Union Pacific Corporation (UNP)

NYSE: UNP · USD

$298

-2.31 (-0.8%)· Recorded snapshot

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StockMarketAgent Research · Analyzed 2026-09-25

Our latest published analysis: UNP rated Sell

Union Pacific Corporation's published Sell conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.

Fair value

$184 / share

Potential value

$226 / share

Upside to FV

-32.9%

from $298

Moat

9/10

Wide

Read full analysis →View archive · 24mo

9-phase methodology · same model in each published edition

Market cap	$163.7B
Revenue (ttm)	26.4B
Net income (ttm)	7.6B
EPS (ttm)	$12.8
Shares out	594.3M
P/E (trailing)	23.2x
P/E (forward)	19.3x
Dividend	$5.68 (1.91%)
Volume	1,960,967
Beta	0.95

Market data

Price

Recent price action with selectable time range.

Financial snapshot

Revenue (ttm): 26.4B
Net income (ttm): 7.6B
EPS (ttm): $12.8
P/E (trailing): 23.2x
P/E (forward): 19.3x
Market cap: $163.7B

Item	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5	Trend
Period	2021-12-31	2022-12-31	2023-12-31	2024-12-31	2025-12-31	Trend
Revenue	$21.80B	$24.88B	$24.12B	$24.25B	$24.51B	+3.0%
Gross profit	$10.51B	$11.21B	$10.53B	$11.04B	$14.55B	+8.5%
Operating income	$9.34B	$9.92B	$9.08B	$9.71B	$9.85B	+1.3%
Net income	$6.52B	$7.00B	$6.38B	$6.75B	$7.14B	+2.3%
EPS (diluted)	$9.95	$11.21	$10.45	$11.09	$11.98	+4.8%
EBITDA	$11.84B	$12.64B	$11.93B	$12.50B	$12.95B	+2.3%
R&D	—	—	—	—	—	—
SG&A	$5.02B	$5.54B	$5.77B	$5.82B	$13.0M	-77.4%

Ticker	Name	Market cap	P/E	P/S	ROIC	5Y rev CAGR	1Y total return	Rating
ABBV	AbbVie Inc.	505.6B	80.8x	7.9x	17.7%	+3.7%	+29.1%	売り
ABT	Abbott Laboratories	177.6B	38.2x	3.7x	7.2%	+2.7%	-17.2%	縮小
ACN	Accenture plc	144.3B	18.0x	2.0x	27.9%	+8.0%	+0.4%	ホールド
AAL	American Airlines Group Inc.	8.3B	—	0.1x	3.0%	+20.0%	-6.9%	ホールド
ADP	Automatic Data Processing, Inc.	113B	25.3x	5.1x	62.8%	+7.7%	+4.5%	ホールド
ALLE	Allegion plc	15.2B	22.5x	3.5x	19.4%	+8.8%	+7.2%	ホールド

Base and Bull scenarios

Base60%

Price target

$184.01

-32.9% from spot

The Base case represents the modal operating path where Union Pacific sustains steady revenue expansion underpinned by essential agricultural, chemical, and intermodal freight corridors. Pricing power across the western duopoly keeps operating margins stable through Precision Scheduled Railroading discipline and workforce productivity. Siding extensions and terminal projects gradually eliminate network bottlenecks, allowing capital spending to normalize toward maintenance levels and releasing discretionary free cash flow for systematic share repurchases and regular dividend increases. Under this path, the projected valuation outcome is $184.01, reflecting a probability weighting of 60.0% and an expected return of -32.9% relative to $274.07 (as of 2026-09-24).

Mid-single-digit revenue growth anchored by core freight volume demand and inflationary pricing power
Operating margins sustained near historical levels through strict fuel efficiency and workforce productivity
Capital expenditures gradually normalizing toward recurring maintenance levels over the multi-year forecast horizon
Regular annual share repurchases retiring a steady portion of diluted share count alongside growing dividend distributions

Bull20%

Price target

$226.07

-17.5% from spot

The Bull case envisions accelerated industrial reshoring and nearshoring across Mexican border gateways, delivering above-trend carload growth in automotive, metals, and intermodal corridors. Increased freight density across existing train starts generates significant operating leverage, driving operating margins toward cyclical peak levels. Strategic bottleneck relief in Houston and double-tracking along the Sunset corridor enhance train velocity and network fluidity. Accelerated capital normalization unlocks higher free cash flow, enabling expanded share repurchases and supporting a valuation outcome of $226.07, with a probability of 20.0% and an expected return of -17.5% relative to $274.07.

Accelerated carload volume growth driven by cross-border manufacturing nearshoring and highway trucking conversions
Operating margin expansion toward historical peak levels via operating leverage on latent train start capacity

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($184.01). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.

Ke ↓ / g →	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
8.1%	$190	$193	$198	$203	$209
8.6%	$184	$187	$190	$195	$200
9.1%	$178	$181	$184	$187	$192
9.6%	$174	$176	$178	$181	$185
10.1%	$169	$171	$173	$176	$179

Scorecard

Published factor rows and weighted composite

Calendar

Next earnings

Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.

Upcoming

DateLoading

Window—

EPS estimate—

Revenue estimate—

Sector percentile context

Refreshed 2026-10-28 19:55 UTC

Forward P/E19.3

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Trailing P/E22.3

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROE38.7

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROIC16.5

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Benchmarks · 1M

All UNP indicators

Market & fundamental data

Available fields

286

Groups with data

Currency

USD

Showing 286 of 286 available metrics for this ticker.

Profile and market data

Ticker identity, listing, currency, market cap, and source dates.

Metric	Value
Amount currency	USD
CIK code	0000100885
Company name	Union Pacific Corporation
Country	United States
Country code	US
CUSIP number	907818108
Earnings date	2026-10-22
Earnings time	bmo
Employees	28,716
Employees change	-1,213
Employees growth	-4.05%
Enterprise value	$204.9B
Exchange	NYSE
Financial currency	USD
Financial report date	2026-09-30
First seen	2026-05-09
Fiscal year end	December
Founded	1862
In index	SP500
Industry	Railroads
Is primary listing	Yes
Is SPAC	No
ISIN number	US9078181081
Last 10-K release date	2026-02-06
Last earnings date	2026-10-22
Last refreshed	2026-10-28
Last stock split date	2014-06-09
Last stock split type	Forward
Market cap	$176.8B
Market cap category	Large-Cap
Next earnings date	2027-01-26
Options	Yes
Price	$297.56
Price currency	USD
Sector	Industrials
SIC code	4011
Stock price date	2026-10-28
Symbol	UNP
U.S. state	Nebraska
Website	https://www.up.com

Valuation

Multiples, yields, enterprise-value ratios, and valuation checks.

Metric	Value
Adjusted P/E ratio	23.37x
Average P/E ratio (10Y)	19.84x
Average P/E ratio (3Y)	21.21x
Average P/E ratio (5Y)	20.8x
Earnings yield	4.31%
EV/Earnings	27.07x
EV/EBIT	19.19x
EV/EBITDA	15.53x
EV/FCF	30.8x
EV/Sales	7.82x
FCF / EV yield	3.25%
FCF yield	3.76%
Forward EV/Sales	7.18x
Forward P/E	21.19x
Forward P/S	6.21x
Graham number	103.38582
Graham upside	-65.52%
Industry forward P/E	22.29x
Industry P/E	25.65x
Lynch fair value	$64.10
Lynch upside	-78.62%
P/B ratio	8.09x
P/E ratio	23.21x
P/FCF ratio	26.62x
P/OCF ratio	16.92x
P/S ratio	6.76x
PEG ratio	2.54x
Price / tangible book value	8.36x
Price/EBITDA ratio	13.41x
Sector forward P/E	26.24x
Sector P/E	40.28x

Profitability

Margins, returns on capital, cash conversion, and quality metrics.

Metric	Value
EBIT margin	40.75%
EBITDA margin	50.38%
Effective tax rate	23.19%
FCF margin	25.39%
Gross margin	55.77%
Operating margin	40.75%
Pretax margin	37.62%
Profit margin	28.9%
Profit per employee	$265,288
Profitable quarters	111
Profitable years	27
Revenue per employee	$918,060
ROA	9.51%
ROA (5Y)	9.15%
ROCE	16.03%
ROE	38.75%
ROE (5Y)	45.08%
ROIC	16.54%
ROIC (5Y)	15.97%
Tax / revenue	8.72%

Growth

Revenue, earnings, cash-flow, and forward growth indicators.

Metric	Value
EPS growth	8.83%
EPS growth (Q)	15.95%
EPS growth (QoQ)	3.91%
EPS growth 10Y	9.9%
EPS growth 3Y	7.16%
EPS growth 5Y	6.55%
EPS growth quarters	12
EPS growth years	2
FCF growth	11.33%
FCF growth (Q)	12.09%
FCF growth (QoQ)	-20.02%
FCF growth 3Y	12.01%
FCF growth 5Y	0.68%
Gross profit growth	6.37%
Gross profit growth (Q)	11.2%
Gross profit growth 3Y	4.64%
Gross profit growth 5Y	3.25%
Net income growth	8.03%
Net income growth (Q)	16.11%
Net income growth (QoQ)	4.16%
Net income growth 3Y	6.17%
Net income growth 5Y	4.23%
Net income growth quarters	6
Net income growth years	2
OCF growth	8.23%
OCF growth (Q)	10.47%
OCF growth (QoQ)	-9.43%
OCF growth 10Y	3.89%
OCF growth 3Y	8.35%
OCF growth 5Y	3.07%
Operating income growth	6.74%
Operating income growth (Q)	14.29%
Operating income growth 3Y	5.5%
Operating income growth 5Y	3.76%
Revenue growth	7.4%
Revenue growth (Q)	15.26%
Revenue growth (QoQ)	4.85%
Revenue growth 10Y	2.81%
Revenue growth 3Y	2.98%
Revenue growth 5Y	4.44%
Revenue growth quarters	3
Revenue growth years	2

Financial statements

Income-statement and cash-flow amounts, totals and per share.

Metric	Value
Capital expenditures	$-3.8B
Depreciation and amortization	$2.5B
EBIT	$10.7B
EBITDA	$13.3B
EPS	$12.82
FCF per share	$11.26
Financing cash flow	$-4.7B
Free cash flow	$6.7B
Gross profit	$14.7B
Income taxes	$2.3B
Investing cash flow	$-4.4B
Net borrowing	$-1.5B
Net cash flow	$1.4B
Net income	$7.6B
Operating income	$10.7B
Revenue	$26.4B

Financial strength

Debt, cash, solvency, accounting-quality, and balance-sheet signals.

Metric	Value
Altman Z-Score	4.08
Book value per share	$37.05
Debt / EBITDA	2.29
Debt / equity	1.41
Debt / FCF	4.65
Interest coverage	8.46
Long-term assets	$66.1B
Long-term liabilities	$45B
Net cash (debt)	$-28B
Net cash / market cap	-15.73%
Net debt / EBITDA	2.11
Net debt / equity	1.27
Net debt / FCF	4.19
Piotroski F-Score	7
Property, plant and equipment	$60.7B
Shareholders' equity	$22B
Tangible book value	$21.3B
Tangible book value per share	$35.85
Total assets	$72.6B
Total cash	$3.1B
Total debt	$31.1B
Total liabilities	$50.6B
WACC	8.55%

Liquidity

Current-asset coverage and working-capital efficiency metrics.

Metric	Value
Asset turnover	0.37
Current assets	$6.5B
Current liabilities	$5.6B
Current ratio	1.16
Inventory turnover	13.2
Net working capital	$-660M
Quick ratio	0.93
Working capital	$912M
Working capital turnover	-130.51

Dividends and buybacks

Dividend yield, payout, buybacks, and shareholder-yield indicators.

Metric	Value
Buyback yield / dilution	0.83%
Dividend growth	2.96%
Dividend growth (10Y)	9.71%
Dividend growth (3Y)	2.26%
Dividend growth (5Y)	6.39%
Dividend growth years	19
Dividend payment date	2026-09-30
Dividend payment years	56
Dividend payout frequency	Quarterly
Dividend per share	$5.68
Dividend yield	1.91%
Ex-dividend date	2026-08-31
FCF payout ratio	50.42%
Last dividend	$1.42
Payout ratio	44.3%
Shareholder yield	2.73%

Performance and technicals

Returns, volatility, beta, momentum, RSI, and moving-average context.

Metric	Value
10Y price change	234.69%
10Y return CAGR	15.35%
10Y total return	316.89%
150-day SMA	$277.07
15Y price change	479.3%
15Y return CAGR	14.91%
15Y total return	703.74%
1D price change	-0.77%
1M price change	8.58%
1M total return	8.58%
1W price change	3.36%
1W total return	3.36%
1Y price change	36.22%
1Y return CAGR	39.12%
1Y total return	39.09%
20-day SMA	$285.56
200-day SMA	$269.63
20Y price change	1,208.7%
20Y return CAGR	16.09%
20Y total return	1,875.95%
3M price change	-0.68%
3M total return	-0.22%
3Y price change	47.37%
3Y return CAGR	16.33%
3Y total return	57.44%
50-day SMA	$287.46
50-day SMA vs 200-day SMA	50over200
52-week high	$315.99
52-week high date	2026-07-23
52-week low	$215.53
52-week low date	2025-10-29
5Y price change	24.18%
5Y return CAGR	6.81%
5Y total return	39%
6M price change	10.55%
6M total return	11.64%
All-time high	$315.99
All-time high date	2026-07-23
All-time low	$0.93
All-time low date	1970-07-07
Average true range (ATR)	$5.70
Average volume	2.3M
Beta (1Y)	-0.1
Beta (2Y)	0.48
Beta (5Y)	0.95
Change from 52-week high	-5.83%
Change from 52-week low	38.06%
Change from all-time high	-5.92%
Change from all-time low	31,741.26%
Change from open	-0.34%
Day's gap	-0.44%
Dollar volume	$583.5M
High price	$302.25
Low price	$297.20
Monthly RSI	61.66
Open price	$298.57
Position in 52-week range	7.13%
Premarket change	0.04%
Premarket close	$299.88
Premarket price	$300.00
Premarket volume	340
Previous close	$299.88
Price vs 150-day SMA	7.29%
Price vs 20-day SMA	4.1%
Price vs 200-day SMA	10.25%
Price vs 50-day SMA	3.41%
Relative volume	0.86
RSI	63.69
Sharpe ratio	1.4
Sharpe ratio (3Y)	0.58
Sharpe ratio (5Y)	0.27
Sortino ratio	2.54
Sortino ratio (3Y)	1.17
Sortino ratio (5Y)	0.67
Volume	2M
Weekly RSI	60.66
YTD price change	28.51%
YTD total return	30.46%

Ownership and float

Institutional, insider, float, short-interest, and share-count fields.

Metric	Value
Float	592.9M
Float percentage	99.77%
Shares change (QoQ)	0.08%
Shares change (YoY)	-0.83%
Shares held by insiders	0.11%
Shares held by institutions	90.52%
Shares outstanding	594.3M
Short % of float	4.68%
Short % of shares	4.67%
Short ratio	11.1 days

Other indicators

Additional ticker metrics that do not fit the primary research groupings.

Metric	Value
Page views	124

Deeper analysis on UNP

14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need

Forecast

Base and Bull forecast paths with report-date return framing.

→

Valuation

Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.

→

Sensitivity

Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.

→

Risks

Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.

→

Earnings

Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.

→

Position sizing

Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.

→

Financials

Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.

→

Peers

Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.

→

Moat

Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.

→

Industry cycle

Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.

→

Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.

Frequently asked questions

About this UNP report

What is the latest published UNP stock rating?

Union Pacific Corporation is shown with Sell in the latest published report, analyzed 2026-09-25. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the dated rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.

Where can I read the full UNP analysis?

The full latest published report, analyzed 2026-09-25, lives at /stocks/UNP/analysis. The bare ticker page summarizes that read and links to each analysis tab; earlier editions remain under /analysis/archive.

What fair value is used for UNP?

The latest published report analyzed 2026-09-25 gives UNP a fair value of USD 184 and a potential value of USD 226. These are dated research outputs, not live market prices; review the valuation assumptions, sensitivity analysis, and material risks before making a decision.

How often is the UNP page updated?

The hub selects the latest published stock report regardless of age and displays its analysis date (2026-09-25). Separately sourced market data is labeled with its own recorded timestamp and is never inferred from the report.

SellUNP · Fair value $184-32.9%

Read full analysis →

Union Pacific Corporation (UNP)

Our latest published analysis: UNP rated Sell

Price

Financial snapshot

Fair-value bridge

Latest news · UNP

Valuation

Profitability

Balance sheet

Trading

Base and Bull scenarios

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

Scorecard

Next earnings

Sector percentile context

All UNP indicators

Profile and market data

Valuation

Profitability

Growth

Financial statements

Financial strength

Liquidity

Dividends and buybacks

Performance and technicals

Ownership and float

Other indicators

Deeper analysis on UNP

Frequently asked questions

レーティング履歴

Category	Score	Reading
Valuation	1.5
Management	9.5
Balance Sheet	1.5
Profitability	8.5
Revenue Growth	6.0
Risk Assessment	4.5
Competitive Moat	9.0
Earnings Quality	8.0
Capital Efficiency	7.5