任意の製品分析
許可いただいた場合、プライバシーに配慮した限定的な分析を使用し、どのリサーチ経路が有効かを把握します。広告トラッカーやセッション録画は使用しません。この選択は設定で変更できます。詳しくは プライバシーポリシー.
Accelerated global Mako robotic penetration across inpatient hospitals and outpatient Ambulatory Surgery Centers, driving proprietary knee and hip implant pull-through and expanding international revenue beyond the current 24.3% non-U.S.
A macroeconomic contraction or hospital budgetary austerity leading to deferred capital equipment commitments and delayed Mako placements.
Stryker Corporation (NYSE: SYK) carries a Hold rating with a fair value of $313.18, reflecting balanced risk-reward as strong procedural demand and robotic surgical leadership are counterbalanced by full valuation at $297.60 and transient operational overhead.4
Stryker Corporation has demonstrated operational resilience following first-quarter cyber and manufacturing disruptions, delivering healthy procedural demand across core reconstructive and endoscopy lines. Management has narrowed its full-year guidance corridor, projecting organic net sales growth between 8.3% and 9.3% and adjusted diluted earnings per share of $14.95 to $15.10. Expanding operating cash generation and disciplined capital allocation continue to reinforce the business model's durability.
While Stryker's competitive position in robotic surgery and hospital infrastructure remains entrenched, current market pricing reflects much of this operating recovery. Trading at $297.60, shares offer an implied return of +5.24% relative to the committee's $313.18 fair value midpoint. With valuation multiples elevated relative to medical device peers (such as BSX at 13.18x forward P/E and GEHC at 12.98x) and macroeconomic interest rates sustained at 5.15%, the committee maintains a Hold rating pending a wider margin of safety.234
Looking forward, execution will center on clearing acute Peripheral Vascular backorders by the end of Q3, converting elevated Mako robotic and smart bed backlogs into revenue, and managing a seamless executive transition to incoming CEO Spencer Stiles on January 1, 2027. Investors should maintain existing holdings while waiting for valuation pullbacks to add exposure.5
Stryker's Mako system continues to set placement records across hospitals and ASCs, driving recurring, high-margin sales of proprietary knee and hip implants that solidify surgeon loyalty.5
As transient cyber remediation expenses and manufacturing absorption drag subside, operating leverage and efficiency initiatives are poised to drive multi-year adjusted operating margin expansion across both MedSurg and Orthopaedics.5
Stryker converted $5,044M in operating cash flow into $4,283M in free cash flow in FY2025, enabling programmatic bolt-on M&A, consistent dividend growth, and opportunistic share buybacks.567
Hold. Stryker is a best-in-class medtech compounder with widening competitive moats in robotic surgery, but current market pricing leaves valuation balanced against fundamental intrinsic value.
Stryker Corporation is a global medical technology company delivering innovative solutions across MedSurg and Neurotechnology as well as Orthopaedics. In FY2025, Stryker generated $25,116M in net sales, comprising $15,647M from MedSurg and Neurotechnology and $9,469M from Orthopaedics. Geographically, the United States accounted for $19,006M (75.7%) of net sales while international markets generated $6,110M (24.3%).
The company's diverse commercial portfolio includes joint replacement implants, surgical power tools, advanced endoscopy systems, neurosurgical devices, patient handling equipment, and connected clinical software, serving healthcare providers worldwide. Stryker announced that executive Spencer Stiles will succeed Kevin Lobo as Chief Executive Officer, with Lobo transitioning to Executive Chair of the Board.
Under a combined macroeconomic slowdown and hospital capex freeze, capital equipment commitments are deferred and hospital procedural volumes soften. In this stress scenario, organic net sales growth slows below 4.0%, manufacturing fixed costs and elevated IT security overhead depress operating margins below 16.5%, and valuation multiples compress toward the peer medtech range of 13.0x-14.0x forward earnings, severely impairing intrinsic economic value.
Hospital budgetary tightening leads to deferred capital equipment commitments, prolonged supply chain backorders constrain vascular sales, and persistent IT remediation overhead limits operating leverage, restricting EPS compounding to low-single digits.
Hospital budgetary austerity or recessionary capex cuts delay Mako robot purchases and bed replacements, which currently drive elevated backlog. If organic growth slows below 4.0% (well below guided 8.3%-9.3%), fixed manufacturing costs erode operating leverage.5
投資判断を弱める5つの変化です。
Deceleration below 4.0% indicates hospital capital budget freezes and surgical procedure deferrals, invalidating top-line compounding.
現在:9.0% YoY in Q2 2026 (full-year guided 8.3%-9.3%)
警戒条件< 4.0% YoY
Margin contraction below 16.5% signals inability to absorb remediation overhead and persistent fixed-cost deleverage.
Stryker Corporation possesses a Narrow economic moat founded on high customer switching costs, extensive operating room distribution scale, and an integrated clinical technology portfolio. The company's crown jewel is its Mako robotic-assisted orthopedic surgery system, which has established an industry-leading installed base that drives recurring sales of proprietary implants across total knee, partial knee, and total hip procedures. Hospital systems and surgeons invest heavily in robotic capital, software configuration, and surgical technique training, creating friction that disincentivizes switching to competing robotic platforms.
Complementing its orthopedic leadership, Stryker's MedSurg and Neurotechnology businesses command dominant market shares in surgical instruments, endoscopy, emergency care, and hospital infrastructure. By bundling capital equipment such as ProCuity smart beds with clinical workflow software from Vocera and Care.ai, Stryker embeds itself deeply into hospital enterprise procurement workflows, securing recurring consumable demand and reinforcing pricing stability even amidst broader healthcare budgeting pressures.
Stryker generates returns well in excess of its cost of capital. In FY2025, operating profit of $4,889M on $25,116M revenue and an invested capital base of $38,279M supported a return on invested capital of 11.45%. This exceeds the company's weighted average cost of capital of 8.21% and moderate cost of equity of 8.64%, confirming persistent economic profit creation.267
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($313.18). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $3.6B after modeled reinvestment of $895.4M, with terminal value at 79.7% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
Accelerated hospital capital equipment spending, record Mako robotic placements in hospital and ASC settings, and rapid clearance of Peripheral Vascular backorders drive double-digit earnings compounding and accelerated operating margin expansion ahead of house expectations.5
Delivering results above the high end of organic sales guidance alongside robust margin recovery would prove that Mako adoption and operating leverage are running ahead of house expectations, justifying a positive rating revision.
Financial performance within guided corridors affirms the baseline recovery thesis, but current market valuation fairly balances operational compounding against macroeconomic risks.
Missing guided ranges would indicate that hospital capex deferrals are materializing, competitive pressures are restricting placements, or operational and cyber remediation costs are lingering, warranting a rating downgrade.
Stryker exhibits high earnings quality supported by disciplined cash conversion, transparent non-GAAP reporting reconciliations, and healthy working capital management. Operating cash flow tracks net income closely, underscoring strong cash conversion across hospital capital equipment and orthopaedic implant deliveries. The spread between GAAP and adjusted diluted earnings per share primarily reflects routine amortization of purchased intangible assets alongside transient structural optimization and cyber recovery charges, rather than aggressive operational accounting adjustments.
Consensus analyst revisions following the Q2 2026 earnings release have remained flat across both revenue and EPS curves. Consensus FY2026 diluted EPS settled at $14.95 (within management's narrowed $14.95-$15.10 guidance range) and FY2027 diluted EPS held steady at $16.66. Consensus revenue estimates for FY2026 of $27.17B and FY2027 of $29.49B align with house baseline expectations.15
Validates whether core procedure volumes and hospital capital spending support management's target to grow at the upper tier of medical technology.
Stryker demonstrates high cash flow quality characterized by disciplined capital expenditure and strong conversion. In FY2025, operating cash flow reached $5,044M, which after capital expenditures of $761M yielded free cash flow of $4,283M (an 84.9% free cash flow conversion of operating cash flow). In the first half of 2026, operating cash flow increased 35.3% YoY to $1,842M, supported by working capital improvements following initial cyber incident disruptions. Capex remained modest at $368M in 6M 2026, confirming the asset-light nature of Stryker's ongoing operations.67
Stryker maintains a disciplined, shareholder-friendly strategy focused on programmatic tuck-in acquisitions, dividend growth, and selective share repurchases. Under CEO Lobo, the company completed over 60 acquisitions, including transformative transactions such as Mako, Wright Medical, Vocera, and Inari. In the first six months of 2026, Stryker invested $459M in acquisitions, paid $674M in dividends, and executed $750M in payments. Total debt of $15,446M against a market capitalization of $114,151M reflects a modest 11.92% debt weight, preserving ample borrowing headroom, while approximately $1 billion in authorized repurchase capacity remains available for opportunistic share buybacks.
Stryker's ROIC of 11.45% delivers a positive economic spread of +324 bps above its 8.21% WACC. Operating margin progression from 19.47% in FY2025 toward 21.2% by FY2030 will expand ROIC further as post-incident manufacturing absorption normalizes.
ROIC of 11.45% exceeds computed WACC of 8.21% by 3.24 percentage points.
FY2025 operating cash flow of $5,044M and capex of $761M produced $4,283M in free cash flow, representing a 3.03% ratio compared to the 4.5% industry benchmark.
| 売上高 | $6,589,000,000 |
|---|---|
| 売上原価 | $2,091,000,000 |
| 売上総利益 | $4,498,000,000 |
| 営業費用 | $2,839,000,000 |
| 営業利益 | $1,659,000,000 |
| 営業外項目および税金 | -$383,000,000 |
| 純利益 | $1,276,000,000 |
| 総資産 | $47,844,000,000 |
|---|---|
| 現金 | $4,011,000,000 |
| 流動資産 | $14,755,000,000 |
| 負債合計 | $25,424,000,000 |
| 流動負債 | $7,794,000,000 |
| 株主資本 | $22,420,000,000 |
| 純利益 | $3,246,000,000 |
|---|---|
| 営業キャッシュ流入 | $5,059,000,000 |
| 減価償却費 | $1,570,000,000 |
| 株式報酬 | $243,000,000 |
| 営業キャッシュフロー | $5,044,000,000 |
| 営業キャッシュ流出 | $15,000,000 |
| 利用可能現金 | $8,877,000,000 |
| 期首現金 | $3,652,000,000 |
| 財務キャッシュ流入 | $113,000,000 |
| 為替レートの影響 | $68,000,000 |
| 投資キャッシュ流出 | $4,866,000,000 |
| 設備投資 | $761,000,000 |
| その他の投資活動 | $4,105,000,000 |
| 期末現金 | $4,011,000,000 |
| 投資キャッシュフロー | -$4,866,000,000 |
| 財務キャッシュフロー | $113,000,000 |
出典: SEC EDGAR · 提出日 2026-02-11 · SEC EDGAR
| 事業セグメント別売上高 | 売上高 | 構成比 | 前年比 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Med Surg And Neurotechnology | $156.5億 | 62.3% | 15.7% |
| Orthopaedics | $94.7億 | 37.7% | 4.3% |
2026-10-22の分析で使用した時点財務データ。
| 期間 | 売上高 | EBITDA | 純利益 | 営業キャッシュフロー | フリーキャッシュフロー | 設備投資 | 減価償却費 | 株式報酬 | 自社株買い | 支払配当金 | 純有利子負債調達 | 投資キャッシュフロー | 財務キャッシュフロー | 期首現金 | 期末現金 | 現金および投資 | 総負債 | 営業利益率 | ROIC | WACC | ROIC−WACCスプレッド |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-12-31 | $113.3億 | $27億 | $16.5億 | $19.2億 | $14.3億 | $4.9億 | $7.5億 | $9700万 | $1300万 | $5.7億 | — | -$41.9億 | $22.6億 | — | $33.2億 | $33.8億 | $69.1億 | 19.2% | — | 5.5% | — |
| 2017-12-31 | $124.4億 | $29.5億 | $10.2億 | $15.6億 | $9.6億 | $6億 | $8.6億 | $1.1億 | $2.3億 | $6.4億 | — | -$16.1億 | -$7.9億 | $33.2億 | $25.4億 | $27.9億 | $72.2億 | 18.5% | — | 5.1% | — |
| 2018-12-31 | $136億 | $33.4億 | $35.5億 | $26.1億 | $20.4億 | $5.7億 | $9.7億 | $1.2億 | $3億 | $7億 | — | -$28.6億 | $13.3億 | $25.4億 | $36.2億 | $37億 | $98.6億 | 18.7% | — | 5.5% | — |
| 2019-12-31 | $148.8億 | $36.3億 | $20.8億 | $21.9億 | $15.4億 | $6.5億 | $10.4億 | $1.3億 | $3.1億 | $7.8億 | — | -$14.6億 | $300万 | $36.2億 | $43.4億 | $44.3億 | $110.9億 | 18.2% | — | 4.9% | — |
| 2020-12-31 | $143.5億 | $30.8億 | $16億 | $32.8億 | $27.9億 | $4.9億 | $10.8億 | $1.4億 | $0 | $8.6億 | — | -$47億 | -$1100万 | $43.4億 | $29.4億 | $30.2億 | $139.9億 | 15.5% | — | 4.6% | — |
| 2021-12-31 | $171.1億 | $36.1億 | $19.9億 | $32.6億 | $27.4億 | $5.3億 | $12.7億 | $1.7億 | $0 | $9.5億 | — | -$8.6億 | -$23.7億 | $29.4億 | $29.4億 | $30.2億 | $124.8億 | 15.1% | — | 5.4% | — |
| 2022-12-31 | $184.5億 | $40.2億 | $23.6億 | $26.2億 | $20.4億 | $5.9億 | $12.8億 | $1.7億 | — | $10.5億 | $4.7億 | -$29.2億 | -$7.5億 | $29.4億 | $18.4億 | $19.3億 | $135.3億 | 15.4% | — | 7.6% | — |
| 2023-12-31 | $205億 | $50.6億 | $31.7億 | $37.1億 | $31.4億 | $5.8億 | $13.4億 | $2.1億 | — | $11.4億 | -$2.8億 | -$9.6億 | -$15.9億 | $18.4億 | $29.7億 | $30.5億 | $134.9億 | 19.0% | — | 7.7% | — |
| 2024-12-31 | $226億 | $60.1億 | $29.9億 | $42.4億 | $34.9億 | $7.6億 | $14.3億 | $2.3億 | — | $12.2億 | $9.4億 | -$30億 | -$5.3億 | $29.7億 | $36.5億 | $44億 | $141.2億 | 16.3% | — | 8.5% | — |
| 2025-12-31 | $251.2億 | $63.1億 | $32.5億 | $50.4億 | $42.8億 | $7.6億 | $15.7億 | $2.4億 | — | $12.8億 | $15.8億 | -$48.7億 | $1.1億 | $36.5億 | $40.1億 | $41億 | $163.6億 | 19.5% | — | 7.5% | — |
Stryker Corporation (SYK) trades at 16.5x forward earnings against a peer median of 15.6x. Its EV/EBITDA of 17.1x compares with a peer median of 13.8x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Boston Scientific Corporation, GE HealthCare Technologies Inc., Edwards Lifesciences Corporation and STERIS plc, as of 2026-10-21 to 2026-10-22.
Industry capital expenditures track at 4.5% of revenue with a capex-to-depreciation ratio of 0.8x, indicating disciplined replacement capex rather than aggressive capacity overexpansion. Stryker's own FY2025 capex of $761M on $25,116M revenue (3.03%) further demonstrates restrained capital intensity. Because adapter data does not supply comprehensive equipment lead times or utilization metrics, the industry cycle view is demand-led and evidence-limited.7
Robust hospital capex budgets, accelerating migration of joint reconstructions to ASCs, record robotic conversions, and steady procedure volume expansion drive double-digit EPS growth and multiple expansion across large-cap medtech.
Hospital financial austerity and capex freezes delay robotic placements and bed replacements, while persistent supply chain bottlenecks and elevated interest rates depress industry valuation multiples toward 13x-14x forward earnings.
Stryker commands leading global positions in Orthopaedics ($9,469M FY2025 revenue) and MedSurg and Neurotechnology ($15,647M FY2025 revenue). Its dominant Mako robotic surgery footprint, comprehensive operating room equipment catalog, and connected software platforms position the company to outpace broader industry procedural growth and gain market share from fragmented competitors.8
A Hold rating reflects balanced risk-reward with shares trading at $297.60 (as of 2026-10-21) relative to Fair value of $313.18. While Stryker is a high-conviction compounder, full valuation caps incremental position sizing.
Control portfolio exposure through strict position sizing caps, rebalance opportunistically as valuation reaches extreme bands, and maintain diversification across less capital-sensitive healthcare segments.
Stryker offers exceptional structural advantages, an expanding robotic surgery ecosystem, and robust free cash flow conversion, but shares at $297.60 trade near fair value ($313.18), warranting a patient stance for better entry points.4
With shares trading at $297.60 (as of 2026-10-21) offering an upside of 5.2% to Fair value of $313.18, valuation does not offer an adequate margin of safety relative to prevailing risk-free interest rates.2
Post-earnings consensus estimate revisions are flat and guidance ranges are tightly bound, suggesting limited near-term multiple re-rating catalysts until supply chain normalization and Mako order conversion deliver upside surprises.5
Stryker Corporation is an elite medical technology compounder with a Narrow economic moat established across robotic orthopedic surgery and hospital infrastructure. However, with shares trading at $297.60 relative to our fair value midpoint of $313.18 (+5.24% implied return), market pricing adequately reflects near-term operational recovery, justifying a Hold rating.4
Investors should retain existing allocations, monitor execution on elevated capital equipment order backlogs and Q3 Peripheral Vascular supply resolution, and await wider valuation discounts before committing fresh capital.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Continued costs from lost manufacturing absorption, elevated IT cybersecurity spending, and unabsorbed overhead as described by management depress operating margins below 16.5%, reverting toward 2024 levels (16.33%) and industry benchmark (15.5%).5
Persistent higher interest rates (risk-free rate 5.15%) compress valuation multiples toward peer BSX forward P/E of 13.18x and GEHC forward P/E of 12.98x, derating Stryker from its terminal 18.0x assumption to 14.0x.23
現在:19.47% in FY2025; 20.6% reported / 24.4% adjusted in 6M 2026
警戒条件< 16.5%
Multiple compression below 14.0x indicates market derating toward peer medtech medians (BSX 13.18x, GEHC 12.98x) under persistent high interest rates.
現在:16.47x NTM P/E as of 2026-10-22
警戒条件< 14.0x
Prolonged negative growth past Q4 2026 indicates permanent customer defection and market share loss to competitors rather than transient supply friction.
現在:-6.7% YoY in Q2 2026
警戒条件Negative YoY organic growth persisting past Q4 2026
Order cancellations or lengthening conversion cycles signal hospital capital spending retrenchment, impairing high-margin capital equipment revenue.
現在:Elevated backlog with record Mako sales in Q2 2026
警戒条件Net backlog contraction or order cancellations exceeding 5% YoY
| medium |
| 6-12 months |
| Adding manufacturing shifts, stabilizing sales force integration, and resolving component bottlenecks to restore delivery timelines by end of Q3.5 |
Under the moderate discount rate, $61.05 comes from forecast-period earnings and $278 from the long-term value, totaling $339.
Project EPS through the explicit advantage period, fade growth as competition catches up, and discount the full stream at cost of equity.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward EPS path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and terminal value at WACC, then adjust for signed net debt per current share.
Discounted forecast-period cash flows ($43.86) plus discounted terminal value ($172) minus signed per current share ($31.96) equals the $184 lens value shown above. Negative net debt is , so subtracting it raises value.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
Multiply the peer median PEG by this stock's forecast growth to derive an implied forward P/E, then apply it to forward EPS.
Stryker executes within its guided organic sales growth corridors, transitioning to steady high-single-digit revenue expansion through FY2030 supported by resilient reconstructive procedure volumes and steady operating margin progression.5
Confirms that manufacturing fixed-cost absorption and efficiency programs are offsetting residual cyber remediation expenses.5
Tests the speed of supply chain resolution and verifies customer retention following acute manufacturing disruptions.5
Directly drives proprietary implant pull-through in knees and hips across outpatient surgical facilities.5
Maintains continuity of Stryker's acquisition playbook, organizational culture, and operating model.
| $31.70B |
| $33.86B |
| $35.89B |
| Revenue growth | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.0% |
| Operating margin | 19.5% | 19.9% | 20.4% | 20.8% | 21.2% |
| Operating income | $5.30B | $5.87B | $6.47B | $7.04B | $7.61B |
| Tax rate | 15.5% | 15.5% | 15.5% | 15.5% | 15.5% |
| NOPAT | $4.48B | $4.96B | $5.46B | $5.95B | $6.43B |
| Reinvestment | $895.40M | $991.81M | $1.09B | $1.19B | $1.29B |
| Reinvestment rate (of NOPAT) | 20.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| Free cash flow to firm | $3.58B | $3.97B | $4.37B | $4.76B | $5.14B |
| Med Surg and Neurotechnology revenue | $16.93B | $18.37B | $19.75B | $21.09B | $22.36B |
| Orthopaedics revenue | $10.24B | $11.12B | $11.95B | $12.76B | $13.53B |
| Terminal growth | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
Operating margins rebounded from 16.33% in FY2024 to 19.47% in FY2025, and adjusted operating margin expanded 170 bps YoY to 27.4% in Q2 2026.
Fixed-cost recovery from manufacturing shutdowns and tapering cyber IT overhead create a reliable runway to reach 21.2% operating margins by FY2030.
In Q2 2026, MedSurg and Neurotechnology delivered 9.7% reported growth ($3,625M) while Orthopaedics delivered 9.1% reported growth ($2,964M).
Broad procedural and equipment diversification insulates enterprise revenue from isolated segment disruptions, such as the temporary -6.7% decline in U.S. Peripheral Vascular sales.
| マージン |
|---|
| SYK | Stryker Corporation | $114.2B | 16.5x | 4.4x | 17.1x | 16.5% | — |
| BSX | Boston Scientific Corporation | $64.5B | 13.2x | 3.1x | 13.5x | 15.3% | 22.9% |
| GEHC | GE HealthCare Technologies Inc. | $31.9B | 13.0x | 1.5x | 11.3x | 19.4% | 15.0% |
| EW | Edwards Lifesciences Corporation | $50.9B | 26.1x | 7.8x | 23.8x | 9.2% | 29.8% |
| STE | STERIS plc | $21.6B | 18.0x | 3.6x | 14.1x | 11.4% | 19.2% |
| positive |
| Hospitals increasingly adopt connected bed systems (ProCuity) and clinical communication platforms (Vocera, Care.ai) to enhance nurse efficiency, patient safety, and workflow automation. |
| Regulatory Compliance and Component Supply Chain Constraints | neutral | Complex regulatory requirements including European Medical Device Regulation (EU MDR) and specialized medical supply chain vulnerabilities introduce localized backorders and compliance friction. |
| Re-assess operating leverage trajectory and review position for trimming. |
| Peripheral Vascular U.S. Organic Growth | Negative YoY organic growth persisting into Q4 2026 | Reduce vascular growth assumptions and evaluate competitive market share losses.5 |
