Shopify Inc. (SHOP)

NASDAQ: SHOP · USD

$168

+2.17 (+1.3%)· Recorded snapshot

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StockMarketAgent Research · Analyzed 2026-09-25

Our latest published analysis: SHOP rated Sell

Shopify Inc.'s published Sell conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.

Fair value

$30.7 / share

Potential value

$41.4 / share

Upside to FV

-78.5%

from $168

Moat

9/10

Wide

Read full analysis →View archive · 24mo

9-phase methodology · same model in each published edition

Market cap	$184.7B
Revenue (ttm)	13.3B
Net income (ttm)	1.9B
EPS (ttm)	$1.48
Shares out	1.3B
P/E (trailing)	113.4x
P/E (forward)	61.0x
Volume	4,647,035
Beta	2.62

Market data

Price

Recent price action with selectable time range.

Financial snapshot

Revenue (ttm): 13.3B
Net income (ttm): 1.9B
EPS (ttm): $1.48
P/E (trailing): 113.4x
P/E (forward): 61.0x
Market cap: $184.7B

Item	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5	Trend
Period	2021-12-31	2022-12-31	2023-12-31	2024-12-31	2025-12-31	Trend
Revenue	$4.61B	$5.60B	$7.06B	$8.88B	$11.56B	+25.8%
Gross profit	$2.48B	$2.75B	$3.52B	$4.47B	$5.56B	+22.3%
Operating income	$3.14B	$-822.0M	$-1.42B	$1.08B	$1.47B	-17.3%
Net income	$2.91B	$-3.46B	$132.0M	$2.02B	$1.23B	-19.4%
EPS (diluted)	$0.64	$-2.73	$0.10	$1.55	$0.94	+10.1%
EBITDA	$3.21B	$-594.0M	$144.0M	$1.34B	$1.54B	-16.8%
R&D	$854.4M	$1.50B	$1.73B	$1.37B	$1.54B	+15.8%
SG&A	$374.8M	$708.0M	$491.0M	$410.0M	$471.0M	+5.9%

Ticker	Name	Market cap	P/E	P/S	ROIC	5Y rev CAGR	1Y total return	Rating
AAPL	Apple Inc.	5T	39.4x	10.8x	101.6%	+6.1%	+28.5%	売り
ABNB	Airbnb, Inc.	97.8B	37.5x	7.4x	16.8%	+24.4%	+28.5%	売り
ADBE	Adobe Inc.	97.1B	13.9x	3.7x	57.2%	+11.5%	-30.7%	強い買い
ACN	Accenture plc	144.3B	18.0x	2.0x	27.9%	+8.0%	+0.4%	ホールド
ADI	Analog Devices, Inc.	207.6B	50.9x	14.8x	11.0%	+16.4%	+76.9%	売り
AI	C3.ai, Inc.	2B	—	8.4x	-35.6%	+3.6%	-33.6%	売り

Base and Bull scenarios

Base60%

Price target

$30.70

-78.5% from spot

In the Base scenario, Shopify compounds durable revenue supported by high merchant retention and steady enterprise brand additions. Operating expense discipline allows GAAP operating margins to expand toward eighteen percent over the forecast horizon, delivering a valuation target of $30.70 representing a return of -78.5% with a probability of 60.0%. This trajectory would be disconfirmed if annual revenue growth slows below twenty percent or operating expense leverage stalls.

Revenue growth compounding sustainably across core commerce flows
Operating expenses scaling down toward guided ranges to support margin expansion
Terminal multiple normalizing at twenty-five times earnings

Bull20%

Price target

$41.35

-71.0% from spot

The Bull scenario reflects accelerated enterprise retail migrations and expanding international payment take rates. Distilled artificial intelligence deployment and operational scaling push operating margins beyond twenty-one percent, yielding a valuation target of $41.35 representing -71.0% return at a probability of 20.0%. Disconfirmation would stem from elongation in enterprise enterprise software procurement cycles or payment take-rate compression.

Accelerated enterprise brand migrations expanding platform gross merchandise volume
Rapid international adoption of Shopify Payments and financial primitives
Operating expenses falling below thirty-two percent of revenue

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($30.70). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.

Ke ↓ / g →	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%	4.0%
11.4%	$35.9	$36.3	$36.8	$37.3	$38.0
12.4%	$32.8	$33.1	$33.5	$33.9	$34.3
13.4%	$30.2	$30.4	$30.7	$31.0	$31.3
14.4%	$27.9	$28.1	$28.3	$28.5	$28.8
15.4%	$26.0	$26.1	$26.3	$26.4	$26.6

Scorecard

Published factor rows and weighted composite

Calendar

Next earnings

Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.

Upcoming

DateLoading

Window—

EPS estimate—

Revenue estimate—

Sector percentile context

Refreshed 2026-10-28 19:55 UTC

Forward P/E61

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Trailing P/E96.2

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROE15.5

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROIC26.2

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Benchmarks · 1M

All SHOP indicators

Market & fundamental data

Available fields

266

Groups with data

Currency

USD

Showing 266 of 266 available metrics for this ticker.

Profile and market data

Ticker identity, listing, currency, market cap, and source dates.

Metric	Value
Amount currency	USD
CIK code	0001594805
Company name	Shopify Inc.
Country	Canada
Country code	US
CUSIP number	82509L107
Earnings date	2026-11-03
Earnings time	bmo
Employees	7,600
Employees change	-500
Employees growth	-6.17%
Enterprise value	$210.8B
Exchange	NASDAQ
Financial currency	USD
Financial report date	2026-06-30
First seen	2026-05-09
Fiscal year end	December
Founded	2004
In index	NASDAQ100
Industry	Software - Application
IPO date	2015-05-21
Is primary listing	Yes
Is SPAC	No
ISIN number	CA82509L1076
Last 10-K release date	2026-02-11
Last earnings date	2026-08-05
Last refreshed	2026-10-28
Last stock split date	2022-06-29
Last stock split type	Forward
Market cap	$216.1B
Market cap category	Mega-Cap
Next earnings date	2026-11-03
Options	Yes
Price	$167.98
Price currency	USD
Sector	Technology
SIC code	7372
Stock price date	2026-10-28
Symbol	SHOP
Website	https://www.shopify.com

Valuation

Multiples, yields, enterprise-value ratios, and valuation checks.

Metric	Value
Adjusted P/E ratio	104.99x
Average P/E ratio (3Y)	158.12x
Average P/E ratio (5Y)	165.97x
Earnings yield	0.88%
EV/Earnings	109.8x
EV/EBIT	89.48x
EV/EBITDA	88.39x
EV/FCF	90.01x
EV/Sales	15.95x
FCF / EV yield	1.11%
FCF yield	1.08%
Forward EV/Sales	12.47x
Forward P/E	79.78x
Forward P/S	12.78x
Graham number	18.11015
Graham upside	-89.26%
Industry forward P/E	19.55x
Industry P/E	72.09x
Lynch fair value	$7.41
Lynch upside	-95.61%
P/(FCF - SBC) ratio	116.04x
P/(OCF - SBC) ratio	114.51x
P/B ratio	16.85x
P/E ratio	113.38x
P/FCF ratio	92.26x
P/OCF ratio	91.29x
P/S ratio	16.35x
PEG ratio	2.59x
Price / tangible book value	17.84x
Price/EBITDA ratio	90.6x
Sector forward P/E	18.86x
Sector P/E	32.77x

Profitability

Margins, returns on capital, cash conversion, and quality metrics.

Metric	Value
EBIT margin	17.83%
EBITDA margin	18.05%
Effective tax rate	17.64%
FCF margin	17.73%
Gross margin	47.77%
Operating margin	17.83%
Pretax margin	17.64%
Profit margin	14.53%
Profit per employee	$253,684
Profitable quarters	1
Profitable years	3
Revenue per employee	$1.7M
ROA	10.19%
ROA (5Y)	3.12%
ROCE	18.19%
ROE	15.54%
ROE (5Y)	5.69%
ROIC	26.24%
ROIC (5Y)	9.06%
SBC / revenue	3.63%
Tax / revenue	3.11%

Growth

Revenue, earnings, cash-flow, and forward growth indicators.

Metric	Value
EPS growth	-17.05%
EPS growth (Q)	68.07%
EPS growth 5Y	-5.31%
EPS growth quarters	2
EPS growth years	0
FCF growth	29.44%
FCF growth (Q)	54.98%
FCF growth (QoQ)	37.39%
FCF growth 3Y	165.98%
FCF growth 5Y	35.92%
Gross profit growth	28.27%
Gross profit growth (Q)	31.18%
Gross profit growth 3Y	28.14%
Gross profit growth 5Y	24.85%
Net income growth	-17.78%
Net income growth (Q)	65.78%
Net income growth 5Y	-4.7%
Net income growth quarters	2
Net income growth years	0
OCF growth	29.68%
OCF growth (Q)	53.74%
OCF growth (QoQ)	36.8%
OCF growth 10Y	70.73%
OCF growth 3Y	135.5%
OCF growth 5Y	34.66%
Operating income growth	53.54%
Operating income growth (Q)	65.09%
Operating income growth 5Y	37.9%
Revenue growth	32.5%
Revenue growth (Q)	33.69%
Revenue growth (QoQ)	13.03%
Revenue growth 10Y	46.96%
Revenue growth 3Y	28.16%
Revenue growth 5Y	28.06%
Revenue growth quarters	45
Revenue growth years	13

Financial statements

Income-statement and cash-flow amounts, totals and per share.

Metric	Value
Capital expenditures	$-25M
Depreciation and amortization	$29M
EBIT	$2.4B
EBITDA	$2.4B
EPS	$1.48
FCF per share	$1.83
Financing cash flow	$-2.8B
Free cash flow	$2.4B
Free cash flow minus SBC	$1.9B
Gross profit	$6.3B
Income taxes	$413M
Investing cash flow	$562M
Net borrowing	$-1B
Net cash flow	$114M
Net income	$1.9B
Operating cash flow minus SBC	$1.9B
Operating income	$2.4B
Revenue	$13.3B
Stock-based compensation	$482M

Financial strength

Debt, cash, solvency, accounting-quality, and balance-sheet signals.

Metric	Value
Altman Z-Score	61.63
Book value per share	$9.84
Debt / EBITDA	0.07
Debt / equity	0.01
Debt / FCF	0.08
Goodwill	$491M
Long-term assets	$6.7B
Long-term liabilities	$326M
Net cash (debt)	$5.3B
Net cash / market cap	2.44%
Net cash growth	-3.96%
Net debt / EBITDA	-2.21
Net debt / equity	-0.42
Net debt / FCF	-2.25
Piotroski F-Score	6
Property, plant and equipment	$143M
Shareholders' equity	$12.7B
Tangible book value	$12.2B
Tangible book value per share	$9.44
Total assets	$14.5B
Total cash	$4.9B
Total debt	$178M
Total liabilities	$1.8B
WACC	18.67%

Liquidity

Current-asset coverage and working-capital efficiency metrics.

Metric	Value
Asset turnover	0.91
Current assets	$7.8B
Current liabilities	$1.5B
Current ratio	5.35
Net working capital	$1.4B
Quick ratio	3.72
Working capital	$6.4B
Working capital turnover	2.16

Dividends and buybacks

Dividend yield, payout, buybacks, and shareholder-yield indicators.

Metric	Value
Buyback yield / dilution	0.74%
Dividend yield	0%
Shareholder yield	0.74%

Performance and technicals

Returns, volatility, beta, momentum, RSI, and moving-average context.

Metric	Value
10Y price change	3,936.52%
10Y return CAGR	44.75%
10Y total return	3,936.52%
150-day SMA	$130.52
1D price change	1.31%
1M price change	17.34%
1M total return	17.34%
1W price change	-3.79%
1W total return	-3.79%
1Y price change	-4.66%
1Y return CAGR	-4.66%
1Y total return	-4.66%
20-day SMA	$167.98
200-day SMA	$129.88
3M price change	31.55%
3M total return	31.55%
3Y price change	259.72%
3Y return CAGR	53.21%
3Y total return	259.72%
50-day SMA	$152.14
50-day SMA vs 200-day SMA	50over200
52-week high	$182.19
52-week high date	2025-10-29
52-week low	$94.00
52-week low date	2026-05-14
5Y price change	22.63%
5Y return CAGR	4.16%
5Y total return	22.63%
6M price change	34.36%
6M total return	34.36%
All-time high	$182.19
All-time high date	2025-10-29
All-time low	$1.85
All-time low date	2016-01-15
Average true range (ATR)	$7.08
Average volume	7.7M
Beta (1Y)	2.35
Beta (2Y)	2.36
Beta (5Y)	2.62
Change from 52-week high	-7.8%
Change from 52-week low	78.7%
Change from all-time high	-8.39%
Change from all-time low	8,931.93%
Change from open	1.74%
Day's gap	-0.42%
Dollar volume	$780.6M
High price	$169.02
Low price	$164.72
Monthly RSI	66.55
Open price	$165.11
Position in 52-week range	75.81%
Premarket change	-0.28%
Premarket close	$165.81
Premarket price	$165.34
Premarket volume	42.7K
Previous close	$165.81
Price vs 150-day SMA	27.88%
Price vs 20-day SMA	-0.64%
Price vs 200-day SMA	28.51%
Price vs 50-day SMA	9.71%
Relative volume	0.61
RSI	55.29
Sharpe ratio	0.14
Sharpe ratio (3Y)	0.9
Sharpe ratio (5Y)	0.31
Sortino ratio	0.3
Sortino ratio (3Y)	1.51
Sortino ratio (5Y)	0.55
Volume	4.6M
Weekly RSI	62.25
YTD price change	3.69%
YTD total return	3.69%

Ownership and float

Institutional, insider, float, short-interest, and share-count fields.

Metric	Value
Float	1.2B
Float percentage	93.73%
Shares change (QoQ)	-0.42%
Shares change (YoY)	-0.74%
Shares held by insiders	6.15%
Shares held by institutions	70.77%
Shares outstanding	1.3B
Short % of float	1.67%
Short % of shares	1.57%
Short ratio	2 days

Other indicators

Additional ticker metrics that do not fit the primary research groupings.

Metric	Value
Page views	167

Deeper analysis on SHOP

14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need

Forecast

Base and Bull forecast paths with report-date return framing.

→

Valuation

Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.

→

Sensitivity

Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.

→

Risks

Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.

→

Earnings

Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.

→

Position sizing

Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.

→

Financials

Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.

→

Peers

Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.

→

Moat

Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.

→

Industry cycle

Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.

→

Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.

Frequently asked questions

About this SHOP report

What is the latest published SHOP stock rating?

Shopify Inc. is shown with Sell in the latest published report, analyzed 2026-09-25. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the dated rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.

Where can I read the full SHOP analysis?

The full latest published report, analyzed 2026-09-25, lives at /stocks/SHOP/analysis. The bare ticker page summarizes that read and links to each analysis tab; earlier editions remain under /analysis/archive.

What fair value is used for SHOP?

The latest published report analyzed 2026-09-25 gives SHOP a fair value of USD 31 and a potential value of USD 41. These are dated research outputs, not live market prices; review the valuation assumptions, sensitivity analysis, and material risks before making a decision.

How often is the SHOP page updated?

The hub selects the latest published stock report regardless of age and displays its analysis date (2026-09-25). Separately sourced market data is labeled with its own recorded timestamp and is never inferred from the report.

SellSHOP · Fair value $30.7-78.5%

Read full analysis →

Shopify Inc. (SHOP)

Our latest published analysis: SHOP rated Sell

Price

Financial snapshot

Fair-value bridge

Latest news · SHOP

Valuation

Profitability

Balance sheet

Trading

Base and Bull scenarios

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

Scorecard

Next earnings

Sector percentile context

All SHOP indicators

Profile and market data

Valuation

Profitability

Growth

Financial statements

Financial strength

Liquidity

Dividends and buybacks

Performance and technicals

Ownership and float

Other indicators

Deeper analysis on SHOP

Frequently asked questions

レーティング履歴

Category	Score	Reading
Valuation	1.5
Management	9.5
Balance Sheet	8.5
Profitability	6.5
Revenue Growth	9.0
Risk Assessment	7.0
Competitive Moat	9.0
Earnings Quality	9.0
Capital Efficiency	4.5