Tractor Supply Company (TSCO)

NASDAQ: TSCO · USD

$31.6

-0.67 (-2.1%)· Recorded snapshot

英語版にフォールバックJA

翻訳中のため英語版を表示しています

このレポートはまだ翻訳されていません。翻訳キューが追いついたら数分後に更新してください。

StockMarketAgent Research · Analyzed 2026-10-21

Our latest published analysis: TSCO rated Hold

Tractor Supply Company's published Hold conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.

Fair value

$34.6 / share

Potential value

$44.5 / share

Upside to FV

+5.0%

from $31.6

Moat

7.5/10

Narrow

Read full analysis →View archive · 24mo

9-phase methodology · same model in each published edition

Market cap	$17.1B
Revenue (ttm)	15.9B
Net income (ttm)	977.3M
EPS (ttm)	$1.86
Shares out	521M
P/E (trailing)	17.0x
P/E (forward)	14.4x
Dividend	$0.96 (3.04%)
Volume	7,507,112
Beta	0.51

Market data

Price

Recent price action with selectable time range.

Financial snapshot

Revenue (ttm): 15.9B
Net income (ttm): 977.3M
EPS (ttm): $1.86
P/E (trailing): 17.0x
P/E (forward): 14.4x
Market cap: $17.1B

Item	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5	Trend
Period	2021-12-25	2022-12-31	2023-12-30	2024-12-28	2025-12-27	Trend
Revenue	$12.73B	$14.20B	$14.56B	$14.88B	$15.52B	+5.1%
Gross profit	$4.48B	$4.97B	$5.23B	$5.40B	$5.65B	+6.0%
Operating income	$1.31B	$1.43B	$1.48B	$1.47B	$1.47B	+2.9%
Net income	$997.1M	$1.09B	$1.11B	$1.10B	$1.10B	+2.4%
EPS (diluted)	$1.72	$1.94	$2.02	$2.04	$2.06	+4.6%
EBITDA	$1.58B	$1.78B	$1.87B	$1.91B	$1.96B	+5.6%
R&D	—	—	—	—	—	—
SG&A	$2.90B	$3.19B	$3.36B	$3.48B	$3.69B	+6.2%

Ticker	Name	Market cap	P/E	P/S	ROIC	5Y rev CAGR	1Y total return	Rating
ABBV	AbbVie Inc.	505.6B	80.8x	7.9x	17.7%	+3.7%	+29.1%	売り
ABT	Abbott Laboratories	177.6B	38.2x	3.7x	7.2%	+2.7%	-17.2%	縮小
ACN	Accenture plc	144.3B	18.0x	2.0x	27.9%	+8.0%	+0.4%	ホールド
ABNB	Airbnb, Inc.	97.8B	37.5x	7.4x	16.8%	+24.4%	+28.5%	売り
AMZN	Amazon.com Inc.	2.7T	20.5x	3.5x	11.9%	+11.8%	+12.2%	売り
APTV	Aptiv PLC	9.1B	42.8x	0.4x	7.8%	+5.5%	-49.2%	買い

Base and Bull scenarios

Base55%

Price target

$34.55

+5.0% from spot

The Base case reflects our modal projection where FY2026 marks the operational trough for Tractor Supply. Comparable store sales stabilize near guided levels in FY2026 before re-accelerating in FY2027 and beyond. Heavy distribution center expenditures peak in FY2026 before tapering toward steady-state levels by FY2030, unlocking substantial free cash flow expansion. This path supports our central Fair value estimate of $34.55 per share.

FY2026 revenue grows 2.75% to $15.95B, with multi-year growth stabilizing between 3.5% and 4.5%
Operating margin troughs at 8.65% in FY2026 before recovering gradually to 9.20% by FY2030
Capital reinvestment rate declines from 45.0% in FY2026 to steady-state 28.0% by FY2030
Diluted shares decline from 526.86M in FY2026 to 505.07M by FY2030
Effective tax rate held at 22.50% and terminal growth rate modeled at 2.50%

Bull20%

Price target

$44.45

+35.1% from spot

In the Bull case, rural consumer spending rebounds sharply from the recent soft patch, and comparable store sales return to solid positive growth. Distribution center additions deliver landed-cost efficiencies faster than anticipated, driving operating margins back toward historical peak levels. Combined with steady annual net share count reductions and rapid integration of Allivet and VIP Petcare, free cash flow generation accelerates well above base expectations, driving valuation toward Potential value of $44.45.

Revenue growth accelerates to 5.0%-6.0% annually driven by strong rural consumer demand and accelerated market share gains
Operating margin expands toward 10.0% as freight rates normalize and distribution center automation yields significant landed cost savings
EPS growth compounds at 7.5%-9.5% annually across the five-year forecast horizon
Share repurchases reduce diluted share count by >1.2% annually

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($34.55). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.

Ke ↓ / g →	2.0%	2.3%	2.5%	2.8%	3.0%
7.3%	$38.0	$39.3	$40.9	$42.7	$44.7
7.8%	$35.1	$36.2	$37.4	$38.7	$40.2
8.3%	$32.8	$33.6	$34.6	$35.6	$36.8
8.8%	$30.8	$31.5	$32.2	$33.1	$34.0
9.3%	$29.1	$29.7	$30.3	$31.0	$31.7

Scorecard

Published factor rows and weighted composite

Calendar

Next earnings

Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.

Upcoming

DateLoading

Window—

EPS estimate—

Revenue estimate—

Sector percentile context

Refreshed 2026-10-28 19:55 UTC

Forward P/E14.5

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Trailing P/E17.1

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROE37.3

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROIC12

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Benchmarks · 1M

All TSCO indicators

Market & fundamental data

Available fields

290

Groups with data

Currency

USD

Showing 290 of 290 available metrics for this ticker.

Profile and market data

Ticker identity, listing, currency, market cap, and source dates.

Metric	Value
Amount currency	USD
CIK code	0000916365
Company name	Tractor Supply Company
Country	United States
Country code	US
CUSIP number	892356106
Earnings date	2026-10-22
Earnings time	bmo
Employees	52,000
Employees change	0
Employees growth	0%
Enterprise value	$23B
Exchange	NASDAQ
Financial currency	USD
Financial report date	2026-09-26
First seen	2026-05-09
Fiscal year end	December
Founded	1938
In index	SP500
Industry	Specialty Retail
IPO date	1994-02-17
Is primary listing	Yes
Is SPAC	No
ISIN number	US8923561067
Last 10-K release date	2026-02-19
Last earnings date	2026-10-22
Last refreshed	2026-10-28
Last stock split date	2024-12-20
Last stock split type	Forward
Market cap	$16.4B
Market cap category	Large-Cap
Next earnings date	2027-01-28
Options	Yes
Price	$31.57
Price currency	USD
Sector	Consumer Discretionary
SIC code	5200
Stock price date	2026-10-28
Symbol	TSCO
U.S. state	Tennessee
Website	https://www.tractorsupply.com

Valuation

Multiples, yields, enterprise-value ratios, and valuation checks.

Metric	Value
Adjusted P/E ratio	15.94x
Average P/E ratio (10Y)	22.19x
Average P/E ratio (3Y)	23.73x
Average P/E ratio (5Y)	23.34x
Earnings yield	5.89%
EV/Earnings	23.74x
EV/EBIT	16.95x
EV/EBITDA	12.3x
EV/FCF	79.93x
EV/Sales	1.46x
FCF / EV yield	1.25%
FCF yield	1.74%
Forward EV/Sales	1.4x
Forward P/E	15.68x
Forward P/S	1.01x
Graham number	14.6211
Graham upside	-54.32%
Industry forward P/E	18.02x
Industry P/E	20.14x
Lynch fair value	$9.30
Lynch upside	-70.96%
P/(FCF - SBC) ratio	73.9x
P/(OCF - SBC) ratio	14.59x
P/B ratio	6.31x
P/E ratio	16.98x
P/FCF ratio	57.46x
P/OCF ratio	13.81x
P/S ratio	1.05x
PEG ratio	2.69x
Price / tangible book value	7.72x
Price/EBITDA ratio	8.84x
Sector forward P/E	24.39x
Sector P/E	30.5x

Profitability

Margins, returns on capital, cash conversion, and quality metrics.

Metric	Value
EBIT margin	8.59%
EBITDA margin	11.84%
Effective tax rate	20.77%
FCF margin	1.82%
Gross margin	36.25%
Operating margin	8.59%
Pretax margin	7.74%
Profit margin	6.13%
Profit per employee	$18,795
Profitable quarters	73
Profitable years	32
Revenue per employee	$306,580
ROA	7.4%
ROA (5Y)	10.2%
ROCE	14.91%
ROE	37.35%
ROE (5Y)	50.49%
ROIC	11.97%
ROIC (5Y)	18.11%
SBC / revenue	0.4%
Tax / revenue	1.61%

Growth

Revenue, earnings, cash-flow, and forward growth indicators.

Metric	Value
EPS growth	-10.14%
EPS growth (Q)	-12.14%
EPS growth (QoQ)	-37.57%
EPS growth 10Y	11.43%
EPS growth 3Y	-3.2%
EPS growth 5Y	3.52%
EPS growth years	25
FCF growth	-69.52%
FCF growth (Q)	-55.23%
FCF growth (QoQ)	-95.88%
FCF growth 3Y	-29.25%
FCF growth 5Y	-17.21%
Gross profit growth	2.93%
Gross profit growth (Q)	2.57%
Gross profit growth 3Y	2.93%
Gross profit growth 5Y	5.83%
Net income growth	-11.56%
Net income growth (Q)	-13.34%
Net income growth (QoQ)	-37.72%
Net income growth 3Y	-4.73%
Net income growth 5Y	1.4%
Net income growth years	0
OCF growth	-33.93%
OCF growth (Q)	-25.46%
OCF growth (QoQ)	-59.17%
OCF growth 10Y	9.86%
OCF growth 3Y	-10.22%
OCF growth 5Y	-0.87%
Operating income growth	-8.01%
Operating income growth (Q)	-10.21%
Operating income growth 3Y	-3.09%
Operating income growth 5Y	0.93%
Revenue growth	3.53%
Revenue growth (Q)	5.15%
Revenue growth (QoQ)	-13.89%
Revenue growth 10Y	9.37%
Revenue growth 3Y	2.27%
Revenue growth 5Y	5.34%
Revenue growth quarters	10
Revenue growth years	31

Financial statements

Income-statement and cash-flow amounts, totals and per share.

Metric	Value
Capital expenditures	$-917.2M
Depreciation and amortization	$518.1M
EBIT	$1.4B
EBITDA	$1.9B
EPS	$1.86
FCF per share	$0.56
Financing cash flow	$-470.1M
Free cash flow	$290.3M
Free cash flow minus SBC	$225.7M
Gross profit	$5.8B
Income taxes	$256.2M
Investing cash flow	$-723.1M
Net borrowing	$488M
Net cash flow	$14.2M
Net income	$977.3M
Operating cash flow minus SBC	$1.1B
Operating income	$1.4B
Revenue	$15.9B
Stock-based compensation	$64.6M

Financial strength

Debt, cash, solvency, accounting-quality, and balance-sheet signals.

Metric	Value
Altman Z-Score	4.11
Book value per share	$5.11
Debt / EBITDA	2.58
Debt / equity	2.53
Debt / FCF	23.15
Interest coverage	18.89
Long-term assets	$8B
Long-term liabilities	$6.5B
Net cash (debt)	$-6.5B
Net cash / market cap	-39.1%
Net debt / EBITDA	3.46
Net debt / equity	2.45
Net debt / FCF	22.47
Piotroski F-Score	5
Property, plant and equipment	$7.4B
Shareholders' equity	$2.7B
Tangible book value	$2.2B
Tangible book value per share	$4.15
Total assets	$12.3B
Total cash	$198.9M
Total debt	$6.7B
Total liabilities	$9.6B
WACC	5.29%

Liquidity

Current-asset coverage and working-capital efficiency metrics.

Metric	Value
Asset turnover	1.38
Current assets	$4.2B
Current liabilities	$3.1B
Current ratio	1.38
Inventory turnover	2.96
Net working capital	$1.4B
Quick ratio	0.13
Working capital	$1.2B
Working capital turnover	15.89

Dividends and buybacks

Dividend yield, payout, buybacks, and shareholder-yield indicators.

Metric	Value
Buyback yield / dilution	1.41%
Dividend growth	4.4%
Dividend growth (10Y)	18.36%
Dividend growth (3Y)	5.81%
Dividend growth (5Y)	19.37%
Dividend growth years	15
Dividend payment date	2026-09-08
Dividend payment years	17
Dividend payout frequency	Quarterly
Dividend per share	$0.96
Dividend yield	3.04%
Ex-dividend date	2026-08-24
FCF payout ratio	172.33%
Last dividend	$0.24
Payout ratio	51.63%
Shareholder yield	4.41%

Performance and technicals

Returns, volatility, beta, momentum, RSI, and moving-average context.

Metric	Value
10Y price change	154.27%
10Y return CAGR	11.59%
10Y total return	199.43%
150-day SMA	$33.87
15Y price change	328.58%
15Y return CAGR	11.72%
15Y total return	427.06%
1D price change	-2.09%
1M price change	-2.18%
1M total return	-2.18%
1W price change	-3.44%
1W total return	-3.44%
1Y price change	-44%
1Y return CAGR	-42.68%
1Y total return	-42.66%
20-day SMA	$32.78
200-day SMA	$38.27
20Y price change	1,198.97%
20Y return CAGR	14.94%
20Y total return	1,519.64%
3M price change	-0.74%
3M total return	-0.05%
3Y price change	-15.97%
3Y return CAGR	-3.8%
3Y total return	-10.96%
50-day SMA	$33.35
50-day SMA vs 200-day SMA	50under200
52-week high	$56.94
52-week high date	2025-11-13
52-week low	$28.36
52-week low date	2026-06-03
5Y price change	-23.72%
5Y return CAGR	-3.5%
5Y total return	-16.33%
6M price change	-11.51%
6M total return	-10.17%
All-time high	$63.99
All-time high date	2025-07-24
All-time low	$0.08
All-time low date	2000-11-21
Average true range (ATR)	$1.28
Average volume	15.5M
Beta (1Y)	0.64
Beta (2Y)	0.63
Beta (5Y)	0.51
Change from 52-week high	-44.56%
Change from 52-week low	11.3%
Change from all-time high	-50.67%
Change from all-time low	38,725.34%
Change from open	-1.14%
Day's gap	-0.96%
Dollar volume	$237M
High price	$32.20
Low price	$31.36
Monthly RSI	34.32
Open price	$31.93
Position in 52-week range	24.4%
Premarket change	-1.02%
Premarket close	$32.24
Premarket price	$31.91
Premarket volume	3.3K
Previous close	$32.24
Price vs 150-day SMA	-6.8%
Price vs 20-day SMA	-3.7%
Price vs 200-day SMA	-17.51%
Price vs 50-day SMA	-5.34%
Relative volume	0.49
RSI	41.78
Sharpe ratio	-1.6
Sharpe ratio (3Y)	-0.18
Sharpe ratio (5Y)	-0.09
Sortino ratio	-1.87
Sortino ratio (3Y)	-0.06
Sortino ratio (5Y)	0.06
Volume	7.5M
Weekly RSI	37.96
YTD price change	-36.88%
YTD total return	-35.64%

Ownership and float

Institutional, insider, float, short-interest, and share-count fields.

Metric	Value
Float	519.4M
Float percentage	99.69%
Shares change (QoQ)	-0.59%
Shares change (YoY)	-1.41%
Shares held by insiders	0.22%
Shares held by institutions	96.04%
Shares outstanding	521M
Short % of float	8.94%
Short % of shares	8.91%
Short ratio	4.7 days

Deeper analysis on TSCO

14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need

Forecast

Base and Bull forecast paths with report-date return framing.

→

Valuation

Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.

→

Sensitivity

Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.

→

Risks

Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.

→

Earnings

Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.

→

Position sizing

Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.

→

Financials

Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.

→

Peers

Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.

→

Moat

Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.

→

Industry cycle

Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.

→

Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.

Frequently asked questions

About this TSCO report

What is the latest published TSCO stock rating?

Tractor Supply Company is shown with Hold in the latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-21. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the dated rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.

Where can I read the full TSCO analysis?

The full latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-21, lives at /stocks/TSCO/analysis. The bare ticker page summarizes that read and links to each analysis tab; earlier editions remain under /analysis/archive.

What fair value is used for TSCO?

The latest published report analyzed 2026-10-21 gives TSCO a fair value of USD 35 and a potential value of USD 44. These are dated research outputs, not live market prices; review the valuation assumptions, sensitivity analysis, and material risks before making a decision.

How often is the TSCO page updated?

The hub selects the latest published stock report regardless of age and displays its analysis date (2026-10-21). Separately sourced market data is labeled with its own recorded timestamp and is never inferred from the report.

HoldTSCO · Fair value $34.6+5.0%

Read full analysis →

Tractor Supply Company (TSCO)

Our latest published analysis: TSCO rated Hold

Price

Financial snapshot

Fair-value bridge

Latest news · TSCO

Valuation

Profitability

Balance sheet

Trading

Base and Bull scenarios

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

Scorecard

Next earnings

Sector percentile context

All TSCO indicators

Profile and market data

Valuation

Profitability

Growth

Financial statements

Financial strength

Liquidity

Dividends and buybacks

Performance and technicals

Ownership and float

Deeper analysis on TSCO

Frequently asked questions

レーティング履歴

Category	Score	Reading
Valuation	6.0
Management	8.5
Balance Sheet	3.5
Profitability	7.0
Revenue Growth	4.5
Risk Assessment	5.0
Competitive Moat	7.5
Earnings Quality	6.0
Capital Efficiency	6.5