Is The Trade Desk, Inc. overvalued?

In our latest published analysis dated 2026-05-20, TTD looks meaningfully undervalued. The price recorded at analysis is USD 21.2 versus our fair value of USD 26.9; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of USD 38.3. That implies roughly 27.0% upside to fair value at that date.

What is TTD's fair value?

Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-05-20, gives TTD a fair value of USD 26.9 and a potential value of USD 38.3. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for The Trade Desk, Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.

Should I buy TTD now?

Our latest published rating for TTD, analyzed 2026-05-20, is Buy. The Trade Desk, Inc. looks meaningfully undervalued at the analysis-date price of USD 21.2 versus fair value of USD 26.9; potential value is USD 38.3. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.

What are the biggest risks for TTD?

The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-05-20 documents The Trade Desk, Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.

What is TTD's rating?

Our latest published rating for TTD, analyzed 2026-05-20, is Buy, with a published moat assessment of 9/10 (Wide). It reflects our fair value of USD 26.9, the potential value of USD 38.3, and the price recorded at analysis (USD 21.2).

What archetype is TTD?

In the latest published report analyzed 2026-05-20, The Trade Desk, Inc. is classified as a growth infrastructure stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for TTD.

TTD stock analysis | StockMarketAgent.AI

StockMarketAgent research分析日 2026-05-20

The Trade Desk, Inc.

TTD

買い

適正価値まで27.0%の上昇余地

Report-date price

$21.16

株価の日付は未記録です

公正価値

$26.88

潜在価値

$38.28

評価レンジの上限

経済的モート

Wide9 / 10

英語版にフォールバックJA

翻訳中のため英語版を表示しています

このレポートはまだ翻訳されていません。翻訳キューが追いついたら数分後に更新してください。

§1 エグゼクティブサマリーEN

30秒でわかる要点Buy

株価と価値の比較

Price: $21.16
Fair value: $26.88
Potential value: $38.28
As of: 株価の日付は未記録です

投資仮説が成立する理由

Risk: Cyclical sensitivity and extreme high beta require careful duration management.

見方を変える要因

Primary: Strong structural growth engine, heavily discounted by backward-looking WACC models but validated by forward EPS expectations.

The Trade Desk operates as the leading independent demand-side platform (DSP). It benefits from the structural shift toward programmatic advertising and Connected TV (CTV). Despite short-term ad market cyclicality, long-term secular tailwinds and high ROIC provide a strong moat.

Leading independent DSP scale and

Leading independent DSP scale and liquidity.

First-mover advantage in Connected TV

§3 競争優位性EN

Wide

Leading independent DSP scale and liquidity.

First-mover advantage in Connected TV (CTV) ecosystem.

High switching costs for agency trading desks.

Network effects from data scale and UID2.0 identity standard.

経済的利益

Economic profit is supported when reported returns exceed the company cost-of-capital hurdle.

9/ 10

Wide

Sources of advantage

Leading independent DSP scale and liquidity.Leading independent DSP scale and liquidity.Wide
First-mover advantage in Connected TV (CTV) ecosystem.First-mover advantage in Connected TV (CTV) ecosystem.Wide
High switching costs for agency trading desks.High switching costs for agency trading desks.Wide
Network effects from data scale and UID2.0 identity standard.Network effects from data scale and UID2.0 identity standard.Wide

モートに対する既知の脅威
脅威	深刻度	時間軸	緩和策
Walled garden policy shifts and data privacy tightening.	medium	Monitor	Monitor the threat against the report checkpoints.
Emergence of competing independent SSP/DSP combinations.	medium	Monitor

§5 感応度

割引率

ターミナル成長率

	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%	4.0%
9.7%	$30.36	$32.46	$34.88	$37.68	$40.98
10.7%	$26.88	$28.52	$30.36	$32.46	$34.88
11.7%	$24.11	$25.42	$26.88	$28.52	$30.36
12.7%	$21.87	$22.93	$24.11	$25.42	$26.88
13.7%	$20.00	$20.89	$21.87	$22.93	$24.11

行：割引率（利益モデルはKe、キャッシュフローはWACC）。列：ターミナル成長率。

期間の変化（年）

Unavailable

Sensitivity reference

The highlighted base cell is anchored to valuation synthesis sensitivity reference ($26.88). It is the reference value for this grid, not a separate standalone fair-value claim.

FCFクリフ

FCFF DCF remains positive at the base case: base FCFF $367.5M after capex $144.8M, with terminal value at 49.7% of enterprise value. No FCF cliff is projected unless capex/revenue or gross margin materially resets.

§8 財務履歴

損益計算書 — 直近6期
Period	2022-12-31	2023-12-31	2024-12-31	2025-12-31	Trend
Revenue	$1.58B	$1.95B	$2.44B	$2.90B	+22.4%
Gross profit	$1.30B	$1.58B	$1.97B	$2.28B	+20.6%
Operating income	$113.7M	$200.5M	$427.2M	$589.3M	+73.1%
Net income	$53.4M	$178.9M	$393.1M	$443.3M	+102.5%
EPS (diluted)	$0.11	$0.36	$0.78	$0.90	+101.5%
EBITDA	$168.1M	$280.9M	$514.7M	$705.1M	+61.3%
R&D	$319.9M	$411.8M	$463.3M	$525.1M	+18.0%
SG&A	$863.1M	$968.2M	$1.08B	$1.16B	+10.4%

キャッシュフロー

資本配分

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

最新の売上高29億売上高CAGR +22.4%

営業利益率20.3%5会計期間

最新のフリーキャッシュフロー7.8億FY2025

ネットキャッシュ2.2億FY2025

損益計算書の内訳事業規模が報告利益にどう結び付いているか。

StockMarketAgent.AI

財務履歴データ
売上高	2,896,284,000
売上原価	619,067,000
売上総利益	2,277,217,000
営業費用	1,687,896,000
営業利益	589,321,000
営業外項目および税金	-146,017,000
純利益	443,304,000

貸借対照表の概要選択した期間における報告資産の保有構成と資金調達方法。

StockMarketAgent.AI

貸借対照表の内訳データ
総資産	6,153,220,000
現金	658,175,000
流動資産	5,261,004,000
負債合計	3,668,829,000
流動負債	3,265,997,000
株主資本	2,484,391,000

売上高と利益事業規模が報告利益にどう結び付いているか。

現金と負債総借入額に対する利用可能な流動性。

キャッシュ創出力営業キャッシュフローとフリーキャッシュフローの比較。

収益性粗利益率、営業利益率、純利益率の推移。

2026-05-20の分析で使用した時点財務データ。

財務履歴データ
期間	売上高	EBITDA	純利益	営業キャッシュフロー	フリーキャッシュフロー	設備投資	減価償却費	株式報酬	自社株買い	支払配当金	純有利子負債調達	投資キャッシュフロー	財務キャッシュフロー	期首現金	期末現金	現金および投資	総負債	営業利益率	ROIC	WACC	ROIC−WACCスプレッド
2021-12-31	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022-12-31	15.8億	1.7億	5338.5万	5.5億	4.6億	9188.5万	5442.5万	5億	0	—	0	—	—	—	—	10.3億	2.6億	7.2%	—	—	—
2023-12-31	19.5億	2.8億	1.8億	6億	5.4億	5502万	8041.8万	4.9億	6.5億	—	—	—	—	—	—	9億	2.4億	10.3%	—	—	—
2024-12-31	24.4億	5.1億	3.9億	7.4億	6.3億	1.1億	8749万	4.9億	2.3億	—	—	—	—	—	—	13.7億	3.1億	17.5%	—	—	—
2025-12-31	29億	7.1億	4.4億	9.9億	7.8億	2.1億	1.2億	4.9億	13.8億	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.6億	4.4億	20.3%	—	—	—

§9 同業他社とのバリュエーション比較

The Trade Desk, Inc.TTD

株価 / 適正価値

適正価値$26.88Report-date price$21.16

評価日2026年5月20日

経済的モートWide

投資スコアカード70 / 100

AppLovin CorporationAPP

株価 / 適正価値

適正価値$270.62Report-date price$266.13

評価日2026年10月18日

経済的モートNarrow

投資スコアカード77 / 100

NVIDIA CorporationNVDA

株価 / 適正価値

適正価値$374.88Report-date price$222.27

評価日2026年9月19日

経済的モートWide

投資スコアカード84 / 100

The Trade Desk, Inc.TTD

株価 / 適正価値

適正価値$26.88Report-date price$21.16

評価日2026年5月20日

経済的モートWide

投資スコアカード70 / 100

競合倍率と収益性
ティッカー	名前	時価総額	P/E	P/S	EV/EBITDA	ROE

TTD trades at 9.8x forward earnings against a peer median of 22.5x; EV/EBITDA of 12.6x against a peer median of 28.9x; 6 peers.

§11 ポジション管理EN

サイジング

High conviction but high beta (1.85) warrants moderate initial sizing. Algorithmic certainty sits at 75%.

リスク

Trim exposure if forward growth stalls, CTV share gains flatline, or if price pushes into the upper $38+ bull range.

エントリートランシェ
レベル	アクション	理由
Current / pullbacks	Accumulate aggressively on macro-driven cyclical pullbacks.	Accumulate aggressively on macro-driven cyclical pullbacks.

エグジットトランシェ
レベル	アクション
Thesis break	Trim exposure if forward growth stalls, CTV share gains flatline, or if price pushes into the upper $38+ bull range.

TTD	The Trade Desk Inc.	$9.9B	9.8x	3.4x	12.6x	—	—
APP	AppLovin Corporation		22.5x	26.8x	34.2x	266.4%	78.2%
OMC	Omnicom Group Inc.		5.9x	1.1x	9.2x	2.0%	11.9%
NVDA	NVIDIA Corporation		19.5x	24.9x	40.2x	101.5%	65.0%
GOOGL	Alphabet Inc.		26.8x	11.1x	28.9x	38.9%	36.1%
GOOG	Alphabet Inc. Class C		26.6x	11.0x	28.7x	38.9%	36.1%

Is The Trade Desk, Inc. overvalued?

What is TTD's fair value?

Should I buy TTD now?

What are the biggest risks for TTD?

What is TTD's rating?

What archetype is TTD?

The Trade Desk, Inc.

Names readers of TTD also follow

企業概要

Operating Profit Margin

Wide

Sources of advantage

Lenses that set Fair value

Multi-stage Moat Fade

Operating Profit Margin

Annual Revenue Growth

Gross Profit Margin

Return on Invested Capital

Operating Cash Flow Conversion Ratio

Forward Earnings

Cash flow DCF

Owner Earnings

PEG-adjusted Peer

Annual Revenue Growth

Gross Profit Margin

Return on Invested Capital

Operating Cash Flow Conversion Ratio