Vistra Corp. (VST)

NYSE: VST · USD

$143

-4.00 (-2.7%)· Recorded snapshot

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StockMarketAgent Research · Analyzed 2026-10-04

Our latest published analysis: VST rated Sell

Vistra Corp.'s published Sell conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.

Fair value

$97.9 / share

Potential value

$145 / share

Upside to FV

-30.1%

from $143

Moat

6.5/10

Narrow

Read full analysis →View archive · 24mo

9-phase methodology · same model in each published edition

Market cap	$47.0B
Revenue (ttm)	19.2B
Net income (ttm)	2B
EPS (ttm)	$5.87
Shares out	335.6M
P/E (trailing)	24.3x
P/E (forward)	13.3x
Dividend	$0.92 (0.64%)
Volume	4,120,661
Beta	1.38

Market data

Price

Recent price action with selectable time range.

Financial snapshot

Revenue (ttm): 19.2B
Net income (ttm): 2B
EPS (ttm): $5.87
P/E (trailing): 24.3x
P/E (forward): 13.3x
Market cap: $47.0B

Item	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5	Trend
Period	2021-12-31	2022-12-31	2023-12-31	2024-12-31	2025-12-31	Trend
Revenue	$17.70B	$15.63B	$13.80B	$14.76B	$17.59B	-0.2%
Gross profit	$60.0M	$3.81B	$5.17B	$7.69B	$2.97B	+165.3%
Operating income	$-1.52B	$-1.18B	$2.66B	$4.08B	$1.91B	—
Net income	$-1.27B	$-1.23B	$1.49B	$2.66B	$944.0M	—
EPS (diluted)	$-2.69	$-3.26	$3.58	$7.00	$2.18	—
EBITDA	$852.0M	$1.29B	$4.62B	$7.19B	$5.25B	+57.6%
R&D	—	—	—	—	—	—
SG&A	$1.04B	$1.19B	$1.31B	$1.60B	$1.71B	+13.3%

Ticker	Name	Market cap	P/E	P/S	ROIC	5Y rev CAGR	1Y total return	Rating
AAPL	Apple Inc.	5T	39.4x	10.8x	101.6%	+6.1%	+28.5%	売り
ABNB	Airbnb, Inc.	97.8B	37.5x	7.4x	16.8%	+24.4%	+28.5%	売り
ADBE	Adobe Inc.	97.1B	13.9x	3.7x	57.2%	+11.5%	-30.7%	強い買い
AEE	Ameren Corporation	29.9B	19.1x	3.6x	4.4%	+8.0%	+6.0%	ホールド
AEP	American Electric Power Company Inc.	69.8B	20.9x	3.0x	4.3%	+7.6%	+13.5%	ホールド
CEG	Constellation Energy Corporation	91.4B	25.0x	2.9x	7.4%	+10.8%	-33.6%	売り

Base and Bull scenarios

Base55%

Price target

$97.88

-30.1% from spot

The modal base path reflects reaffirmed management guidance for 2026 Adjusted EBITDA ($6.8B-$7.6B) and 2027 Adjusted EBITDA ($7.4B-$7.8B),. Integrated retail revenue matches physical generation output, delivering 18.30% initial operating margins that gradually normalize toward 16.16% by FY2030 as regional supply expands. Ongoing share repurchases exhaust the remaining ~$1.2B authorization by 2027, driving modest per-share accretion.

Reaffirmed 2026 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA delivers within $6.8B-$7.6B
2027 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA achieves $7.4B-$7.8B midpoint opportunity
Operating margin fades from 18.30% in FY2026 to 16.16% in FY2030
Terminal growth rate of 2.50% and WACC of 8.61%

Bull20%

Price target

$144.83

+3.4% from spot

In the bull scenario, accelerated AI data center energization, sustained tight PJM capacity auction clears, and commercial bilateral contracts drive margins above base projections. Unmodeled earnings contributions from the pending Cogentrix acquisition and Meta PPAs provide operational upside beyond the $7.4B-$7.8B 2027 Adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity,. Incumbent generation assets capture elevated scarcity rents as equipment inflation and interconnection delays restrict competing greenfield supply,.

ERCOT load growth reaches or exceeds 6% annually through 2030
2027 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA clears above $7.8B with unmodeled contributions from Cogentrix and Meta PPAs,
Terminal P/E multiple expands reflecting clean baseload scarcity premiums

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($97.88). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.

Ke ↓ / g →	2.0%	2.3%	2.5%	2.8%	3.0%
7.6%	$108	$111	$114	$118	$122
8.1%	$100	$103	$105	$108	$112
8.6%	$93.4	$95.6	$97.9	$100	$103
9.1%	$87.6	$89.4	$91.4	$93.5	$95.7
9.6%	$82.4	$84.0	$85.7	$87.4	$89.3

Scorecard

Published factor rows and weighted composite

Calendar

Next earnings

Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.

Upcoming

DateLoading

Window—

EPS estimate—

Revenue estimate—

Sector percentile context

Refreshed 2026-10-28 19:55 UTC

Forward P/E13.3

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Trailing P/E23.6

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROE43

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROIC9.7

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Benchmarks · 1M

All VST indicators

Market & fundamental data

Available fields

269

Groups with data

Currency

USD

Showing 269 of 269 available metrics for this ticker.

Profile and market data

Ticker identity, listing, currency, market cap, and source dates.

Metric	Value
Amount currency	USD
CIK code	0001692819
Company name	Vistra Corp.
Country	United States
Country code	US
CUSIP number	92840M102
Earnings date	2026-11-06
Earnings time	bmo
Employees	6,390
Employees change	-460
Employees growth	-6.72%
Enterprise value	$68B
Exchange	NYSE
Financial currency	USD
Financial report date	2026-06-30
First seen	2026-05-09
Fiscal year end	December
Founded	1882
In index	SP500
Industry	Utilities - Independent Power Producers
Is primary listing	Yes
Is SPAC	No
ISIN number	US92840M1027
Last 10-K release date	2026-02-27
Last earnings date	2026-08-07
Last refreshed	2026-10-28
Last stock split type	Never
Market cap	$47.9B
Market cap category	Large-Cap
Next earnings date	2026-11-06
Options	Yes
Price	$142.65
Price currency	USD
Sector	Utilities
SIC code	4911
Stock price date	2026-10-28
Symbol	VST
U.S. state	Texas
Website	https://vistracorp.com

Valuation

Multiples, yields, enterprise-value ratios, and valuation checks.

Metric	Value
Adjusted P/E ratio	21.07x
Average P/E ratio (10Y)	24.55x
Average P/E ratio (3Y)	33.73x
Average P/E ratio (5Y)	31.15x
Earnings yield	4.11%
EV/Earnings	33.63x
EV/EBIT	17.93x
EV/EBITDA	10.26x
EV/FCF	30.23x
EV/Sales	3.55x
FCF / EV yield	3.31%
FCF yield	4.69%
Forward EV/Sales	2.71x
Forward P/E	14.07x
Forward P/S	1.91x
Graham number	34.36531
Graham upside	-76.01%
Industry forward P/E	17.3x
Industry P/E	31.9x
Lynch fair value	$69.60
Lynch upside	-51.42%
P/(FCF - SBC) ratio	22.67x
P/(OCF - SBC) ratio	9.64x
P/B ratio	16.39x
P/E ratio	24.32x
P/FCF ratio	21.33x
P/OCF ratio	9.39x
P/S ratio	2.5x
PEG ratio	0.43x
Price/EBITDA ratio	7.24x
Sector forward P/E	16.94x
Sector P/E	19.65x

Profitability

Margins, returns on capital, cash conversion, and quality metrics.

Metric	Value
EBIT margin	19.79%
EBITDA margin	34.59%
Effective tax rate	20.83%
FCF margin	11.74%
Gross margin	38.31%
Operating margin	19.79%
Pretax margin	14.59%
Profit margin	11.55%
Profit per employee	$317,214
Profitable quarters	5
Profitable years	3
Revenue per employee	$3M
ROA	5.89%
ROA (5Y)	2.1%
ROCE	11.86%
ROE	42.96%
ROE (5Y)	12.97%
ROIC	9.72%
SBC / revenue	0.7%
Tax / revenue	3.04%

Growth

Revenue, earnings, cash-flow, and forward growth indicators.

Metric	Value
EPS growth	-7.95%
EPS growth (Q)	-6.17%
EPS growth (QoQ)	-73.52%
EPS growth 3Y	16.76%
EPS growth years	0
FCF growth	36.42%
FCF growth (QoQ)	5.7%
FCF growth 3Y	-4.71%
Net income growth	-7.08%
Net income growth (Q)	-6.73%
Net income growth (QoQ)	-73.67%
Net income growth 3Y	11.87%
Net income growth years	0
OCF growth	21.18%
OCF growth (Q)	78.85%
OCF growth (QoQ)	-14.68%
OCF growth 10Y	64.17%
OCF growth 3Y	6.66%
OCF growth 5Y	39.45%
Revenue growth	3.8%
Revenue growth (Q)	-5.48%
Revenue growth (QoQ)	-28.78%
Revenue growth 10Y	14.12%
Revenue growth 3Y	4.93%
Revenue growth 5Y	10.15%
Revenue growth years	5

Financial statements

Income-statement and cash-flow amounts, totals and per share.

Metric	Value
Capital expenditures	$-2.9B
Depreciation and amortization	$1.9B
EBIT	$3.8B
EBITDA	$6.6B
EPS	$5.87
FCF per share	$6.72
Financing cash flow	$-1.1B
Free cash flow	$2.3B
Free cash flow minus SBC	$2.1B
Gross profit	$7.4B
Income taxes	$584M
Investing cash flow	$-4B
Net borrowing	$1.3B
Net cash flow	$-14M
Net income	$2B
Operating cash flow minus SBC	$5B
Operating income	$3.8B
Revenue	$19.2B
Stock-based compensation	$134M

Financial strength

Debt, cash, solvency, accounting-quality, and balance-sheet signals.

Metric	Value
Book value per share	$8.95
Debt / EBITDA	3.09
Debt / equity	3.73
Debt / FCF	9.09
Goodwill	$2.8B
Interest coverage	3.81
Long-term assets	$32.3B
Long-term liabilities	$26.6B
Net cash (debt)	$-20.1B
Net cash / market cap	-41.74%
Net debt / EBITDA	3.02
Net debt / equity	3.65
Net debt / FCF	8.9
Piotroski F-Score	5
Property, plant and equipment	$18.5B
Shareholders' equity	$5.5B
Tangible book value	$-2.1B
Tangible book value per share	$-6.22
Total assets	$42.6B
Total cash	$435M
Total debt	$20.5B
Total liabilities	$37.1B
WACC	9.47%

Liquidity

Current-asset coverage and working-capital efficiency metrics.

Metric	Value
Asset turnover	0.48
Current assets	$10.3B
Current liabilities	$10.6B
Current ratio	0.97
Inventory turnover	11.82
Net working capital	$2.1B
Quick ratio	0.26
Working capital	$-281M
Working capital turnover	-31.21

Dividends and buybacks

Dividend yield, payout, buybacks, and shareholder-yield indicators.

Metric	Value
Buyback yield / dilution	-0.45%
Dividend growth	2.01%
Dividend growth (3Y)	4.52%
Dividend growth (5Y)	9.33%
Dividend growth years	6
Dividend payment date	2026-09-30
Dividend payment years	8
Dividend payout frequency	Quarterly
Dividend per share	$0.92
Dividend yield	0.64%
Ex-dividend date	2026-09-21
FCF payout ratio	13.6%
Last dividend	$0.23
Payout ratio	15.58%
Shareholder yield	0.2%

Performance and technicals

Returns, volatility, beta, momentum, RSI, and moving-average context.

Metric	Value
10Y price change	842.83%
10Y return CAGR	29.15%
10Y total return	1,191.03%
150-day SMA	$151.05
1D price change	-2.73%
1M price change	3.5%
1M total return	3.5%
1W price change	-4.66%
1W total return	-4.66%
1Y price change	-28.09%
1Y return CAGR	-27.69%
1Y total return	-27.68%
20-day SMA	$150.84
200-day SMA	$153.91
3M price change	-8.77%
3M total return	-8.62%
3Y price change	347.56%
3Y return CAGR	66.19%
3Y total return	359.14%
50-day SMA	$145.13
50-day SMA vs 200-day SMA	50under200
52-week high	$200.73
52-week high date	2025-10-29
52-week low	$132.66
52-week low date	2026-05-19
5Y price change	628.94%
5Y return CAGR	51.36%
5Y total return	694.27%
6M price change	-13.97%
6M total return	-13.71%
After-hours change	0.25%
After-hours close	$142.65
After-hours price	$143.00
All-time high	$219.82
All-time high date	2025-09-22
All-time low	$0.01
All-time low date	2017-03-31
Average true range (ATR)	$7.39
Average volume	7.6M
Beta (1Y)	0.56
Beta (2Y)	1.57
Beta (5Y)	1.38
Change from 52-week high	-28.93%
Change from 52-week low	7.53%
Change from all-time high	-34.81%
Change from all-time low	1,747,582.93%
Change from open	-3.28%
Day's gap	0.57%
Dollar volume	$587.8M
High price	$147.55
Low price	$142.31
Monthly RSI	50.71
Open price	$147.49
Position in 52-week range	6.49%
Premarket change	1.47%
Premarket close	$146.66
Premarket price	$148.81
Premarket volume	59.7K
Previous close	$146.66
Price vs 150-day SMA	-5.12%
Price vs 20-day SMA	-4.99%
Price vs 200-day SMA	-6.89%
Price vs 50-day SMA	-1.26%
Relative volume	0.55
RSI	45.93
Sharpe ratio	-0.47
Sharpe ratio (3Y)	1.11
Sharpe ratio (5Y)	1.02
Sortino ratio	-0.53
Sortino ratio (3Y)	1.69
Sortino ratio (5Y)	1.61
Volume	4.1M
Weekly RSI	46.54
YTD price change	-11.17%
YTD total return	-10.78%

Ownership and float

Institutional, insider, float, short-interest, and share-count fields.

Metric	Value
Float	313M
Float percentage	93.25%
Shares change (QoQ)	-0.77%
Shares change (YoY)	0.45%
Shares held by insiders	1.07%
Shares held by institutions	85.81%
Shares outstanding	335.6M
Short % of float	3.35%
Short % of shares	3.12%
Short ratio	2.2 days

Other indicators

Additional ticker metrics that do not fit the primary research groupings.

Metric	Value
Page views	739

Deeper analysis on VST

14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need

Forecast

Base and Bull forecast paths with report-date return framing.

→

Valuation

Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.

→

Sensitivity

Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.

→

Risks

Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.

→

Earnings

Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.

→

Position sizing

Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.

→

Financials

Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.

→

Peers

Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.

→

Moat

Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.

→

Industry cycle

Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.

→

Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.

Frequently asked questions

About this VST report

What is the latest published VST stock rating?

Vistra Corp. is shown with Sell in the latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-04. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the dated rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.

Where can I read the full VST analysis?

The full latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-04, lives at /stocks/VST/analysis. The bare ticker page summarizes that read and links to each analysis tab; earlier editions remain under /analysis/archive.

What fair value is used for VST?

The latest published report analyzed 2026-10-04 gives VST a fair value of USD 98 and a potential value of USD 145. These are dated research outputs, not live market prices; review the valuation assumptions, sensitivity analysis, and material risks before making a decision.

How often is the VST page updated?

The hub selects the latest published stock report regardless of age and displays its analysis date (2026-10-04). Separately sourced market data is labeled with its own recorded timestamp and is never inferred from the report.

SellVST · Fair value $97.9-30.1%

Read full analysis →

Vistra Corp. (VST)

Our latest published analysis: VST rated Sell

Price

Financial snapshot

Fair-value bridge

Latest news · VST

Valuation

Profitability

Balance sheet

Trading

Base and Bull scenarios

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

Scorecard

Next earnings

Sector percentile context

All VST indicators

Profile and market data

Valuation

Profitability

Growth

Financial statements

Financial strength

Liquidity

Dividends and buybacks

Performance and technicals

Ownership and float

Other indicators

Deeper analysis on VST

Frequently asked questions

レーティング履歴

Category	Score	Reading
Valuation	1.5
Management	9.5
Balance Sheet	1.5
Profitability	7.5
Revenue Growth	2.5
Risk Assessment	2.5
Competitive Moat	6.5
Earnings Quality	7.5
Capital Efficiency	3.5