The Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV)

NYSE: TRV · USD

$394

-3.30 (-0.8%)· Recorded snapshot

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StockMarketAgent Research · Analyzed 2026-09-27

Our latest published analysis: TRV rated Sell

The Travelers Companies, Inc.'s published Sell conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.

Fair value

$242 / share

Potential value

$333 / share

Upside to FV

-33.3%

from $394

Moat

6.5/10

Narrow

Read full analysis →View archive · 24mo

9-phase methodology · same model in each published edition

Market cap	$75.7B
Revenue (ttm)	48.9B
Net income (ttm)	8.3B
EPS (ttm)	$38.2
Shares out	204.9M
P/E (trailing)	10.3x
P/E (forward)	10.4x
Dividend	$5.00 (1.27%)
Volume	1,147,598
Beta	0.44

Market data

Price

Recent price action with selectable time range.

Financial snapshot

Revenue (ttm): 48.9B
Net income (ttm): 8.3B
EPS (ttm): $38.2
P/E (trailing): 10.3x
P/E (forward): 10.4x
Market cap: $75.7B

Item	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5	Trend
Period	2021-12-31	2022-12-31	2023-12-31	2024-12-31	2025-12-31	Trend
Revenue	$34.82B	$36.88B	$41.36B	$46.42B	$48.83B	+8.8%
Gross profit	$9.48B	$8.53B	$8.93B	$12.40B	$14.34B	+10.9%
Operating income	$4.80B	$3.71B	$3.75B	$6.57B	$8.22B	+14.4%
Net income	$3.66B	$2.84B	$2.99B	$5.00B	$6.29B	+14.5%
EPS (diluted)	$14.49	$11.77	$12.79	$21.47	$27.43	+17.3%
EBITDA	$5.67B	$4.53B	$4.47B	$7.29B	$8.90B	+11.9%
R&D	—	—	—	—	—	—
SG&A	$4.68B	$4.81B	$5.18B	$5.82B	$6.12B	+7.0%

Ticker	Name	Market cap	P/E	P/S	ROIC	5Y rev CAGR	1Y total return	Rating
ACGL	Arch Capital Group Ltd.	34.8B	8.3x	1.8x	15.9%	+15.1%	+18.7%	強い買い
AIG	American International Group Inc.	41.7B	14.7x	1.6x	7.7%	-9.6%	+2.8%	強い買い
AIZ	Assurant, Inc.	14.1B	13.6x	1.0x	14.4%	+6.6%	+36.2%	ホールド
AJG	Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.	66.7B	43.2x	4.4x	6.6%	+15.3%	-5.7%	買い
ALL	The Allstate Corporation	63.2B	5.0x	0.9x	32.6%	+8.5%	+31.8%	強い買い
AMP	Ameriprise Financial, Inc.	43.1B	11.8x	2.2x	43.0%	+8.9%	+1.1%	買い

Base and Bull scenarios

Base55%

Price target

$242.21

-33.3% from spot

The base case models commercial lines pricing discipline sustaining normalized operating margins above the property and casualty industry benchmark, supported by expense ratio discipline and float reinvestment yields. Underwriting earnings normalize in FY2027 following peak results in FY2026. This trajectory produces a target of $242.21 with a probability of 55.0%, representing a return of -33.3% from $363.04. The case would be disconfirmed if commercial lines renewal rate changes turn negative or severe weather catastrophe losses persistently exceed annual loss budgets.

Commercial lines pricing adjustments offset loss-cost inflation to sustain normalized operating margins
Expense ratio tracks management full-year targets
Float reinvestment yields compound net investment income
Underwriting earnings normalize in FY2027 following peak FY2026 levels

Bull20%

Price target

$333.38

-8.2% from spot

The bull case assumes commercial and personal lines rate increases consistently exceed loss-cost inflation while automated claim processing keeps expense ratios favorable. Maturing fixed-income securities reinvest into elevated yields, accelerating net investment income and driving return on equity higher, funded by ongoing share repurchases. Under these conditions, the bull case projects a target of $333.38 with an estimated probability of 20.0%, generating an expected return of -8.2% relative to $363.04. This path would be disconfirmed by competitive rate resistance from national scale peers or an abrupt drop in benchmark interest rates.

Commercial rate increases sustain operating margins above mid-cycle levels
Fixed income float reinvestment drives accelerating investment income
Ongoing share repurchases enhance per-share capital compounding
Valuation multiple expands toward top-tier peer levels

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($242.21). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.

Ke ↓ / g →	2.0%	2.3%	2.5%	2.8%	3.0%
6.1%	$251	$252	$253	$255	$257
6.6%	$245	$246	$247	$249	$250
7.1%	$241	$241	$242	$243	$244
7.6%	$236	$237	$238	$238	$239
8.1%	$232	$233	$233	$234	$235

Scorecard

Published factor rows and weighted composite

Calendar

Next earnings

Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.

Upcoming

DateLoading

Window—

EPS estimate—

Revenue estimate—

Sector percentile context

Refreshed 2026-10-28 19:55 UTC

Forward P/E10.4

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Trailing P/E9.8

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROE27.5

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROIC21.5

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Benchmarks · 1M

All TRV indicators

Market & fundamental data

Available fields

252

Groups with data

Currency

USD

Showing 252 of 252 available metrics for this ticker.

Profile and market data

Ticker identity, listing, currency, market cap, and source dates.

Metric	Value
Amount currency	USD
CIK code	0000086312
Company name	The Travelers Companies, Inc.
Country	United States
Country code	US
CUSIP number	89417E109
Earnings date	2026-10-16
Earnings time	bmo
Employees	34,000
Employees change	0
Employees growth	0%
Enterprise value	$89.9B
Exchange	NYSE
Financial currency	USD
Financial report date	2026-09-30
First seen	2026-05-09
Fiscal year end	December
Founded	1853
In index	SP500, DOW30
Industry	Insurance - Property & Casualty
IPO date	1996-04-22
Is primary listing	Yes
Is SPAC	No
ISIN number	US89417E1091
Last 10-K release date	2026-02-12
Last earnings date	2026-10-16
Last refreshed	2026-10-28
Last stock split date	2004-04-02
Last stock split type	Reverse
Market cap	$80.7B
Market cap category	Large-Cap
Next earnings date	2027-01-20
Options	Yes
Price	$393.74
Price currency	USD
Sector	Financials
SIC code	6331
Stock price date	2026-10-28
Symbol	TRV
U.S. state	New York
Website	https://www.travelers.com

Valuation

Multiples, yields, enterprise-value ratios, and valuation checks.

Metric	Value
Adjusted P/E ratio	10.35x
Average P/E ratio (10Y)	13.06x
Average P/E ratio (3Y)	11.66x
Average P/E ratio (5Y)	12.46x
Earnings yield	9.7%
EV/Earnings	10.96x
EV/EBIT	8.38x
EV/EBITDA	7.87x
EV/Sales	1.85x
Forward EV/Sales	2.06x
Forward P/E	12.87x
Forward P/S	1.85x
Graham number	348.72009
Graham upside	-12.27%
Industry forward P/E	12.53x
Industry P/E	10.09x
Lynch fair value	$688.42
Lynch upside	73.19%
P/B ratio	2.81x
P/E ratio	10.31x
P/OCF ratio	7.63x
P/S ratio	1.67x
PEG ratio	4.39x
Price / tangible book value	3.31x
Price/EBITDA ratio	7.07x
Sector forward P/E	13.63x
Sector P/E	15.65x

Profitability

Margins, returns on capital, cash conversion, and quality metrics.

Metric	Value
EBIT margin	22.12%
EBITDA margin	23.55%
Effective tax rate	19.56%
Gross margin	34.86%
Operating margin	22.12%
Pretax margin	21.17%
Profit margin	17.03%
Profit per employee	$243,294
Profitable quarters	13
Profitable years	23
Revenue per employee	$1.4M
ROA	4.73%
ROA (5Y)	2.66%
ROCE	21.86%
ROE	27.5%
ROE (5Y)	15.28%
ROIC	21.49%
ROIC (5Y)	12.75%
Tax / revenue	4.14%

Growth

Revenue, earnings, cash-flow, and forward growth indicators.

Metric	Value
EPS growth	50.13%
EPS growth (Q)	9.71%
EPS growth (QoQ)	-11.89%
EPS growth 10Y	14.5%
EPS growth 3Y	60.21%
EPS growth 5Y	21.74%
EPS growth quarters	6
EPS growth years	3
Net income growth	41.85%
Net income growth (Q)	1.54%
Net income growth (QoQ)	-13.18%
Net income growth 3Y	56.24%
Net income growth 5Y	18.02%
Net income growth quarters	6
Net income growth years	3
OCF growth	6.93%
OCF growth (Q)	-8.26%
OCF growth (QoQ)	102.4%
OCF growth 10Y	10.82%
OCF growth 3Y	15.4%
OCF growth 5Y	7.37%
Revenue growth	1.07%
Revenue growth (Q)	-0.47%
Revenue growth (QoQ)	2.13%
Revenue growth 10Y	6.08%
Revenue growth 3Y	6.88%
Revenue growth 5Y	7.42%
Revenue growth years	10

Financial statements

Income-statement and cash-flow amounts, totals and per share.

Metric	Value
EBIT	$10.8B
EBITDA	$11.5B
EPS	$38.19
Financing cash flow	$-6.6B
Gross profit	$17.1B
Income taxes	$2B
Investing cash flow	$-3.9B
Net borrowing	$544M
Net cash flow	$37M
Net income	$8.3B
Operating income	$10.8B
Revenue	$48.9B

Financial strength

Debt, cash, solvency, accounting-quality, and balance-sheet signals.

Metric	Value
Book value per share	$141.51
Debt / EBITDA	0.85
Debt / equity	0.34
Goodwill	$4.1B
Interest coverage	23.37
Net cash (debt)	$-9.2B
Net cash / market cap	-11.29%
Net debt / EBITDA	0.8
Net debt / equity	0.32
Piotroski F-Score	4
Shareholders' equity	$29B
Tangible book value	$24.6B
Tangible book value per share	$120.10
Total assets	$142.1B
Total cash	$6.2B
Total debt	$9.8B
Total liabilities	$113.1B
WACC	6.35%

Liquidity

Current-asset coverage and working-capital efficiency metrics.

Metric	Value
Asset turnover	0.34
Current ratio	0.33
Net working capital	$-62.7B
Quick ratio	0.2
Working capital	$-62.1B

Dividends and buybacks

Dividend yield, payout, buybacks, and shareholder-yield indicators.

Metric	Value
Buyback yield / dilution	5.55%
Dividend growth	11.49%
Dividend growth (10Y)	6.35%
Dividend growth (3Y)	7.26%
Dividend growth (5Y)	6.8%
Dividend growth years	20
Dividend payment date	2026-12-31
Dividend payment years	24
Dividend payout frequency	Quarterly
Dividend per share	$5.00
Dividend yield	1.27%
Ex-dividend date	2026-12-10
Last dividend	$1.25
Payout ratio	13.09%
Shareholder yield	6.81%

Performance and technicals

Returns, volatility, beta, momentum, RSI, and moving-average context.

Metric	Value
10Y price change	264.58%
10Y return CAGR	16.27%
10Y total return	351.27%
150-day SMA	$339.99
15Y price change	563%
15Y return CAGR	16.01%
15Y total return	827.24%
1D price change	-0.83%
1M price change	8.48%
1M total return	8.48%
1W price change	-0.48%
1W total return	-0.48%
1Y price change	45.68%
1Y return CAGR	47.94%
1Y total return	47.9%
20-day SMA	$380.70
200-day SMA	$328.60
20Y price change	688.9%
20Y return CAGR	13.49%
20Y total return	1,155.91%
3M price change	0.89%
3M total return	1.23%
3Y price change	145.1%
3Y return CAGR	37.13%
3Y total return	157.89%
50-day SMA	$373.22
50-day SMA vs 200-day SMA	50over200
52-week high	$407.87
52-week high date	2026-10-22
52-week low	$264.25
52-week low date	2025-11-03
5Y price change	146.48%
5Y return CAGR	22.07%
5Y total return	171.05%
6M price change	29.66%
6M total return	30.64%
All-time high	$407.87
All-time high date	2026-10-22
All-time low	$27.90
All-time low date	2002-09-25
Average true range (ATR)	$7.64
Average volume	1.4M
Beta (1Y)	-0.15
Beta (2Y)	0.28
Beta (5Y)	0.44
Change from 52-week high	-3.46%
Change from 52-week low	49%
Change from all-time high	-3.44%
Change from all-time low	1,311.74%
Change from open	-0.85%
Day's gap	0.02%
Dollar volume	$451.9M
High price	$399.70
Low price	$391.78
Monthly RSI	73.53
Open price	$397.12
Position in 52-week range	24.75%
Premarket change	-0.39%
Premarket close	$397.03
Premarket price	$395.49
Previous close	$397.03
Price vs 150-day SMA	15.83%
Price vs 20-day SMA	3.45%
Price vs 200-day SMA	19.85%
Price vs 50-day SMA	5.52%
Relative volume	0.84
RSI	61.36
Sharpe ratio	1.81
Sharpe ratio (3Y)	1.37
Sharpe ratio (5Y)	0.83
Sortino ratio	3.44
Sortino ratio (3Y)	2.34
Sortino ratio (5Y)	1.51
Volume	1.1M
Weekly RSI	67.54
YTD price change	35.77%
YTD total return	37.3%

Ownership and float

Institutional, insider, float, short-interest, and share-count fields.

Metric	Value
Float	203.7M
Float percentage	99.41%
Shares change (QoQ)	-1.4%
Shares change (YoY)	-5.55%
Shares held by insiders	0.48%
Shares held by institutions	91.36%
Shares outstanding	204.9M
Short % of float	2.89%
Short % of shares	2.88%
Short ratio	4.1 days

Deeper analysis on TRV

14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need

Forecast

Base and Bull forecast paths with report-date return framing.

→

Valuation

Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.

→

Sensitivity

Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.

→

Risks

Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.

→

Earnings

Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.

→

Position sizing

Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.

→

Financials

Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.

→

Peers

Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.

→

Moat

Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.

→

Industry cycle

Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.

→

Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.

Frequently asked questions

About this TRV report

What is the latest published TRV stock rating?

The Travelers Companies, Inc. is shown with Sell in the latest published report, analyzed 2026-09-27. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the dated rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.

Where can I read the full TRV analysis?

The full latest published report, analyzed 2026-09-27, lives at /stocks/TRV/analysis. The bare ticker page summarizes that read and links to each analysis tab; earlier editions remain under /analysis/archive.

What fair value is used for TRV?

The latest published report analyzed 2026-09-27 gives TRV a fair value of USD 242 and a potential value of USD 333. These are dated research outputs, not live market prices; review the valuation assumptions, sensitivity analysis, and material risks before making a decision.

How often is the TRV page updated?

The hub selects the latest published stock report regardless of age and displays its analysis date (2026-09-27). Separately sourced market data is labeled with its own recorded timestamp and is never inferred from the report.

SellTRV · Fair value $242-33.3%

Read full analysis →

The Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV)

Our latest published analysis: TRV rated Sell

Price

Financial snapshot

Fair-value bridge

Latest news · TRV

Valuation

Profitability

Balance sheet

Trading

Base and Bull scenarios

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

Scorecard

Next earnings

Sector percentile context

All TRV indicators

Profile and market data

Valuation

Profitability

Growth

Financial statements

Financial strength

Liquidity

Dividends and buybacks

Performance and technicals

Ownership and float

Deeper analysis on TRV

Frequently asked questions

レーティング履歴

Category	Score	Reading
Valuation	1.5
Management	8.5
Balance Sheet	5.0
Profitability	7.5
Revenue Growth	4.5
Risk Assessment	7.0
Competitive Moat	6.5
Earnings Quality	9.0
Capital Efficiency	6.5