 covered 12.4x by of $580,204,000.
POOL generated an estimated 18.5% ROIC on $2,384,682,000 of invested capital in FY2025. While down from pandemic peaks (15.7%-16.6% operating margins in FY2021-FY2022), it remains higher than the pre-2020 historical range of 9.95% to 10.67%, demonstrating stable structural returns on capital.
ROIC of ~18.5% exceeds computed WACC of 8.26% and moderate cost of equity of 9.33% by over 900 basis points, confirming continued economic profit creation across the 455 branch network.
FY2025 free cash flow reached $309,516,000 on $56,334,000 of .
| 売上高 | $1,822,938,000 |
|---|---|
| 売上原価 | $1,282,176,000 |
| 売上総利益 | $540,762,000 |
| 営業費用 | $273,083,000 |
| 営業利益 | $267,679,000 |
| 営業外項目および税金 | -$79,590,000 |
| 純利益 | $188,089,000 |
| 総資産 | $3,626,126,000 |
|---|---|
| 現金 | $104,963,000 |
| 流動資産 | $1,969,864,000 |
| 負債合計 | $2,440,897,000 |
| 流動負債 | $880,285,000 |
| 株主資本 | $1,185,229,000 |
| 純利益 | $406,404,000 |
|---|---|
| 営業キャッシュ流入 | $480,742,000 |
| 減価償却費 | $51,605,000 |
| 株式報酬 | $22,733,000 |
| 営業キャッシュフロー | $365,850,000 |
| 営業キャッシュ流出 | $114,892,000 |
| 利用可能現金 | $446,134,000 |
| 期首現金 | $77,862,000 |
| 為替レートの影響 | $2,422,000 |
| 投資キャッシュ流出 | $67,792,000 |
| 設備投資 | $56,334,000 |
| その他の投資活動 | $11,458,000 |
| 財務キャッシュ流出 | $273,379,000 |
| 期末現金 | $104,963,000 |
| 投資キャッシュフロー | -$67,792,000 |
| 財務キャッシュフロー | -$273,379,000 |
出典: SEC EDGAR · 提出日 2026-07-23 · SEC EDGAR
| 事業カテゴリー別売上高 | 売上高 | 構成比 | 前年比 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cost of | 12.8億 | 70.3% | — |
| Other | 5.4億 | 29.7% | — |
出典: SEC EDGAR · 提出日 2026-02-26 · SEC EDGAR
| 地域別売上高 | 売上高 | 構成比 | 前年比 |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $49億 | 92.6% | -0.7% |
| Non Us | $3.9億 | 7.4% | 4% |
2026-10-18の分析で使用した時点財務データ。
| 期間 | 売上高 | EBITDA | 純利益 | 営業キャッシュフロー | フリーキャッシュフロー | 設備投資 | 減価償却費 | 株式報酬 | 自社株買い | 支払配当金 | 純有利子負債調達 | 投資キャッシュフロー | 財務キャッシュフロー | 期首現金 | 期末現金 | 現金および投資 | 総負債 | 営業利益率 | ROIC | WACC | ROIC−WACCスプレッド |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-12-31 | $25.7億 | $2.8億 | $1.5億 | $1.7億 | $1.3億 | $3435.2万 | $2197.7万 | $990.2万 | $1.8億 | $4974.9万 | — | -$5564.3万 | -$9967.2万 | — | $2195.6万 | $2347.7万 | $4.4億 | 10.0% | — | 5.7% | — |
| 2017-12-31 | $27.9億 | $3.1億 | $1.9億 | $1.8億 | $1.4億 | $3939万 | $2572.5万 | $1248.2万 | $1.5億 | $5802.9万 | — | -$5222万 | -$1.1億 | $2195.6万 | $2994万 | $3152.5万 | $5.2億 | 10.2% | — | 5.5% | — |
| 2018-12-31 | $30億 | $3.4億 | $2.3億 | $1.2億 | $8707.6万 | $3158万 | $2791.5万 | $1287.4万 | $1.9億 | $6943万 | — | -$3415.8万 | -$9757.1万 | $2994万 | $1635.8万 | $1873.6万 | $6.7億 | 10.5% | — | 6.0% | — |
| 2019-12-31 | $32億 | $3.7億 | $2.6億 | $3億 | $2.7億 | $3336.2万 | $2927.4万 | $1347.2万 | $2318.8万 | $8377.2万 | — | -$4226.3万 | -$2.4億 | $1635.8万 | $2858.3万 | $2923.8万 | $6.9億 | 10.7% | — | 5.1% | — |
| 2020-12-31 | $39.4億 | $4.9億 | $3.7億 | $4億 | $3.8億 | $2170.2万 | $2939.8万 | $1451.6万 | $7619.9万 | $9192.9万 | — | -$1.5億 | -$2.4億 | $2858.3万 | $3412.8万 | $3435.1万 | $6.2億 | 11.8% | — | 4.5% | — |
| 2021-12-31 | $53億 | $8.6億 | $6.5億 | $3.1億 | $2.8億 | $3765.8万 | $3002.6万 | $1518.7万 | $1.4億 | $1.2億 | — | -$8.5億 | $5.3億 | $3412.8万 | $2432.1万 | $2432.1万 | $14.3億 | 15.7% | — | 5.4% | — |
| 2022-12-31 | $61.8億 | $10.6億 | $7.5億 | $4.8億 | $4.4億 | $4361.9万 | $3902.5万 | $1487.9万 | $4.7億 | $1.5億 | $1.9億 | -$5087万 | -$4.1億 | $2432.1万 | $4559.1万 | $4559.1万 | $16.6億 | 16.6% | — | 7.6% | — |
| 2023-12-31 | $55.4億 | $7.9億 | $5.2億 | $8.9億 | $8.3億 | $6009.6万 | $4014万 | $1958.2万 | $3.1億 | $1.7億 | -$3.3億 | -$7159.7万 | -$8億 | $4559.1万 | $6654万 | $6654万 | $13.6億 | 13.5% | — | 8.1% | — |
| 2024-12-31 | $53.1億 | $6.6億 | $4.3億 | $6.6億 | $6億 | $5947.6万 | $4548.1万 | $1924.8万 | $3.1億 | $1.8億 | -$8413万 | -$6616.9万 | -$5.8億 | $6654万 | $7786.2万 | $7786.2万 | $12.7億 | 11.6% | — | 8.6% | — |
| 2025-12-31 | $52.9億 | $6.3億 | $4.1億 | $3.7億 | $3.1億 | $5633.4万 | $5160.5万 | $2273.3万 | $3.5億 | $1.8億 | $2.5億 | -$6779.2万 | -$2.7億 | $7786.2万 | $1億 | $1億 | $15.4億 | 11.0% | — | 7.4% | — |
Pool Corporation (POOL) trades at 17.1x forward earnings against a peer median of 15.9x. Its EV/EBITDA of 12.3x compares with a peer median of 12.1x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Stanley Black & Decker Inc., A. O. Smith Corporation, IDEX Corporation and Snap-on Incorporated, as of 2026-10-17 to 2026-10-18.
Industry capital-intensity, capacity, and lead-time benchmarks are unavailable in current data, so the cycle view is demand-led and evidence-limited. Following peak demand in FY2021-FY2022, POOL's revenue contracted from $6.18B to $5.29B in FY2025, stabilizing in H1 2026 with 4% growth to $2.96B.57
A decline in mortgage interest rates stimulates existing home sales and unlocks homeowner equity, accelerating in-ground pool construction permits and deferred high-margin equipment modernizations.
A prolonged freeze in residential housing turnover caused by persistent mortgage rate lock-in and elevated consumer borrowing costs extends the slump in new pool permits, leading to distributor discounting and branch fixed-cost de-leverage.
POOL maintains strong market positioning as the dominant distributor across primary US Sunbelt migration corridors. With 92.65% of net sales generated in the United States ($4,900,465,000 in FY2025), the company's financial results are insulated from foreign trade and currency disputes, while non-US operations ($388,931,000 in FY2025) offer incremental growth in European leisure markets.8
A neutral allocation of 2-3% of portfolio equity reflects balanced risk/reward at $172.57. High cash conversion and installed base durability prevent downside deterioration, but lack of valuation discount warrants capital preservation over aggressive positioning.4
Maintain disciplined portfolio exposure to POOL. Enforce strict risk discipline against sudden gross margin deterioration. Avoid averaging down into declining share prices without an expanded valuation discount.
With shares trading near $166.85 relative to $172.57, POOL lacks an adequate valuation buffer given its forward earnings multiple. Value-oriented investors should await a meaningful price discount before accumulating.4
POOL's dividend payout is safe and well-covered by free cash flow ($309.52M in FY2025 vs $184.92M paid), but the moderate yield warrants holding existing shares rather than initiating an income position.67
Near-term EPS expansion is constrained to low-single digits ($10.85 in FY2025 to $11.00 in FY2026). Growth investors should await confirmed inflection in Sunbelt housing permits before building exposure.17
We initiate coverage on Pool Corporation (POOL) with a Hold rating and a Fair value of $166.85. At $172.57 (as of 2026-10-16), the stock trades at -3.3% to Fair value. While recurring maintenance cash flows protect downside, sluggish discretionary pool construction limits near-term capital appreciation.4
Investors holding POOL should maintain current positions while awaiting either a meaningful valuation pullback or clear inflection in new pool construction permits before deploying fresh capital.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
POOL's revenue contracted from $6.18B in FY2022 to $5.29B in FY2025. Analyst revenue consensus for FY2027 was revised down to $5.62B. If Sunbelt pool construction permits decline sharply, top-line growth stalls 5pp below the modeled 3.5%-4.5% path.17
Peer mature building and equipment manufacturers trade below 15x forward earnings, with AOS at 14.60x and SWK at 14.68x. If POOL's EPS growth stalls near 2-3%, its premium multiple of 17.09x de-rates by 20% to 12.8x.34
Non-discretionary maintenance demand failing to buffer the persistent downturn in discretionary pool construction and remodeling permits.
現在:$5,289,396,000 in FY2025
警戒条件Annual consolidated revenue falling below $5,100,000,000
Operating expense de-leverage across the 455 sales center branch network amid flat or negative shipment volumes.
現在:10.97% in FY2025
警戒条件Operating margin compressing below 9.5%
Severe working capital lockup in unsold inventory or margin compression impairing cash conversion required for dividends, buybacks, and debt service.
現在:$309,516,000 in FY2025
警戒条件Annual free cash flow dropping below $225,000,000
Acute European economic downturn or distribution footprint disruption requiring geographic impairment.
現在:$388,931,000 in FY2025
警戒条件Annual non-US revenue contracting by more than 15% year-over-year
| low |
| 12 to 18 months |
| Vendor diversification, expansion of proprietary private-label chemical formulations, and disciplined branch inventory turns protect dollar gross profits, keeping gross margin at 29.7% in Q2 2026.5 |
Under the moderate discount rate, $40.49 comes from forecast-period earnings and $144 from the long-term value, totaling $185.
Project EPS through the explicit advantage period, fade growth as competition catches up, and discount the full stream at cost of equity.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward EPS path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and terminal value at WACC, then adjust for signed net debt per current share.
Discounted forecast-period cash flows ($47.95) plus discounted terminal value ($183) minus signed per current share ($39.35) equals the $192 lens value shown above. Negative net debt is , so subtracting it raises value.
Discount the explicit dividend path and its Gordon-growth terminal value at cost of equity.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
Multiply the peer median PEG by this stock's forecast growth to derive an implied forward P/E, then apply it to forward EPS.
Mortgage interest rates decline, releasing pent-up demand for new residential pool construction and major backyard renovations. Accelerated contractor adoption of premium variable-speed equipment and private-label water treatment expands branch gross margins, driving robust EPS expansion by FY2030.
Validates post-summer seasonal cash realization necessary to sustain share repurchases and dividends.
Branch network density deepens competitive barriers and drives local contractor customer retention.
Confirms insulation from foreign trade friction while monitoring European distribution performance.
| $5.85B |
| $6.11B |
| $6.38B |
| Revenue growth | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% |
| Operating margin | 11.0% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 11.4% | 11.5% |
| Operating income | $598.47M | $629.65M | $660.68M | $696.52M | $734.25M |
| Tax rate | 23.8% | 23.8% | 23.8% | 23.8% | 23.8% |
| NOPAT | $456.22M | $479.98M | $503.64M | $530.96M | $559.72M |
| Reinvestment | $68.43M | $67.20M | $65.47M | $63.71M | $67.17M |
| Reinvestment rate (of NOPAT) | 15.0% | 14.0% | 13.0% | 12.0% | 12.0% |
| Free cash flow to firm | $387.78M | $412.78M | $438.16M | $467.24M | $492.55M |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
Operating income in FY2025 was $580,204,000 (10.97% margin), while Q2 2026 gross margin was 29.7%.
Operating margins have normalized well above pre-2020 levels (9.95%-10.67%), validating structural gains from digital systems and scale procurement.
In FY2025, US revenue was $4,900,465,000 (92.65%) while international revenue was $388,931,000 (7.35%).
Minimal foreign exchange sensitivity and tariff exposure, but tight dependence on domestic housing turnover and consumer borrowing.
| マージン |
|---|
| POOL | Pool Corporation | $6.3B | 17.1x | 1.2x | 12.3x | 31.3% | — |
| SWK | Stanley Black & Decker Inc. | $14.0B | 14.7x | 0.9x | 10.4x | 6.9% | 8.4% |
| AOS | A. O. Smith Corporation | $8.0B | 14.6x | 2.1x | 10.9x | 27.1% | 18.9% |
| IEX | IDEX Corporation | $17.4B | 24.5x | 4.8x | 19.2x | 13.0% | 22.2% |
| SNA | Snap-on Incorporated | $19.0B | 17.1x | 3.6x | 13.2x | 17.9% | 25.4% |
| Consolidated revenue declining on an annualized basis |
| Re-examine core maintenance demand durability and reduce terminal growth assumption. |
| Net Debt to EBITDA | Net debt to EBITDA expanding beyond target leverage range | Model reduced share buyback activity and increase debt service cost assumptions. |
| Non-US Revenue Contribution | Non-US revenue contracting sharply year-over-year | Review European operations for geographic impairment or network rationalization. |
