任意の製品分析
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FY2027 revenue and adjusted EPS reaching their upper estimate endpoints, while operating cash remains above profit, would support a longer earnings runway.
Trailing operating cash falls below $1.00 per $1.00 of profit while debt remains material; $0.80 or less is the thesis-breaking level.
Buy. At the $198.81 report-date price on 2026-09-08, RTX was below $222.19 Fair value; Potential value is $312.93.3
The main risk begins if operating cash falls below $1.00 per $1.00 of profit while debt remains material. Pause additions below $1.00 and reassess Buy at $0.80 or less.3
The clearest upside is FY2027 revenue and adjusted EPS reaching their upper estimate endpoints while cash generation remains strong.
The favorable cycle requires product and service sales to reach the FY2027 revenue estimate, spreading fixed costs across more volume and lifting profit.15
Buy because the dated FY2027 revenue and adjusted-EPS estimates support the near-term growth path, provided cash generation remains strong.1
The favorable cycle requires product and service sales to support the FY2027 revenue estimate. Meeting that estimate would confirm forecast delivery through the dated estimate window, without proving growth beyond it.15
Buy: the report-date price is below Fair value, but reassess if cash falls to $0.80 per $1.00 of profit; FY2027 estimates provide the upside.13
RTX CORPORATION manufactures and service its products in approximately 225 manufacturing, production, or overhaul facilities in approximately 25 countries, including the U.S. RTX CORPORATION has substantial U.S. government sales, which the company conducts through all three of its business segments. In addition, as a global company, all three of its business segments have substantial international sales. See “Note 20: Segment Financial Data” within Item 8 of this Form 10-K for additional information. Its worldwide operations can be affected by industrial, economic, and political factors on both a regional and global level.
Its operations include original equipment manufacturer (OEM) and extensive related aftermarket parts and services related to its aerospace operations. Its defense business serves both domestic and international customers primarily as a prime contractor or subcontractor on a broad portfolio of defense and related programs for government customers.
FY2025 debt of $39.51 billion makes weak cash generation more costly for shareholders. The 26.04x forward P/E as of 2026-09-09 makes slower growth more costly for shareholders.
This path becomes credible if annual sales growth stays below 3% for two consecutive fiscal years and cash generation weakens relative to reported profit.
Trailing operating cash at or below $0.80 per $1.00 of profit would weaken debt coverage and repurchase capacity while debt remains material.
A forward P/E below 20x within 12 months would reduce value per earnings dollar even if near-term estimates are delivered.
投資判断を弱める5つの変化です。
Sustained weak sales would shorten the period of earnings growth assumed after FY2027, reducing revenue, profit and cash support for the valuation.
現在:FY2027 analyst mean: $103.18 billion, as of and retrieved 2026-09-09T10:08:42Z.
警戒条件Below 3% for two consecutive fiscal years.
RTX has no established structural moat. Reported sales, cash generation and dated estimates support the near-term case, but they do not show switching costs, network effects, cost advantage or efficient scale.
FY2025 product revenue was $64.17 billion, while service revenue was $24.43 billion. This mix supports scale today but does not prove that competitors cannot erode future growth.
Strong cash generation can support value, but it is an operating outcome rather than evidence of a durable competitive barrier.
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($222.19). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $9.4B after modeled capex of $2.6B, with terminal value at 71.5% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
The path fails if either FY2027 measure falls below its analyst mean as of 2026-09-09.1
Revenue and adjusted EPS above their FY2027 analyst ranges as of 2026-09-09 would be forecast outperformance, but would not by themselves prove stronger demand or better sales-to-profit conversion.
Delivery near the analyst means supports the near-term case without proving a longer growth period.
Revenue or adjusted EPS below its FY2027 analyst range as of 2026-09-09 would be forecast underperformance and weaken the near-term case without proving which operating factor caused the miss.
The accounting snapshot dated 2026-09-06 shows operating cash exceeded reported profit. FY2025 debt still limits how much cash can support repurchases or acquisitions.3
The accounting snapshot dated 2026-09-06 shows operating cash exceeded reported profit, supporting the view that earnings were backed by cash. FY2025 debt of $39.51 billion against $7.44 billion of cash remains the main constraint.34
Diluted average shares rose from 1.3436 billion in FY2024 to 1.3564 billion in FY2025, while stock compensation was $519 million. Do not assume automatic net retirement.
The accepted evidence supports cash generation and debt analysis, but not a like-for-like return-on-capital trend.
A comparable spread is not stated. WACC was 7.2035% as of 2026-09-09, computed and retrieved 2026-09-09T10:09:54Z.
FY2025 revenue was $88.60 billion and operating income was $9.30 billion, filed 2026-02-06 and retrieved 2026-09-09T10:08:09Z.
FY2027 estimates begin from a stronger reported base.
The snapshot compares operating cash with reported profit and shows cash generation was higher.
FY2025 capital spending and debt service should rank ahead of discretionary cash uses; the evidence does not establish how much cash remains after those obligations.
| 売上高 | $88,603,000,000 |
|---|---|
| 売上原価 | $70,814,000,000 |
| 売上総利益 | $17,789,000,000 |
| 営業費用 | $8,489,000,000 |
| 営業利益 | $9,300,000,000 |
| 営業外項目および税金 | -$2,568,000,000 |
| 純利益 | $6,732,000,000 |
| 総資産 | $171,079,000,000 |
|---|---|
| 現金 | $7,435,000,000 |
| 流動資産 | $60,332,000,000 |
| 負債合計 | $103,941,000,000 |
| 流動負債 | $58,784,000,000 |
| 株主資本 | $67,102,000,000 |
| 純利益 | $6,732,000,000 |
|---|---|
| 営業キャッシュ流入 | $11,629,000,000 |
| 減価償却費 | $4,378,000,000 |
| 株式報酬 | $519,000,000 |
| 営業キャッシュフロー | $10,567,000,000 |
| 営業キャッシュ流出 | $1,062,000,000 |
| 利用可能現金 | $16,221,000,000 |
| 期首現金 | $5,606,000,000 |
| 為替レートの影響 | $48,000,000 |
| 投資キャッシュ流出 | $1,265,000,000 |
| 財務キャッシュ流出 | $7,486,000,000 |
| 自社株買い | $50,000,000 |
| 支払配当金 | $3,574,000,000 |
| 純有利子負債返済 | $3,429,000,000 |
| その他の財務活動 | $433,000,000 |
| 期末現金 | $7,470,000,000 |
| 投資キャッシュフロー | -$1,265,000,000 |
| 財務キャッシュフロー | -$7,486,000,000 |
出典: SEC EDGAR · 提出日 2026-02-06 · SEC EDGAR
| 事業カテゴリー別売上高 | 売上高 | 構成比 | 前年比 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Product | $641.7億 | 72.4% | 7.6% |
| Service | $244.3億 | 27.6% | 15.6% |
出典: SEC EDGAR · 提出日 2026-02-06 · SEC EDGAR
| 地域別売上高 | 売上高 | 構成比 | 前年比 |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $472.9億 | 53.4% | 2.6% |
| Europe | $188億 | 21.2% | 17.7% |
| Asia Pacific | $137.8億 | 15.6% | 26.5% |
| Other Geographic Regions | $51.1億 | 5.8% | 18.2% |
| Middle East And North Africa | $36.2億 | 4.1% | 4.7% |
2026-09-09の分析で使用した時点財務データ。
| 期間 | 売上高 | EBITDA | 純利益 | 営業キャッシュフロー | フリーキャッシュフロー | 設備投資 | 減価償却費 | 株式報酬 | 自社株買い | 支払配当金 | 純有利子負債調達 | 投資キャッシュフロー | 財務キャッシュフロー | 期首現金 | 期末現金 | 現金および投資 | 総負債 | 営業利益率 | ROIC | WACC | ROIC−WACCスプレッド |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-12-31 | $572.4億 | $102.6億 | $50.6億 | $38.8億 | $21.8億 | $17億 | $19.6億 | $1.5億 | $22.5億 | $20.7億 | — | -$25.1億 | -$11.9億 | — | $71.6億 | $71.6億 | $233億 | 14.4% | — | 5.5% | — |
| 2017-12-31 | $598.4億 | $109.2億 | $45.5億 | $56.3億 | $36.2億 | $20.1億 | $21.4億 | $1.9億 | $14.5億 | $20.7億 | — | -$30.2億 | -$9.9億 | $71.6億 | $61.2億 | $89.9億 | $270.9億 | 13.6% | — | 5.4% | — |
| 2018-12-31 | $347億 | $55.8億 | $52.7億 | $63.2億 | $48.6億 | $14.7億 | $19億 | $1.7億 | $3.3億 | $21.7億 | — | -$172.6億 | $122.1億 | $61.2億 | $37.3億 | $36.9億 | $440.7億 | 8.3% | — | 6.0% | — |
| 2019-12-31 | $453.5億 | $85.7億 | $55.4億 | $88.8億 | $70.2億 | $18.7億 | $27.1億 | $2.7億 | $1.5億 | $24.4億 | — | -$26.8億 | -$19.1億 | $37.3億 | $49.6億 | $49.4億 | $409.6億 | 10.8% | — | 5.7% | — |
| 2020-12-31 | $565.9億 | $32.1億 | -$35.2億 | $36.1億 | $18.1億 | $18億 | $41.6億 | $3.3億 | $4700万 | $27.3億 | — | $33.4億 | -$38.6億 | $49.6億 | $88.3億 | $88億 | $315.8億 | -3.3% | — | — | — |
| 2021-12-31 | $643.9億 | $110億 | $38.6億 | $70.7億 | $49.4億 | $21.3億 | $45.6億 | $4.4億 | $23.3億 | $29.6億 | — | -$13.6億 | -$66.9億 | $88.3億 | $78.5億 | $78.3億 | $313.5億 | 8.0% | — | 5.8% | — |
| 2022-12-31 | $670.7億 | $115.3億 | $52億 | $71.7億 | $48.8億 | $22.9億 | $41.1億 | $4.2億 | $28億 | $31.3億 | $4.9億 | -$28.3億 | -$58.6億 | $78.5億 | $62.9億 | $62.2億 | $312.9億 | 8.2% | — | 7.7% | — |
| 2023-12-31 | $689.2億 | $35.6億 | $32億 | $78.8億 | $54.7億 | $24.2億 | $42.1億 | $4.3億 | $128.7億 | $32.4億 | $118.1億 | -$30.4億 | -$45.3億 | $62.9億 | $66.3億 | $65.9億 | $436.4億 | 5.2% | — | 7.5% | — |
| 2024-12-31 | $807.4億 | $125.3億 | $47.7億 | $71.6億 | $45.3億 | $26.3億 | $43.6億 | $4.4億 | $4.4億 | $32.2億 | -$25億 | -$15.3億 | -$66.2億 | $66.3億 | $56.1億 | $55.8億 | $410.8億 | 8.1% | — | 7.9% | — |
| 2025-12-31 | $886億 | $149.5億 | $67.3億 | $105.7億 | $79.4億 | $26.3億 | $43.8億 | $5.2億 | $5000万 | $35.7億 | -$34.3億 | -$12.7億 | -$74.9億 | $56.1億 | $74.7億 | $74.4億 | $395.1億 | 10.5% | — | 6.7% | — |
RTX Corporation (RTX) trades at 26.0x forward earnings against a peer median of 21.4x. Its EV/EBITDA of 18.9x compares with a peer median of 16.9x. The comparison uses 4 peers: GE Aerospace, TransDigm Group Incorporated, General Dynamics Corporation and Northrop Grumman Corporation, as of 2026-09-09.
The industry benchmark showed capital spending at 0.8% of revenue and 0.95 times depreciation as of 2026-09-01, retrieved 2026-09-01 04:00:14.
The favorable cycle requires product and service sales to support the FY2027 revenue estimate. Meeting that estimate would confirm forecast delivery through the dated estimate window, without proving growth beyond it.
Reported geographic breadth may not cushion a broad slowdown. The United States and Europe were material disclosed geographies, but the disclosure does not show how regional weakness would affect sales, profit margins or cash.
RTX is positioned for demand-led growth through FY2027, but the case should fade afterward unless sales and profit establish a longer runway.
Moderate position; no fixed portfolio percentage is supported. The Buy rating has upside to Fair value, but debt, valuation dispersion and limited visibility after FY2027 argue for staged exposure.3
Maintain the position while trailing operating cash stays above $0.80 per $1.00 of profit. Add only when cash exceeds profit, FY2027 analyst estimates as of 2026-09-09 are met and debt declines. Pause additions below $1.00 and reassess Buy at $0.80 or less.
The report-date price is below Fair value, while FY2027 revenue and EPS estimates support the near-term path.1
FY2025 operating cash exceeded reported profit, although debt requires staged exposure.3
Buy in stages below $222.19 Fair value and require operating delivery before adding near $312.93 Potential value.
Buy reflects $222.19 Fair value versus the $198.81 report-date price.3
Maintain Buy while trailing operating cash stays above $0.80 per $1.00 of profit. Add only when cash exceeds profit, FY2027 estimates are met and debt declines; pause additions below $1.00 and reassess at $0.80 or less.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Less cash from each profit dollar would constrain debt service and repurchases, raising financing sensitivity and reducing equity cash availability.
現在:FY2025: $1.57 of operating cash per $1.00 of reported profit.
警戒条件At or below $0.80 over the trailing 12 months.
A lower multiple would reduce value per share despite near-term delivery, indicating weaker expected growth duration relative to peers.
現在:26.04x on 2026-09-09, retrieved 2026-09-09T10:08:42Z.
警戒条件Below 20x within 12 months.
A result below the analyst range observed as of 2026-09-09 would show that per-share profit underperformed the forecast and weaken support for extending earnings growth beyond FY2027.
現在:Analyst mean $7.86; range $7.33-$8.20, as of and retrieved 2026-09-09T10:08:42Z.
警戒条件Reported FY2027 adjusted EPS below $7.33.
Rising shares would dilute each investor's claim on profit, leaving per-share growth below companywide profit growth despite operating progress elsewhere.
現在:FY2025 diluted average: 1.3564 billion, filed 2026-02-06 and retrieved 2026-09-09T10:08:09Z.
警戒条件Any year-over-year increase through FY2027.
Limitation: Terminal value is 76.1% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Under the moderate discount rate, $68.66 comes from forecast-period earnings and $180 from the long-term value, totaling $249.
Project EPS through the explicit advantage period, fade growth as competition catches up, and discount the full stream at cost of equity.
Limitation: Terminal value is 81.7% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward EPS path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and terminal value at WACC, then adjust for signed net debt per current share.
Limitation: Terminal value is 71.5% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Multiply the peer median PEG by this stock's forecast growth to derive an implied forward P/E, then apply it to forward EPS.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
That result would support a longer earnings runway. The case would weaken if either FY2027 measure missed its upper endpoint as of 2026-09-09 or operating cash no longer exceeded reported profit relative to that 2026-09-06 baseline.1
Shows how much sales become per-share profit.1
Weakening would reduce debt and repurchase capacity.3
Lower debt would free more cash for shareholders.3
Rising shares dilute per-share profit.4
| $108.85B |
| $113.74B |
| $117.88B |
| Operating income | $10.09B | $10.83B | $11.42B | $11.94B | $12.37B |
| NOPAT | $8.24B | $8.84B | $9.33B | $9.75B | $10.10B |
| Residual cash after reinvestment policy | $8.24B | $8.84B | $9.33B | $9.75B | $10.10B |
| Revenue growth | 8.5% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.6% |
| Operating margin | 10.5% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 10.5% |
| Tax rate | 18.3% | 18.3% | 18.3% | 18.3% | 18.3% |
| Reinvestment rate | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Terminal growth | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% |
| マージン |
|---|
| RTX | RTX Corporation | $270.6B | 26.0x | 2.9x | 18.9x | 12.3% | — |
| GE | GE Aerospace | 36.9x | 6.9x | 31.2x | 48.2% | 20.6% | |
| TDG | TransDigm Group Incorporated | 23.7x | 6.3x | 18.5x | — | 46.0% | |
| GD | General Dynamics Corporation | 19.2x | 1.8x | 15.3x | 17.8% | 10.4% | |
| NOC | Northrop Grumman Corporation | 17.0x | 1.7x | 12.2x | 27.0% | 11.6% |
