TransDigm Group Incorporated (TDG)

NYSE: TDG · USD

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StockMarketAgent Research · Analyzed 2026-10-22

Our latest published analysis: TDG rated Hold

TransDigm Group Incorporated's published Hold conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.

Fair value

$1,148 / share

Potential value

$1,369 / share

Upside to FV

+3.2%

Moat

9/10

Wide

Read full analysis →View archive · 24mo

9-phase methodology · same model in each published edition

Market cap	$62.3B
P/E (forward)	23.1x

Market data

Price

Recent price action with selectable time range.

Financial snapshot

P/E (forward): 23.1x
Market cap: $62.3B

Item	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5	Trend
Period	2022-09-30	2023-09-30	2024-09-30	2025-09-30	2026-09-30	Trend
Revenue	$5.43B	$6.59B	$7.94B	$8.83B	—	+17.6%
Gross profit	$3.10B	$3.84B	$4.67B	$5.31B	—	+19.7%
Operating income	$2.22B	$2.92B	$3.53B	$4.17B	—	+23.4%
Net income	$866.0M	$1.30B	$1.71B	$2.07B	—	+33.8%
EPS (diluted)	$13.40	$22.03	$25.62	$32.08	$28.05	+20.3%
EBITDA	$2.46B	$3.15B	$3.81B	$4.56B	—	+22.9%
R&D	$95.0M	$105.0M	$107.0M	$118.0M	—	+7.5%
SG&A	$748.0M	$780.0M	$980.0M	$945.0M	—	+8.1%

Ticker	Name	Market cap	P/E	P/S	ROIC	5Y rev CAGR	1Y total return	Rating
AAPL	Apple Inc.	—	—	—	—	—	—	売り
ABNB	Airbnb, Inc.	—	—	—	—	—	—	売り
ADBE	Adobe Inc.	—	—	—	—	—	—	強い買い
AAL	American Airlines Group Inc.	—	—	—	—	—	—	ホールド
ADP	Automatic Data Processing, Inc.	—	—	—	—	—	—	ホールド
ALLE	Allegion plc	—	—	—	—	—	—	ホールド

Base and Bull scenarios

Bull20%

Price target

$1,368.99

+23.0% from spot

In the Bull case, global commercial flight hours expand rapidly, OEM build rates at Boeing and Airbus accelerate, and recent acquisitions achieve faster-than-modeled synergy realization with sustained pricing power.

Multi-year revenue compound annual growth accelerating above historical trend driven by commercial transport fleet utilization
Operating margins expanding above baseline levels via continuous proprietary aftermarket price realization
Adjusted EPS compounding strongly through FY2031 supported by accretive acquisition integration
Terminal valuation multiple expanding to reflect premium proprietary aerospace market positioning

Base60%

Price target

$1,148.16

+3.2% from spot

The Base case represents the modal expected trajectory where TransDigm delivers 100-150 bps organic margin expansion on constant mix, absorbs acquisition dilution over 24 months, and compounds earnings in line with management guidance and post-earnings consensus estimates.

Multi-year revenue compounding in line with commercial aftermarket flight-hour recovery and defense budget growth
Operating margins expanding steadily from FY2026 through FY2030 supported by constant-mix productivity gains
Adjusted EPS compounding at a steady double-digit pace through FY2031 anchored by organic margin expansion
Terminal valuation multiple sustained in line with historical median contractor benchmarks
Cost of equity of 9.10%

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($1,148.16). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.

Ke ↓ / g →	2.5%	2.8%	3.0%	3.3%	3.5%
8.1%	$1,263	$1,298	$1,336	$1,378	$1,425
8.6%	$1,175	$1,203	$1,234	$1,267	$1,305
9.1%	$1,100	$1,123	$1,148	$1,175	$1,205
9.6%	$1,035	$1,054	$1,075	$1,097	$1,122
10.1%	$978	$994	$1,012	$1,030	$1,051

Scorecard

Published factor rows and weighted composite

Calendar

Next earnings

Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.

Upcoming

DateLoading

Window—

EPS estimate—

Revenue estimate—

Sector percentile context

Forward P/E23.1

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Trailing P/E34.3

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROEn/a

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROICn/a

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Benchmarks · 1M

Deeper analysis on TDG

14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need

Forecast

Base and Bull forecast paths with report-date return framing.

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Valuation

Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.

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Sensitivity

Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.

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Risks

Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.

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Earnings

Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.

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Position sizing

Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.

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Financials

Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.

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Peers

Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.

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Moat

Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.

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Industry cycle

Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.

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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.

Frequently asked questions

About this TDG report

What is the latest published TDG stock rating?

TransDigm Group Incorporated is shown with Hold in the latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-22. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the dated rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.

Where can I read the full TDG analysis?

The full latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-22, lives at /stocks/TDG/analysis. The bare ticker page summarizes that read and links to each analysis tab; earlier editions remain under /analysis/archive.

What fair value is used for TDG?

The latest published report analyzed 2026-10-22 gives TDG a fair value of USD 1,148 and a potential value of USD 1,369. These are dated research outputs, not live market prices; review the valuation assumptions, sensitivity analysis, and material risks before making a decision.

How often is the TDG page updated?

The hub selects the latest published stock report regardless of age and displays its analysis date (2026-10-22). Separately sourced market data is labeled with its own recorded timestamp and is never inferred from the report.

HoldTDG · Fair value $1,148+3.2%

Read full analysis →

Category	Score	Reading
Valuation	6.0
Management	8.5
Balance Sheet	6.5
Profitability	5.5
Revenue Growth	7.5
Risk Assessment	6.5
Competitive Moat	9.0
Earnings Quality	6.5
Capital Efficiency	7.5

TransDigm Group Incorporated (TDG)

Our latest published analysis: TDG rated Hold

Price

Financial snapshot

Fair-value bridge

Latest news · TDG

Valuation

Base and Bull scenarios

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

Scorecard

Next earnings

Sector percentile context

Deeper analysis on TDG

Frequently asked questions

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