Is Snowflake Inc. overvalued?

In our latest published analysis dated 2026-05-10, SNOW trades close to fair value. The price recorded at analysis is USD 152 versus our fair value of USD 155; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of USD 217. That implies roughly 1.4% upside to fair value at that date.

What is SNOW's fair value?

Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-05-10, gives SNOW a fair value of USD 155 and a potential value of USD 217. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Snowflake Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.

Should I buy SNOW now?

Our latest published rating for SNOW, analyzed 2026-05-10, is Hold. Snowflake Inc. trades close to fair value at the analysis-date price of USD 152 versus fair value of USD 155; potential value is USD 217. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.

What are the biggest risks for SNOW?

The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-05-10 documents Snowflake Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.

What is SNOW's rating?

Our latest published rating for SNOW, analyzed 2026-05-10, is Hold, with a published moat assessment of 6.5/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of USD 155, the potential value of USD 217, and the price recorded at analysis (USD 152).

What archetype is SNOW?

In the latest published report analyzed 2026-05-10, Snowflake Inc. is classified as a pre-profit stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for SNOW.

SNOW stock analysis | StockMarketAgent.AI

StockMarketAgent research分析日 2026-05-10

Snowflake Inc.

SNOW

ホールド

適正水準 · 適正価値との差は1.4%

Report-date price

$152.45

株価の日付は未記録です

公正価値

$154.60

潜在価値

$216.73

評価レンジの上限

経済的モート

Narrow6.5 / 10

英語版にフォールバックJA

翻訳中のため英語版を表示しています

このレポートはまだ翻訳されていません。翻訳キューが追いついたら数分後に更新してください。

§1 エグゼクティブサマリーEN

30秒でわかる要点Hold

株価と価値の比較

Price: $152.45
Fair value: $154.60
Potential value: $216.73
As of: 株価の日付は未記録です

投資仮説が成立する理由

internal valuation cross-checks: private calibration expectations ($232.74) ignore real economic cost of dilution.

見方を変える要因

Fundamental: Transformational technology weighed down by poor capital structure (SBC).

Snowflake is a high-growth, foundational data platform benefiting from secular tailwinds in cloud data migration and AI data readiness. Despite stellar revenue growth and strong FCF generation, profound GAAP unprofitability driven by outsized SBC requires careful dilution modeling.

§3 競争優位性EN

Narrow

High data gravity from multi-cloud data warehousing

Switching costs associated with foundational data architecture

Network effects from data sharing ecosystem

経済的利益

Economic profit is supported when reported returns exceed the company cost-of-capital hurdle.

6.5/ 10

Narrow

Sources of advantage

High data gravity from multi-cloud data warehousingHigh data gravity from multi-cloud data warehousingModerate
Switching costs associated with foundational data architectureSwitching costs associated with foundational data architectureModerate
Network effects from data sharing ecosystemNetwork effects from data sharing ecosystemModerate

モートに対する既知の脅威
脅威	深刻度	時間軸	緩和策
Native offerings from AWS, Azure, and GCP	medium	Monitor	Monitor the threat against the report checkpoints.
Open-source data lakehouse architectures (e.g., Databricks)	medium	Monitor

§5 感応度

割引率

ターミナル成長率

	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%	4.0%
8.9%	$183.87	$198.31	$215.20	$235.24	$259.39
9.9%	$160.51	$171.40	$183.87	$198.31	$215.20
10.9%	$142.41	$150.92	$160.51	$171.40	$183.87
11.9%	$127.99	$134.81	$142.41	$150.92	$160.51
12.9%	$116.21	$121.81	$127.99	$134.81	$142.41

行：割引率（利益モデルはKe、キャッシュフローはWACC）。列：ターミナル成長率。

期間の変化（年）

Unavailable

FCFクリフ

FCF cliff sensitivity is not model-supported in this run; use the discount-rate and terminal-growth grid as the primary valuation pressure test.

§8 財務履歴

損益計算書 — 直近6期
Period	2023-01-31	2024-01-31	2025-01-31	2026-01-31	Trend
Revenue	$2.07B	$2.81B	$3.63B	$4.68B	+31.4%
Gross profit	$1.35B	$1.91B	$2.41B	$3.15B	+32.6%
Operating income	$-816.0M	$-849.2M	$-1.28B	$-1.30B	—
Net income	$-796.7M	$-836.1M	$-1.29B	$-1.33B	—
EPS (diluted)	$-2.50	$-2.55	$-3.86	$-3.95	—
EBITDA	$-752.5M	$-729.3M	$-1.10B	$-1.08B	—
R&D	$788.1M	$1.29B	$1.78B	$1.97B	+35.7%
SG&A	$1.40B	$1.71B	$2.08B	$2.61B	+23.0%

キャッシュフロー

資本配分

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

最新の売上高46.8億売上高CAGR +31.4%

営業利益率-30.6%4会計期間

最新のフリーキャッシュフロー11.2億FY2026

ネットキャッシュ8704.9万FY2026

損益計算書の内訳事業規模が報告利益にどう結び付いているか。

財務履歴データ
売上高	4,683,946,000
売上原価	1,537,805,000
売上総利益	3,146,141,000
営業費用	4,581,306,000
営業利益	-1,435,165,000
営業外項目および税金	103,549,000
純利益	-1,331,616,000

貸借対照表の概要選択した期間における報告資産の保有構成と資金調達方法。

StockMarketAgent.AI

貸借対照表の内訳データ
総資産	9,132,495,000
現金	2,828,163,000
流動資産	5,742,612,000
負債合計	7,208,393,000
流動負債	4,421,691,000
株主資本	1,924,102,000

売上高と利益事業規模が報告利益にどう結び付いているか。

現金と負債総借入額に対する利用可能な流動性。

キャッシュ創出力営業キャッシュフローとフリーキャッシュフローの比較。

収益性粗利益率、営業利益率、純利益率の推移。

2026-05-10の分析で使用した時点財務データ。

財務履歴データ
期間	売上高	EBITDA	純利益	営業キャッシュフロー	フリーキャッシュフロー	設備投資	減価償却費	株式報酬	自社株買い	支払配当金	純有利子負債調達	投資キャッシュフロー	財務キャッシュフロー	期首現金	期末現金	現金および投資	総負債	営業利益率	ROIC	WACC	ROIC−WACCスプレッド
2023-01-31	20.7億	-7.5億	-8億	5.5億	5億	4984万	6353.5万	8.6億	0	—	0	—	—	—	—	9.4億	2.5億	-40.8%	—	10.5%	—
2024-01-31	28.1億	-7.3億	-8.4億	8.5億	7.5億	9796.3万	1.2億	11.7億	5.9億	—	0	—	—	—	—	17.6億	2.9億	-39.0%	—	11.3%	—
2025-01-31	36.3億	-11億	-12.9億	9.6億	8.8億	7571.2万	1.8億	14.8億	19.3億	—	23億	—	—	—	—	26.3億	26.9億	-40.2%	—	11.3%	—
2026-01-31	46.8億	-10.8億	-13.3億	12.2億	11.2億	1億	2.2億	16億	8.7億	—	0	—	—	—	—	28.3億	27.4億	-30.6%	—	10.8%	—

§9 同業他社とのバリュエーション比較

Snowflake Inc.SNOW

株価 / 適正価値

適正価値$154.6Report-date price$152.45

評価日2026年5月10日

経済的モートNarrow

投資スコアカード51 / 100

Uber Technologies Inc.UBER

株価 / 適正価値

適正価値$78.99Report-date price$69.22

評価日2026年9月25日

経済的モートNarrow

投資スコアカード68 / 100

Salesforce, Inc.CRM

株価 / 適正価値

適正価値$220.82Report-date price$237.5

評価日2026年9月21日

経済的モートWide

投資スコアカード63 / 100

Snowflake Inc.SNOW

株価 / 適正価値

適正価値$154.6Report-date price$152.45

評価日2026年5月10日

経済的モートNarrow

投資スコアカード51 / 100

競合倍率と収益性
ティッカー	名前	時価総額	P/E	P/S	EV/EBITDA	ROE

SNOW trades at 62.7x forward earnings against a peer median of 15.0x; EV/EBITDA of -39.9x against a peer median of 18.6x; 6 peers.

§11 ポジション管理EN

サイジング

Limit to maximum 2% of portfolio given binary valuation risks and lack of current GAAP profitability.

リスク

Trim exposure if price breaches $180 or if NRR deteriorates below 110%.

エントリートランシェ
レベル	アクション	理由
Current / pullbacks	Initiate only below $120 to build a margin of safety against SBC dilution risks.	Initiate only below $120 to build a margin of safety against SBC dilution risks.

エグジットトランシェ
レベル	アクション
Thesis break	Trim exposure if price breaches $180 or if NRR deteriorates below 110%.

SNOW	Snowflake Inc.	$52.7B	62.7x	11.3x	-39.9x	—	—
UBER	Uber Technologies Inc.		17.4x	2.9x	22.9x	35.3%	14.6%
CRM	Salesforce Inc.		12.2x	3.6x	14.0x	12.4%	19.2%
SHOP	Shopify Inc.		47.5x	11.6x	64.1x	11.3%	15.7%
INTU	Intuit Inc.		15.0x	5.5x	18.6x	23.5%	18.4%
ADBE	Adobe Inc.		9.6x	4.2x	10.7x	58.8%	38.8%

Is Snowflake Inc. overvalued?

What is SNOW's fair value?

Should I buy SNOW now?

What are the biggest risks for SNOW?

What is SNOW's rating?

What archetype is SNOW?

Snowflake Inc.

Names readers of SNOW also follow

企業概要

Annual Revenue Growth Deceleration

Diluted Earnings Per Share

Narrow

Sources of advantage

Lenses that set Fair value

PEG-adjusted Peer

Annual Revenue Growth Deceleration

Diluted Earnings Per Share

Gross Profit Margin Contraction

Operating Margin Target Convergence

Net Profit Margin Erosion

EV / Revenue

Checks and reference points

Reverse DCF

Gross Profit Margin Contraction

Operating Margin Target Convergence

Net Profit Margin Erosion