Target Corporation (TGT)

NYSE: TGT · USD

$149

+0.58 (+0.4%)· Recorded snapshot

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StockMarketAgent Research · Analyzed 2026-09-28

Our latest published analysis: TGT rated Reduce

Target Corporation's published Reduce conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.

Fair value

$130 / share

Potential value

$137 / share

Upside to FV

-17.6%

from $149

Moat

6.5/10

Narrow

Read full analysis →View archive · 24mo

9-phase methodology · same model in each published edition

Market cap	$71.5B
Revenue (ttm)	107.7B
Net income (ttm)	4.4B
EPS (ttm)	$9.64
Shares out	454.3M
P/E (trailing)	15.4x
P/E (forward)	15.6x
Dividend	$4.64 (3.13%)
Volume	2,254,520
Beta	0.98

Market data

Price

Recent price action with selectable time range.

Financial snapshot

Revenue (ttm): 107.7B
Net income (ttm): 4.4B
EPS (ttm): $9.64
P/E (trailing): 15.4x
P/E (forward): 15.6x
Market cap: $71.5B

Item	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5	Trend
Period	2022-01-29	2023-01-28	2024-02-03	2025-02-01	2026-01-31	Trend
Revenue	$106.01B	$109.12B	$107.41B	$106.57B	$104.78B	-0.3%
Gross profit	$31.04B	$26.81B	$29.58B	$30.06B	$29.27B	-1.5%
Operating income	$8.95B	$3.85B	$5.71B	$5.57B	$5.12B	-13.0%
Net income	$6.95B	$2.78B	$4.14B	$4.09B	$3.71B	-14.5%
EPS (diluted)	$14.10	$5.98	$8.94	$8.86	$8.13	-12.9%
EBITDA	$11.97B	$6.60B	$8.60B	$8.65B	$8.35B	-8.6%
R&D	—	—	—	—	—	—
SG&A	$19.75B	$20.58B	$21.46B	$21.97B	$21.54B	+2.2%

Ticker	Name	Market cap	P/E	P/S	ROIC	5Y rev CAGR	1Y total return	Rating
BA	The Boeing Company	132.2B	18.0x	1.4x	-0.8%	+8.6%	-25.2%	売り
BMY	Bristol-Myers Squibb Company	123.6B	13.3x	2.5x	21.7%	+2.1%	+45.8%	売り
CHTR	Charter Communications, Inc.	17.2B	2.7x	0.3x	8.5%	+1.7%	-57.3%	強い買い
ADM	Archer-Daniels-Midland Company	37.3B	21.2x	0.5x	5.0%	+1.8%	+28.5%	縮小
BF.B	Brown-Forman Corporation Class B	12.7B	17.9x	3.3x	14.3%	+1.6%	+0.4%	買い
CAG	Conagra Brands, Inc.	6.6B	—	0.6x	9.2%	+0.2%	-18.9%	強い買い

Base and Bull scenarios

Base55%

Price target

$129.82

-17.5% from spot

The modal path assumes gradual operational turnaround where middle-mile digital twin deployment resolves fulfillment friction and essential categories anchor customer visit frequency. Operating margins normalize toward modeled expectations as high-margin categories stabilize. At $157.45 (as of 2026-09-25), the shares trade above $129.82, indicating that the market has already capitalized operational turnaround gains without providing a margin of safety. Disconfirmation would occur if operating margin fails to reach modeled levels or if discretionary sales contract.

Middle-mile inventory simulation lowers logistics bottlenecks and reduces fulfillment surcharges.
Everyday essentials sustain guest trip frequency while apparel and home stabilize.
Capital intensity moderates toward historical depreciation levels over the forecast horizon.

Bull20%

Price target

$137.07

-12.9% from spot

The upside path envisions accelerated turnaround execution where digital twin supply chain efficiencies generate structural operating cost savings, as operating margins expand, lifting earnings power toward the Potential value of $137.07 per share. Cultural brand partnerships and exclusive collaborations expand market share and drive strong comp growth in discretionary categories, justifying valuation multiple expansion relative to retail peers. Disconfirmation would occur if promotional discounting is required to clear inventory or if guest traffic slows.

Digital twin optimization accelerates operating cost reductions ahead of expectations.
Curated brand collaborations re-energize discretionary basket size and guest foot-traffic.
Omnichannel fulfillment scale generates sustained operating leverage across the store network.

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($129.82). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.

Ke ↓ / g →	2.0%	2.3%	2.5%	2.8%	3.0%
8.0%	$130	$130	$130	$130	$130
8.5%	$130	$130	$130	$130	$130
9.0%	$130	$130	$130	$130	$130
9.5%	$130	$130	$130	$130	$130
10.0%	$130	$130	$130	$130	$130

Scorecard

Published factor rows and weighted composite

Calendar

Next earnings

Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.

Upcoming

DateLoading

Window—

EPS estimate—

Revenue estimate—

Sector percentile context

Refreshed 2026-10-28 19:55 UTC

Forward P/E15.6

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Trailing P/E16.3

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROE26.4

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROIC13.2

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Benchmarks · 1M

All TGT indicators

Market & fundamental data

Available fields

291

Groups with data

Currency

USD

Showing 291 of 291 available metrics for this ticker.

Profile and market data

Ticker identity, listing, currency, market cap, and source dates.

Metric	Value
Amount currency	USD
CIK code	0000027419
Company name	Target Corporation
Country	United States
Country code	US
CUSIP number	87612E106
Earnings date	2026-11-18
Earnings time	bmo
Employees	415,000
Employees change	-25,000
Employees growth	-5.68%
Enterprise value	$81.3B
Exchange	NYSE
Financial currency	USD
Financial report date	2026-08-01
First seen	2026-05-09
Fiscal year end	January
Founded	1902
In index	SP500
Industry	Discount Stores
Is primary listing	Yes
Is SPAC	No
ISIN number	US87612E1064
Last 10-K release date	2026-03-11
Last earnings date	2026-08-19
Last refreshed	2026-10-28
Last stock split date	2000-07-20
Last stock split type	Forward
Market cap	$67.5B
Market cap category	Large-Cap
Next earnings date	2026-11-18
Options	Yes
Price	$148.59
Price currency	USD
Sector	Consumer Staples
SIC code	5331
Stock price date	2026-10-28
Symbol	TGT
U.S. state	Minnesota
Website	https://corporate.target.com

Valuation

Multiples, yields, enterprise-value ratios, and valuation checks.

Metric	Value
Adjusted P/E ratio	14.8x
Average P/E ratio (10Y)	15.97x
Average P/E ratio (3Y)	14.28x
Average P/E ratio (5Y)	16.82x
Earnings yield	6.49%
EV/Earnings	18.48x
EV/EBIT	14.97x
EV/EBITDA	9.44x
EV/FCF	18.21x
EV/Sales	0.75x
FCF / EV yield	5.49%
FCF yield	6.61%
Forward EV/Sales	0.72x
Forward P/E	15.98x
Forward P/S	0.6x
Graham number	92.30787
Graham upside	-37.76%
Industry forward P/E	36.27x
Industry P/E	38.52x
Lynch fair value	$48.21
Lynch upside	-67.49%
P/(FCF - SBC) ratio	16.22x
P/(OCF - SBC) ratio	8x
P/B ratio	3.77x
P/E ratio	15.41x
P/FCF ratio	15.12x
P/OCF ratio	7.72x
P/S ratio	0.63x
PEG ratio	2.78x
Price / tangible book value	3.78x
Price/EBITDA ratio	7.84x
Sector forward P/E	21.33x
Sector P/E	28.29x

Profitability

Margins, returns on capital, cash conversion, and quality metrics.

Metric	Value
EBIT margin	5.03%
EBITDA margin	7.98%
Effective tax rate	22.4%
FCF margin	4.14%
Gross margin	28.38%
Operating margin	5.03%
Pretax margin	5.26%
Profit margin	4.08%
Profit per employee	$10,583
Profitable quarters	46
Profitable years	11
Revenue per employee	$259,530
ROA	5.69%
ROA (5Y)	6.76%
ROCE	13.53%
ROE	26.41%
ROE (5Y)	32.15%
ROIC	13.19%
ROIC (5Y)	17.63%
SBC / revenue	0.28%
Tax / revenue	1.18%

Growth

Revenue, earnings, cash-flow, and forward growth indicators.

Metric	Value
EPS growth	12.4%
EPS growth (Q)	100.49%
EPS growth (QoQ)	140.35%
EPS growth 10Y	5.96%
EPS growth 3Y	9.75%
EPS growth 5Y	-5.11%
EPS growth quarters	1
EPS growth years	0
FCF growth	51.36%
FCF growth (Q)	141.23%
FCF growth 3Y	39.74%
FCF growth 5Y	-6.57%
Gross profit growth	3.96%
Gross profit growth (Q)	8.68%
Gross profit growth 3Y	2.73%
Gross profit growth 5Y	0.14%
Net income growth	11.81%
Net income growth (Q)	100.75%
Net income growth (QoQ)	140.33%
Net income growth 3Y	9.2%
Net income growth 5Y	-6.98%
Net income growth quarters	1
Net income growth years	0
OCF growth	36.6%
OCF growth (Q)	82.57%
OCF growth (QoQ)	431.15%
OCF growth 10Y	6.65%
OCF growth 3Y	5.34%
OCF growth 5Y	-0.25%
Operating income growth	8.31%
Operating income growth (Q)	17.08%
Operating income growth 3Y	3.97%
Operating income growth 5Y	-9.08%
Revenue growth	1.96%
Revenue growth (Q)	5.27%
Revenue growth (QoQ)	4.31%
Revenue growth 10Y	4.17%
Revenue growth 3Y	-0.09%
Revenue growth 5Y	1.43%
Revenue growth quarters	2
Revenue growth years	0

Financial statements

Income-statement and cash-flow amounts, totals and per share.

Metric	Value
Capital expenditures	$-4.3B
Depreciation and amortization	$3.2B
EBIT	$5.4B
EBITDA	$8.6B
EPS	$9.64
FCF per share	$9.81
Financing cash flow	$-3.5B
Free cash flow	$4.5B
Free cash flow minus SBC	$4.2B
Gross profit	$30.6B
Income taxes	$1.3B
Investing cash flow	$-4.2B
Net borrowing	$-1.1B
Net cash flow	$1.1B
Net income	$4.4B
Operating cash flow minus SBC	$8.4B
Operating income	$5.4B
Revenue	$107.7B
Stock-based compensation	$302M

Financial strength

Debt, cash, solvency, accounting-quality, and balance-sheet signals.

Metric	Value
Altman Z-Score	2.99
Book value per share	$39.28
Debt / EBITDA	2.07
Debt / equity	1.08
Debt / FCF	4.31
Interest coverage	12.66
Long-term assets	$40.3B
Long-term liabilities	$22.2B
Net cash (debt)	$-13.8B
Net cash / market cap	-20.46%
Net debt / EBITDA	1.6
Net debt / equity	0.77
Net debt / FCF	3.09
Piotroski F-Score	6
Property, plant and equipment	$38.4B
Shareholders' equity	$17.8B
Tangible book value	$17.8B
Tangible book value per share	$39.28
Total assets	$61.2B
Total cash	$5.4B
Total debt	$19.2B
Total liabilities	$43.4B
WACC	7.89%

Liquidity

Current-asset coverage and working-capital efficiency metrics.

Metric	Value
Asset turnover	1.81
Current assets	$20.9B
Current liabilities	$21.2B
Current ratio	0.99
Inventory turnover	5.9
Net working capital	$-4.1B
Quick ratio	0.26
Working capital	$-252M
Working capital turnover	-488.46

Dividends and buybacks

Dividend yield, payout, buybacks, and shareholder-yield indicators.

Metric	Value
Buyback yield / dilution	0.51%
Dividend growth	1.77%
Dividend growth (10Y)	7.08%
Dividend growth (3Y)	1.8%
Dividend growth (5Y)	7.8%
Dividend growth years	55
Dividend payment date	2026-12-01
Dividend payment years	56
Dividend payout frequency	Quarterly
Dividend per share	$4.64
Dividend yield	3.13%
Ex-dividend date	2026-11-10
FCF payout ratio	47.31%
Last dividend	$1.16
Payout ratio	48.12%
Shareholder yield	3.64%

Performance and technicals

Returns, volatility, beta, momentum, RSI, and moving-average context.

Metric	Value
10Y price change	119.76%
10Y return CAGR	11.49%
10Y total return	196.69%
150-day SMA	$140.29
15Y price change	167.46%
15Y return CAGR	9.93%
15Y total return	313.59%
1D price change	0.39%
1M price change	-5.62%
1M total return	-5.62%
1W price change	-3.51%
1W total return	-3.51%
1Y price change	51.99%
1Y return CAGR	58.19%
1Y total return	58.14%
20-day SMA	$153.34
200-day SMA	$133.58
20Y price change	153.76%
20Y return CAGR	7.47%
20Y total return	322.16%
3M price change	5.89%
3M total return	6.7%
3Y price change	38.58%
3Y return CAGR	15.65%
3Y total return	54.68%
50-day SMA	$157.36
50-day SMA vs 200-day SMA	50over200
52-week high	$170.75
52-week high date	2026-08-24
52-week low	$83.44
52-week low date	2025-11-20
5Y price change	-42.08%
5Y return CAGR	-7.51%
5Y total return	-32.31%
6M price change	14.55%
6M total return	16.52%
All-time high	$268.98
All-time high date	2021-11-15
All-time low	$0.14
All-time low date	1974-12-20
Average true range (ATR)	$4.27
Average volume	3.8M
Beta (1Y)	0.14
Beta (2Y)	0.45
Beta (5Y)	0.98
Change from 52-week high	-12.98%
Change from 52-week low	78.08%
Change from all-time high	-44.75%
Change from all-time low	109,648.89%
Change from open	0.79%
Day's gap	-0.39%
Dollar volume	$335M
High price	$149.24
Low price	$145.92
Monthly RSI	59.36
Open price	$147.43
Position in 52-week range	80.42%
Premarket change	-0.45%
Premarket close	$148.01
Premarket price	$147.35
Premarket volume	2.1K
Previous close	$148.01
Price vs 150-day SMA	5.92%
Price vs 20-day SMA	-3.09%
Price vs 200-day SMA	11.25%
Price vs 50-day SMA	-5.57%
Relative volume	0.59
RSI	40.78
Sharpe ratio	1.52
Sharpe ratio (3Y)	0.48
Sharpe ratio (5Y)	-0.13
Sortino ratio	2.55
Sortino ratio (3Y)	0.85
Sortino ratio (5Y)	-0.03
Volume	2.3M
Weekly RSI	55.14
YTD price change	52.02%
YTD total return	56.21%

Ownership and float

Institutional, insider, float, short-interest, and share-count fields.

Metric	Value
Float	452.8M
Float percentage	99.67%
Shares change (QoQ)	0.18%
Shares change (YoY)	-0.51%
Shares held by insiders	0.17%
Shares held by institutions	88.48%
Shares outstanding	454.3M
Short % of float	3.81%
Short % of shares	3.8%
Short ratio	5.2 days

Other indicators

Additional ticker metrics that do not fit the primary research groupings.

Metric	Value
Page views	179

Deeper analysis on TGT

14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need

Forecast

Base and Bull forecast paths with report-date return framing.

→

Valuation

Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.

→

Sensitivity

Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.

→

Risks

Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.

→

Earnings

Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.

→

Position sizing

Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.

→

Financials

Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.

→

Peers

Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.

→

Moat

Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.

→

Industry cycle

Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.

→

Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.

Frequently asked questions

About this TGT report

What is the latest published TGT stock rating?

Target Corporation is shown with Reduce in the latest published report, analyzed 2026-09-28. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the dated rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.

Where can I read the full TGT analysis?

The full latest published report, analyzed 2026-09-28, lives at /stocks/TGT/analysis. The bare ticker page summarizes that read and links to each analysis tab; earlier editions remain under /analysis/archive.

What fair value is used for TGT?

The latest published report analyzed 2026-09-28 gives TGT a fair value of USD 130 and a potential value of USD 137. These are dated research outputs, not live market prices; review the valuation assumptions, sensitivity analysis, and material risks before making a decision.

How often is the TGT page updated?

The hub selects the latest published stock report regardless of age and displays its analysis date (2026-09-28). Separately sourced market data is labeled with its own recorded timestamp and is never inferred from the report.

ReduceTGT · Fair value $130-17.6%

Read full analysis →

Target Corporation (TGT)

Our latest published analysis: TGT rated Reduce

Price

Financial snapshot

Fair-value bridge

Latest news · TGT

Valuation

Profitability

Balance sheet

Trading

Base and Bull scenarios

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

Scorecard

Next earnings

Sector percentile context

All TGT indicators

Profile and market data

Valuation

Profitability

Growth

Financial statements

Financial strength

Liquidity

Dividends and buybacks

Performance and technicals

Ownership and float

Other indicators

Deeper analysis on TGT

Frequently asked questions

レーティング履歴

Category	Score	Reading
Valuation	3.0
Management	7.5
Balance Sheet	3.0
Profitability	7.0
Revenue Growth	6.0
Risk Assessment	4.5
Competitive Moat	6.5
Earnings Quality	9.0
Capital Efficiency	6.5