Ulta Beauty Inc. (ULTA)

NASDAQ: ULTA · USD

$619

-7.96 (-1.3%)· Recorded snapshot

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StockMarketAgent Research · Analyzed 2026-10-07

Our latest published analysis: ULTA rated Reduce

Ulta Beauty Inc.'s published Reduce conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.

Fair value

$486 / share

Potential value

$552 / share

Upside to FV

-10.9%

from $619

Moat

7.5/10

Narrow

Read full analysis →View archive · 24mo

9-phase methodology · same model in each published edition

Market cap	$23.3B
Revenue (ttm)	13B
Net income (ttm)	1.2B
EPS (ttm)	$27.4
Shares out	42.8M
P/E (trailing)	22.5x
P/E (forward)	19.6x
Volume	348,647
Beta	0.84

Market data

Price

Recent price action with selectable time range.

Financial snapshot

Revenue (ttm): 13B
Net income (ttm): 1.2B
EPS (ttm): $27.4
P/E (trailing): 22.5x
P/E (forward): 19.6x
Market cap: $23.3B

Item	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5	Trend
Period	2022-01-29	2023-01-28	2024-02-03	2025-02-01	2026-01-31	Trend
Revenue	$8.63B	$10.21B	$11.21B	$11.30B	$12.39B	+9.5%
Gross profit	$3.37B	$4.04B	$4.38B	$4.39B	$4.85B	+9.5%
Operating income	$1.30B	$1.64B	$1.68B	$1.56B	$1.53B	+4.3%
Net income	$985.8M	$1.24B	$1.29B	$1.20B	$1.15B	+4.0%
EPS (diluted)	$17.98	$24.01	$26.03	$25.34	$25.64	+9.3%
EBITDA	$1.57B	$1.88B	$1.94B	$1.85B	$1.83B	+4.0%
R&D	$926.0K	$1.0M	$889.0K	$306.0K	—	-30.9%
SG&A	$2.06B	$2.40B	$2.69B	$2.81B	$3.30B	+12.5%

Ticker	Name	Market cap	P/E	P/S	ROIC	5Y rev CAGR	1Y total return	Rating
AAPL	Apple Inc.	5T	39.4x	10.8x	101.6%	+6.1%	+28.5%	売り
ABNB	Airbnb, Inc.	97.8B	37.5x	7.4x	16.8%	+24.4%	+28.5%	売り
ADBE	Adobe Inc.	97.1B	13.9x	3.7x	57.2%	+11.5%	-30.7%	強い買い
AMZN	Amazon.com Inc.	2.7T	20.5x	3.5x	11.9%	+11.8%	+12.2%	売り
APTV	Aptiv PLC	9.1B	42.8x	0.4x	7.8%	+5.5%	-49.2%	買い
AZO	AutoZone Inc.	50.8B	20.7x	2.5x	26.3%	+6.8%	-17.3%	ホールド

Base and Bull scenarios

Base55%

Price target

$485.87

-10.9% from spot

Net sales compound moderately and operating margins remain stable. Store-fulfilled digital orders leverage retail fixed overhead, counterbalanced by persistent promotional activity. Substantial free cash flow generation and disciplined share repurchases support steady per-share compounding through FY2028.

Net sales growth in FY2027 fading toward long-term terminal rate
Operating margin stabilizing near current levels
Cost of capital and equity discount rate reflecting moderate market conditions
Terminal valuation multiple and perpetual growth aligning with mature specialty retail peers

Bull20%

Price target

$552.28

+1.2% from spot

Prestige beauty product innovation, category expansion into wellness routines, and store-fulfilled digital efficiencies drive accelerating comparable store sales growth and operating margin expansion, supporting robust earnings compounding alongside authorized capital return programs.

Comparable store sales growth accelerating significantly above historical averages
Operating margin expanding on store fulfillment leverage
Terminal valuation multiple expanding above historical retail averages
Annual share buybacks fully maintained without balance sheet strain

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($485.87). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.

Ke ↓ / g →	2.0%	2.3%	2.5%	2.8%	3.0%
8.2%	$520	$532	$544	$558	$573
8.7%	$493	$502	$513	$524	$536
9.2%	$470	$477	$486	$495	$505
9.7%	$449	$456	$463	$470	$479
10.2%	$431	$437	$443	$449	$456

Scorecard

Published factor rows and weighted composite

Calendar

Next earnings

Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.

Upcoming

DateLoading

Window—

EPS estimate—

Revenue estimate—

Sector percentile context

Refreshed 2026-10-28 19:55 UTC

Forward P/E19.6

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Trailing P/E19.8

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROE46.1

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROIC25.4

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Benchmarks · 1M

All ULTA indicators

Market & fundamental data

Available fields

277

Groups with data

Currency

USD

Showing 277 of 277 available metrics for this ticker.

Profile and market data

Ticker identity, listing, currency, market cap, and source dates.

Metric	Value
Amount currency	USD
CIK code	0001403568
Company name	Ulta Beauty, Inc.
Country	United States
Country code	US
CUSIP number	90384S303
Earnings date	2026-12-03
Earnings time	amc
Employees	66,820
Employees change	8,820
Employees growth	15.21%
Enterprise value	$28.8B
Exchange	NASDAQ
Financial currency	USD
Financial report date	2026-08-01
First seen	2026-05-09
Fiscal year end	January
Founded	1990
In index	SP500
Industry	Specialty Retail
IPO date	2007-10-25
Is primary listing	Yes
Is SPAC	No
ISIN number	US90384S3031
Last 10-K release date	2026-03-26
Last earnings date	2026-08-27
Last refreshed	2026-10-28
Last stock split type	Never
Market cap	$26.5B
Market cap category	Large-Cap
Next earnings date	2026-12-03
Options	Yes
Price	$618.92
Price currency	USD
Sector	Consumer Discretionary
SIC code	5990
Stock price date	2026-10-28
Symbol	ULTA
U.S. state	Illinois
Website	https://www.ulta.com

Valuation

Multiples, yields, enterprise-value ratios, and valuation checks.

Metric	Value
Adjusted P/E ratio	22.56x
Average P/E ratio (10Y)	25.98x
Average P/E ratio (3Y)	17.47x
Average P/E ratio (5Y)	18.37x
Earnings yield	4.44%
EV/Earnings	23.79x
EV/EBIT	17.84x
EV/EBITDA	14.88x
EV/FCF	25.05x
EV/Sales	2.22x
FCF / EV yield	3.99%
FCF yield	4.34%
Forward EV/Sales	2.12x
Forward P/E	20.26x
Forward P/S	1.95x
Graham number	195.3071
Graham upside	-68.47%
Industry forward P/E	18.02x
Industry P/E	20.14x
Lynch fair value	$294.04
Lynch upside	-52.52%
P/(FCF - SBC) ratio	23.83x
P/(OCF - SBC) ratio	17.31x
P/B ratio	10.15x
P/E ratio	22.55x
P/FCF ratio	23.04x
P/OCF ratio	16.89x
P/S ratio	2.04x
PEG ratio	2.09x
Price / tangible book value	11.93x
Price/EBITDA ratio	13.69x
Sector forward P/E	24.39x
Sector P/E	30.5x

Profitability

Margins, returns on capital, cash conversion, and quality metrics.

Metric	Value
EBIT margin	12.46%
EBITDA margin	14.93%
Effective tax rate	24.29%
FCF margin	8.87%
Gross margin	43.1%
Operating margin	12.46%
Pretax margin	12.34%
Profit margin	9.34%
Profit per employee	$18,109
Profitable quarters	25
Profitable years	21
Revenue per employee	$193,887
ROA	14.84%
ROA (5Y)	17.41%
ROCE	34.47%
ROE	46.12%
ROE (5Y)	56.35%
ROIC	25.42%
ROIC (5Y)	35.08%
SBC / revenue	0.29%
Tax / revenue	3%

Growth

Revenue, earnings, cash-flow, and forward growth indicators.

Metric	Value
EPS growth	5.21%
EPS growth (Q)	13.32%
EPS growth (QoQ)	-15.37%
EPS growth 10Y	17.06%
EPS growth 3Y	3.3%
EPS growth 5Y	16.2%
EPS growth quarters	2
EPS growth years	1
FCF growth	20.73%
FCF growth (Q)	96.46%
FCF growth (QoQ)	-81.12%
FCF growth 3Y	5.69%
FCF growth 5Y	1.56%
Gross profit growth	11.88%
Gross profit growth (Q)	8.73%
Gross profit growth 3Y	6.44%
Gross profit growth 5Y	11.41%
Net income growth	0.72%
Net income growth (Q)	8.1%
Net income growth (QoQ)	-17.17%
Net income growth 3Y	-1.4%
Net income growth 5Y	10.71%
Net income growth quarters	2
Net income growth years	0
OCF growth	20.95%
OCF growth (Q)	24.01%
OCF growth (QoQ)	-54.3%
OCF growth 10Y	12.81%
OCF growth 3Y	4.6%
OCF growth 5Y	5.57%
Operating income growth	2.07%
Operating income growth (Q)	10.09%
Operating income growth 3Y	-0.59%
Operating income growth 5Y	9.77%
Revenue growth	11.16%
Revenue growth (Q)	8.87%
Revenue growth (QoQ)	-4.05%
Revenue growth 10Y	11.6%
Revenue growth 3Y	6.49%
Revenue growth 5Y	11.09%
Revenue growth quarters	6
Revenue growth years	5

Financial statements

Income-statement and cash-flow amounts, totals and per share.

Metric	Value
Capital expenditures	$-418.4M
Depreciation and amortization	$320.1M
EBIT	$1.6B
EBITDA	$1.9B
EPS	$27.45
FCF per share	$26.88
Financing cash flow	$-1.1B
Free cash flow	$1.1B
Free cash flow minus SBC	$1.1B
Gross profit	$5.6B
Income taxes	$388.2M
Investing cash flow	$-505.4M
Net borrowing	$50.3M
Net cash flow	$-84.3M
Net income	$1.2B
Operating cash flow minus SBC	$1.5B
Operating income	$1.6B
Revenue	$13B
Stock-based compensation	$38.2M

Financial strength

Debt, cash, solvency, accounting-quality, and balance-sheet signals.

Metric	Value
Altman Z-Score	6.45
Book value per share	$61.76
Debt / EBITDA	1.03
Debt / equity	0.95
Debt / FCF	2.2
Goodwill	$223.1M
Interest coverage	165.07
Long-term assets	$3.9B
Long-term liabilities	$2B
Net cash (debt)	$-2.3B
Net cash / market cap	-8.73%
Net debt / EBITDA	1.19
Net debt / equity	0.87
Net debt / FCF	2.01
Piotroski F-Score	6
Property, plant and equipment	$3.3B
Shareholders' equity	$2.6B
Tangible book value	$2.2B
Tangible book value per share	$51.87
Total assets	$7B
Total cash	$213.5M
Total debt	$2.5B
Total liabilities	$4.3B
WACC	8.11%

Liquidity

Current-asset coverage and working-capital efficiency metrics.

Metric	Value
Asset turnover	1.91
Current assets	$3.1B
Current liabilities	$2.3B
Current ratio	1.35
Inventory turnover	3.06
Net working capital	$1.2B
Quick ratio	0.2
Working capital	$787.2M
Working capital turnover	15.65

Dividends and buybacks

Dividend yield, payout, buybacks, and shareholder-yield indicators.

Metric	Value
Buyback yield / dilution	4.22%
Dividend per share	$0.00
Dividend yield	0%
Last dividend	$1.00
Shareholder yield	4.22%

Performance and technicals

Returns, volatility, beta, momentum, RSI, and moving-average context.

Metric	Value
10Y price change	158.03%
10Y return CAGR	9.94%
10Y total return	158.03%
150-day SMA	$522.84
15Y price change	804.59%
15Y return CAGR	15.9%
15Y total return	814.71%
1D price change	-1.27%
1M price change	13.52%
1M total return	13.52%
1W price change	1.97%
1W total return	1.97%
1Y price change	18.38%
1Y return CAGR	18.4%
1Y total return	18.38%
20-day SMA	$586.23
200-day SMA	$553.09
3M price change	28.81%
3M total return	28.81%
3Y price change	62.93%
3Y return CAGR	17.67%
3Y total return	62.93%
50-day SMA	$559.92
50-day SMA vs 200-day SMA	50over200
52-week high	$714.97
52-week high date	2026-02-18
52-week low	$443.60
52-week low date	2026-06-30
5Y price change	67.37%
5Y return CAGR	10.85%
5Y total return	67.37%
6M price change	14.69%
6M total return	14.69%
All-time high	$714.97
All-time high date	2026-02-18
All-time low	$4.11
All-time low date	2009-03-06
Average true range (ATR)	$15.75
Average volume	438.4K
Beta (1Y)	1
Beta (2Y)	0.62
Beta (5Y)	0.84
Change from 52-week high	-13.43%
Change from 52-week low	39.52%
Change from all-time high	-13.43%
Change from all-time low	14,958.88%
Change from open	-0.14%
Day's gap	-1.13%
Dollar volume	$215.8M
High price	$621.26
Low price	$611.89
Monthly RSI	60.03
Open price	$619.77
Position in 52-week range	75.03%
Premarket change	-1.85%
Premarket close	$626.88
Premarket price	$615.30
Previous close	$626.88
Price vs 150-day SMA	18.38%
Price vs 20-day SMA	5.58%
Price vs 200-day SMA	11.9%
Price vs 50-day SMA	10.54%
Relative volume	0.8
RSI	65.13
Sharpe ratio	0.54
Sharpe ratio (3Y)	0.54
Sharpe ratio (5Y)	0.37
Sortino ratio	0.94
Sortino ratio (3Y)	0.99
Sortino ratio (5Y)	0.72
Volume	348.6K
Weekly RSI	63.07
YTD price change	2.3%
YTD total return	2.3%

Ownership and float

Institutional, insider, float, short-interest, and share-count fields.

Metric	Value
Float	42.6M
Float percentage	99.67%
Shares change (QoQ)	-2.05%
Shares change (YoY)	-4.22%
Shares held by insiders	0.14%
Shares held by institutions	101.46%
Shares outstanding	42.8M
Short % of float	5.73%
Short % of shares	5.71%
Short ratio	4.4 days

Deeper analysis on ULTA

14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need

Forecast

Base and Bull forecast paths with report-date return framing.

→

Valuation

Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.

→

Sensitivity

Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.

→

Risks

Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.

→

Earnings

Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.

→

Position sizing

Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.

→

Financials

Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.

→

Peers

Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.

→

Moat

Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.

→

Industry cycle

Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.

→

Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.

Frequently asked questions

About this ULTA report

What is the latest published ULTA stock rating?

Ulta Beauty Inc. is shown with Reduce in the latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-07. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the dated rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.

Where can I read the full ULTA analysis?

The full latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-07, lives at /stocks/ULTA/analysis. The bare ticker page summarizes that read and links to each analysis tab; earlier editions remain under /analysis/archive.

What fair value is used for ULTA?

The latest published report analyzed 2026-10-07 gives ULTA a fair value of USD 486 and a potential value of USD 552. These are dated research outputs, not live market prices; review the valuation assumptions, sensitivity analysis, and material risks before making a decision.

How often is the ULTA page updated?

The hub selects the latest published stock report regardless of age and displays its analysis date (2026-10-07). Separately sourced market data is labeled with its own recorded timestamp and is never inferred from the report.

ReduceULTA · Fair value $486-10.9%

Read full analysis →

Ulta Beauty Inc. (ULTA)

Our latest published analysis: ULTA rated Reduce

Price

Financial snapshot

Fair-value bridge

Latest news · ULTA

Valuation

Profitability

Balance sheet

Trading

Base and Bull scenarios

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

Scorecard

Next earnings

Sector percentile context

All ULTA indicators

Profile and market data

Valuation

Profitability

Growth

Financial statements

Financial strength

Liquidity

Dividends and buybacks

Performance and technicals

Ownership and float

Deeper analysis on ULTA

Frequently asked questions

レーティング履歴

Category	Score	Reading
Valuation	3.0
Management	8.5
Balance Sheet	5.0
Profitability	7.0
Revenue Growth	6.0
Risk Assessment	6.5
Competitive Moat	7.5
Earnings Quality	8.0
Capital Efficiency	7.5