United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL)

NASDAQ: UAL · USD

$103

-1.37 (-1.3%)· Recorded snapshot

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StockMarketAgent Research · Analyzed 2026-10-04

Our latest published analysis: UAL rated Hold

United Airlines Holdings, Inc.'s published Hold conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.

Fair value

$112 / share

Potential value

$179 / share

Upside to FV

-0.5%

from $103

Moat

5.5/10

Narrow

Read full analysis →View archive · 24mo

9-phase methodology · same model in each published edition

Market cap	$36.5B
Revenue (ttm)	65.6B
Net income (ttm)	3.6B
EPS (ttm)	$10.9
Shares out	324.9M
P/E (trailing)	9.5x
P/E (forward)	7.4x
Volume	3,706,786
Beta	1.30

Market data

Price

Recent price action with selectable time range.

Financial snapshot

Revenue (ttm): 65.6B
Net income (ttm): 3.6B
EPS (ttm): $10.9
P/E (trailing): 9.5x
P/E (forward): 7.4x
Market cap: $36.5B

Item	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5	Trend
Period	2021-12-31	2022-12-31	2023-12-31	2024-12-31	2025-12-31	Trend
Revenue	$24.63B	$44.96B	$53.72B	$57.06B	$59.07B	+24.4%
Gross profit	$721.0M	$10.64B	$15.20B	$19.42B	$37.88B	+169.2%
Operating income	$-1.02B	$2.34B	$4.21B	$5.10B	$4.71B	—
Net income	$-1.96B	$737.0M	$2.62B	$3.15B	$3.35B	—
EPS (diluted)	$-6.10	$2.23	$7.89	$9.45	$10.20	—
EBITDA	$1.51B	$5.12B	$7.83B	$8.50B	$7.54B	+49.6%
R&D	—	—	—	—	—	—
SG&A	$677.0M	$19.63B	$1.98B	$2.23B	$2.11B	+32.9%

Ticker	Name	Market cap	P/E	P/S	ROIC	5Y rev CAGR	1Y total return	Rating
AAL	American Airlines Group Inc.	8.3B	—	0.1x	3.0%	+20.0%	-6.9%	ホールド
ALB	Albemarle Corporation	11.4B	198.9x	1.9x	4.1%	+12.8%	+1.9%	ホールド
ANET	Arista Networks Inc.	235.7B	59.1x	22.4x	284.8%	+32.0%	+19.7%	売り
ADP	Automatic Data Processing, Inc.	113B	25.3x	5.1x	62.8%	+7.7%	+4.5%	ホールド
ALLE	Allegion plc	15.2B	22.5x	3.5x	19.4%	+8.8%	+7.2%	ホールド
AME	AMETEK Inc.	56.9B	36.3x	7.2x	13.2%	+9.8%	+33.6%	売り

Base and Bull scenarios

Base55%

Price target

$111.90

-0.5% from spot

The base scenario establishes a fair value of $111.90, reflecting an implied return of -0.5% relative to $112.51 (as of 2026-10-02) with an assigned probability of 55.0%. This trajectory assumes steady corporate booking momentum, continuous fleet upgauging via incoming Airbus and Boeing deliveries, and core unit cost inflation held within guided ranges. Operating margins stabilize near mid-cycle levels, and capital reinvestment gradually moderates, enabling free cash flow conversion to progress toward management goals. Disconfirmation would occur if passenger revenue growth drops below historical expansion rates or if operating margins compress toward industry baselines by FY2027.

Consolidated revenue growth moderates to steady mid-single digits as industry capacity normalizes.
Operating margins sustain mid-cycle levels supported by premium passenger cabin upselling.
Capital reinvestment rates step down from peak fleet delivery phases toward maintenance levels.
Free cash flow conversion expands steadily toward intermediate management targets.

Bull20%

Price target

$179.36

+59.4% from spot

The bull scenario indicates a potential value of $179.36, offering an upside return of 59.4% from $112.51 (as of 2026-10-02) with an assigned probability of 20.0%. In this outcome, premium passenger mix accelerates rapidly with incoming fuel-efficient aircraft, while international route yields achieve record profitability. Core unit cost discipline outperforms expectations, lifting operating margins into low double digits and driving cash conversion toward high-end targets. Accelerated free cash flow generation facilitates substantial debt reduction, securing an investment-grade rating and compressing credit spreads. Disconfirmation would appear if aircraft delivery delays stall gauge expansion or if leisure yields deteriorate.

Premium passenger cabin capacity and business traveler yields outpace standard domestic travel growth.
Operating margins reach low double digits driven by low incremental seat-mile costs on modern aircraft.
Free cash flow conversion reaches upper management milestones, accelerating balance sheet deleveraging.

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($111.90). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.

Ke ↓ / g →	2.0%	2.3%	2.5%	2.8%	3.0%
9.3%	$123	$127	$132	$136	$142
9.8%	$114	$117	$121	$125	$129
10.3%	$106	$109	$112	$115	$119
10.8%	$99.7	$102	$104	$107	$110
11.3%	$93.9	$95.8	$97.8	$100	$102

Scorecard

Published factor rows and weighted composite

Calendar

Next earnings

Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.

Upcoming

DateLoading

Window—

EPS estimate—

Revenue estimate—

Sector percentile context

Refreshed 2026-10-28 19:55 UTC

Forward P/E7.4

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Trailing P/E10.5

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROE22.3

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROIC9.5

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Benchmarks · 1M

All UAL indicators

Market & fundamental data

Available fields

269

Groups with data

Currency

USD

Showing 269 of 269 available metrics for this ticker.

Profile and market data

Ticker identity, listing, currency, market cap, and source dates.

Metric	Value
Amount currency	USD
CIK code	0000100517
Company name	United Airlines Holdings, Inc.
Country	United States
Country code	US
CUSIP number	910047109
Earnings date	2026-10-20
Earnings time	amc
Employees	113,200
Employees change	5,900
Employees growth	5.5%
Enterprise value	$53.2B
Exchange	NASDAQ
Financial currency	USD
Financial report date	2026-09-30
First seen	2026-05-09
Fiscal year end	December
Founded	1934
In index	SP500
Industry	Airlines
Is primary listing	Yes
Is SPAC	No
ISIN number	US9100471096
Last 10-K release date	2026-02-12
Last earnings date	2026-10-20
Last refreshed	2026-10-28
Last stock split type	Never
Market cap	$33.6B
Market cap category	Large-Cap
Next earnings date	2027-01-19
Options	Yes
Price	$103.34
Price currency	USD
Sector	Industrials
SIC code	4512
Stock price date	2026-10-28
Symbol	UAL
U.S. state	Illinois
Website	https://www.united.com

Valuation

Multiples, yields, enterprise-value ratios, and valuation checks.

Metric	Value
Adjusted P/E ratio	11.72x
Average P/E ratio (10Y)	8.86x
Average P/E ratio (3Y)	8.21x
Average P/E ratio (5Y)	8.4x
Earnings yield	10.57%
EV/Earnings	14.93x
EV/EBIT	12.48x
EV/EBITDA	7.58x
EV/FCF	47.86x
EV/Sales	0.81x
FCF / EV yield	2.09%
FCF yield	3.31%
Forward EV/Sales	0.73x
Forward P/E	11.95x
Forward P/S	0.46x
Graham number	115.89426
Graham upside	11.51%
Industry forward P/E	14.21x
Industry P/E	16.91x
Lynch fair value	$84.43
Lynch upside	-18.76%
P/B ratio	1.92x
P/E ratio	9.46x
P/FCF ratio	30.26x
P/OCF ratio	4.14x
P/S ratio	0.52x
PEG ratio	0.83x
Price / tangible book value	3.19x
Price/EBITDA ratio	4.79x
Sector forward P/E	26.24x
Sector P/E	40.28x

Profitability

Margins, returns on capital, cash conversion, and quality metrics.

Metric	Value
EBIT margin	6.53%
EBITDA margin	10.74%
Effective tax rate	21.09%
FCF margin	1.7%
Gross margin	30.87%
Operating margin	6.53%
Pretax margin	6.92%
Profit margin	5.46%
Profit per employee	$31,599
Profitable quarters	10
Profitable years	4
Revenue per employee	$579,090
ROA	3.31%
ROA (5Y)	2.34%
ROCE	7.32%
ROE	22.31%
ROE (5Y)	12.3%
ROIC	9.49%
ROIC (5Y)	5.97%
Tax / revenue	1.46%

Growth

Revenue, earnings, cash-flow, and forward growth indicators.

Metric	Value
EPS growth	9.39%
EPS growth (Q)	8.28%
EPS growth (QoQ)	27.64%
EPS growth 10Y	3.39%
EPS growth 3Y	8.47%
EPS growth quarters	1
EPS growth years	5
FCF growth	-69.92%
FCF growth 3Y	-5.8%
Gross profit growth	0.81%
Gross profit growth (Q)	4.28%
Gross profit growth 3Y	4.34%
Gross profit growth 5Y	102.04%
Net income growth	8.59%
Net income growth (Q)	8.43%
Net income growth (QoQ)	27.83%
Net income growth 3Y	7.73%
Net income growth quarters	1
Net income growth years	5
OCF growth	-12.9%
OCF growth (Q)	-61.82%
OCF growth (QoQ)	-71.12%
OCF growth 10Y	3.12%
OCF growth 3Y	-3.14%
OCF growth 5Y	119.82%
Operating income growth	-19.04%
Operating income growth (Q)	-7.03%
Operating income growth 3Y	-8.74%
Revenue growth	12.31%
Revenue growth (Q)	17.41%
Revenue growth (QoQ)	1.15%
Revenue growth 10Y	6.02%
Revenue growth 3Y	7.69%
Revenue growth 5Y	26.98%
Revenue growth quarters	22
Revenue growth years	5

Financial statements

Income-statement and cash-flow amounts, totals and per share.

Metric	Value
Capital expenditures	$-7B
Depreciation and amortization	$2.8B
EBIT	$4.3B
EBITDA	$7B
EPS	$10.92
FCF per share	$3.43
Financing cash flow	$522M
Free cash flow	$1.1B
Gross profit	$20.2B
Income taxes	$956M
Investing cash flow	$-8.8B
Net borrowing	$675M
Net cash flow	$-77M
Net income	$3.6B
Operating income	$4.3B
Revenue	$65.6B

Financial strength

Debt, cash, solvency, accounting-quality, and balance-sheet signals.

Metric	Value
Altman Z-Score	1.36
Book value per share	$54.65
Debt / EBITDA	2.8
Debt / equity	1.93
Debt / FCF	30.73
Goodwill	$4.5B
Interest coverage	3.78
Long-term assets	$65.1B
Long-term liabilities	$40.7B
Net cash (debt)	$-19.6B
Net cash / market cap	-58.17%
Net debt / EBITDA	2.79
Net debt / equity	1.11
Net debt / FCF	17.6
Piotroski F-Score	6
Property, plant and equipment	$56.4B
Shareholders' equity	$17.8B
Tangible book value	$10.6B
Tangible book value per share	$32.58
Total assets	$85.1B
Total cash	$14.7B
Total debt	$34.3B
Total liabilities	$67.4B
WACC	6.98%

Liquidity

Current-asset coverage and working-capital efficiency metrics.

Metric	Value
Asset turnover	0.81
Current assets	$20B
Current liabilities	$26.6B
Current ratio	0.75
Inventory turnover	25.59
Net working capital	$-18.5B
Quick ratio	0.65
Working capital	$-6.7B
Working capital turnover	-8.36

Dividends and buybacks

Dividend yield, payout, buybacks, and shareholder-yield indicators.

Metric	Value
Buyback yield / dilution	0.92%
Dividend per share	$0.00
Dividend yield	0%
Last dividend	$2.15
Shareholder yield	0.92%

Performance and technicals

Returns, volatility, beta, momentum, RSI, and moving-average context.

Metric	Value
10Y price change	89.88%
10Y return CAGR	6.62%
10Y total return	89.88%
150-day SMA	$109.35
15Y price change	413.85%
15Y return CAGR	11.53%
15Y total return	413.85%
1D price change	-1.31%
1M price change	-9.35%
1M total return	-9.35%
1W price change	1.64%
1W total return	1.64%
1Y price change	4.59%
1Y return CAGR	4.59%
1Y total return	4.59%
20-day SMA	$103.95
200-day SMA	$108.13
20Y price change	192.73%
20Y return CAGR	5.87%
20Y total return	213.04%
3M price change	-14.29%
3M total return	-14.29%
3Y price change	204.82%
3Y return CAGR	44.98%
3Y total return	204.82%
50-day SMA	$108.01
50-day SMA vs 200-day SMA	50under200
52-week high	$138.77
52-week high date	2026-06-30
52-week low	$84.64
52-week low date	2026-03-30
5Y price change	125.52%
5Y return CAGR	17.67%
5Y total return	125.52%
6M price change	12.44%
6M total return	12.44%
All-time high	$138.77
All-time high date	2026-06-30
All-time low	$2.80
All-time low date	2008-07-15
Average true range (ATR)	$4.60
Average volume	5.2M
Beta (1Y)	1.74
Beta (2Y)	1.59
Beta (5Y)	1.3
Change from 52-week high	-25.54%
Change from 52-week low	22.09%
Change from all-time high	-25.54%
Change from all-time low	3,590.54%
Change from open	-1.5%
Day's gap	0.19%
Dollar volume	$383M
High price	$105.60
Low price	$102.75
Monthly RSI	53.63
Open price	$104.91
Position in 52-week range	20.53%
Premarket change	-0.49%
Premarket close	$104.71
Premarket price	$104.20
Premarket volume	34.2K
Previous close	$104.71
Price vs 150-day SMA	-5.5%
Price vs 20-day SMA	-0.59%
Price vs 200-day SMA	-4.44%
Price vs 50-day SMA	-4.32%
Relative volume	0.73
RSI	47.7
Sharpe ratio	0.25
Sharpe ratio (3Y)	0.88
Sharpe ratio (5Y)	0.49
Sortino ratio	0.51
Sortino ratio (3Y)	1.57
Sortino ratio (5Y)	0.87
Volume	3.7M
Weekly RSI	46.49
YTD price change	-7.59%
YTD total return	-7.59%

Ownership and float

Institutional, insider, float, short-interest, and share-count fields.

Metric	Value
Float	322.5M
Float percentage	99.26%
Shares change (QoQ)	0.24%
Shares change (YoY)	-0.92%
Shares held by insiders	0.62%
Shares held by institutions	90.16%
Shares outstanding	324.9M
Short % of float	5.2%
Short % of shares	5.17%
Short ratio	4.3 days

Other indicators

Additional ticker metrics that do not fit the primary research groupings.

Metric	Value
Page views	120

Deeper analysis on UAL

14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need

Forecast

Base and Bull forecast paths with report-date return framing.

→

Valuation

Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.

→

Sensitivity

Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.

→

Risks

Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.

→

Earnings

Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.

→

Position sizing

Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.

→

Financials

Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.

→

Peers

Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.

→

Moat

Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.

→

Industry cycle

Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.

→

Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.

Frequently asked questions

About this UAL report

What is the latest published UAL stock rating?

United Airlines Holdings, Inc. is shown with Hold in the latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-04. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the dated rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.

Where can I read the full UAL analysis?

The full latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-04, lives at /stocks/UAL/analysis. The bare ticker page summarizes that read and links to each analysis tab; earlier editions remain under /analysis/archive.

What fair value is used for UAL?

The latest published report analyzed 2026-10-04 gives UAL a fair value of USD 112 and a potential value of USD 179. These are dated research outputs, not live market prices; review the valuation assumptions, sensitivity analysis, and material risks before making a decision.

How often is the UAL page updated?

The hub selects the latest published stock report regardless of age and displays its analysis date (2026-10-04). Separately sourced market data is labeled with its own recorded timestamp and is never inferred from the report.

HoldUAL · Fair value $112-0.5%

Read full analysis →

United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL)

Our latest published analysis: UAL rated Hold

Price

Financial snapshot

Fair-value bridge

Latest news · UAL

Valuation

Profitability

Balance sheet

Trading

Base and Bull scenarios

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

Scorecard

Next earnings

Sector percentile context

All UAL indicators

Profile and market data

Valuation

Profitability

Growth

Financial statements

Financial strength

Liquidity

Dividends and buybacks

Performance and technicals

Ownership and float

Other indicators

Deeper analysis on UAL

Frequently asked questions

レーティング履歴

Category	Score	Reading
Valuation	4.5
Management	7.5
Balance Sheet	1.5
Profitability	6.0
Revenue Growth	7.5
Risk Assessment	2.5
Competitive Moat	5.5
Earnings Quality	6.0
Capital Efficiency	5.5