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Atlassian maintains an immense moat in developer and project management tooling (Jira, Confluence). However, extreme reliance on Stock-Based Compensation obscures true profitability, masking negative GAAP margins beneath robust free cash flow. Continued cloud migration and enterprise upmarket penetration drive top-line resilience, but eventual multiple expansion will strictly require GAAP margin improvement and SBC rationalization. Fair value range: low $185, high $400, with mid-point at $282.
Stock analysis

TEAM Atlassian Corporation fair value $282–$400

TEAM
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
分析日: 2026-05-09次回更新: 2026-08-09Methodology v2.4Archetype: Pre-profitNASDAQ · Information Technology
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株価
$91.60
▲ +189.90 (+207.31%)
公正価値
$282
$282–$400
評価
強い買い
confidence 65/100
上昇余地
+207.3%
upside to fair value
安全余裕率
$239.28
buy below · 15%
時価総額
$23.2B
P/E fwd 14.7
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§1 エグゼクティブサマリー

  • Primary $281.50 target driven by immense 84% gross margin leverage and sticky enterprise moat.
  • Extreme divergence from $142 consensus stems from the market extrapolating near-term SBC dilution into perpetuity.
  • FCF remains exceptionally robust ($1.41B) but is offset nearly 1:1 by stock issuance.
  • Valuation explicitly demands GAAP operating margins reaching 22% and securing an 8x EV/Revenue multiple.
Fair value
$282
Margin of safety
+67.5%
Confidence
65/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$91.60Price
FV $281.5
High $399.57

Atlassian maintains an immense moat in developer and project management tooling (Jira, Confluence). However, extreme reliance on Stock-Based Compensation obscures true profitability, masking negative GAAP margins beneath robust free cash flow. Continued cloud migration and enterprise upmarket penetration drive top-line resilience, but eventual multiple expansion will strictly require GAAP margin improvement and SBC rationalization.

  • High switching costs in core
    High switching costs in core Jira/Confluence deployments
  • Network effects in collaborative Jira
    Network effects in collaborative Jira Service Management
  • Cycle upside
    Enterprise cloud migration phase concludes, shifting momentum to high-margin recurring renewals and AI upsells.

§2 ベアケース

A severe macroeconomic contraction in software developer hiring halts seat expansion entirely. Combined with investor refusal to back out ~26% SBCStock-based compensationThe fair-value cost of equity awards (options, RSUs, performance shares) granted to employees. A real economic expense even though it is non-cash., multiple compression drives valuation toward PEGPEG ratioForward P/E divided by growth rate as integer percent (e.g. 20 for 20% growth). A PEG of 1.0 is the conventional fair-value reference; below 1.0 is cheap relative to growth.-adjusted peer lows.

このテーゼが崩れる経路

Macro Seat Deceleration

· Medium

Prolonged tech hiring freezes permanently stall organic seat expansion, breaking the core growth assumption.

FV impact
Severe (-50%)
Trigger
12-24 months

Perpetual SBC Dilution

· High

Stock-based compensation remains above 25% of revenue, permanently depressing GAAP operating margins.

FV impact
Severe (-40%)
Trigger
2-3 years

AI Displacement

· Low

AI-driven developer efficiency reduces total enterprise engineering headcount needs, shrinking TEAM's TAM.

FV impact
Moderate (-20%)
Trigger
3-5 years
監視すべき早期警戒シグナル
指標現在トリガーしきい値
SBC remains > 25% of total revenueMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Cloud revenue growth structurally falls < 15%MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Enterprise customer churn spikes post-migrationMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
GAAP operating margin materially misses 22% targetMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Gross margin degrades below 80% baselineMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 財務履歴

損益計算書 — 直近6期
項目T−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
期間2021-06-302022-06-302023-06-302024-06-302025-06-30Trend
売上高—$2.80B$3.53B$4.36B$5.22B+16.8%
売上総利益—$2.35B$2.90B$3.56B$4.32B+16.4%
営業利益—$70.1M$-345.2M$-117.1M$-130.4MNaN%
純利益—$-519.5M$-486.8M$-300.5M$-256.7M—
EPS (希薄化後)$-2.79$-2.42$-1.90$-1.16——
EBITDA—$-377.7M$-220.1M$27.4M$24.0M—
研究開発—$1.29B$1.87B$2.18B$2.67B+19.9%
販管費—$978.7M$1.37B$1.48B$1.77B+15.9%

品質スコア

OCF / 純利益
-5.69
>1 は利益の質が高いことを示す
会計品質ゲート
Fail
セクター調整後ゲート
ROIC
-0.0%
投下資本利益率
セクション 3

Numbers analysis

資本配分

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

個人サブスクライバー — §4以降11セクション追加

完全な分析を読む — 11セクション追加。

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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FAQ

TEAM — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, TEAM looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $91.6 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $282 (range $185–$400), which implies roughly 207.3% upside to the midpoint.

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