Waste Management, Inc. (WM)

NYSE: WM · USD

$225

-10.80 (-4.6%)· Recorded snapshot

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StockMarketAgent Research · Analyzed 2026-09-27

Our latest published analysis: WM rated Sell

Waste Management, Inc.'s published Sell conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.

Fair value

$152 / share

Potential value

$176 / share

Upside to FV

-26.3%

from $225

Moat

9/10

Wide

Read full analysis →View archive · 24mo

9-phase methodology · same model in each published edition

Market cap	$82.7B
Revenue (ttm)	26.1B
Net income (ttm)	3.1B
EPS (ttm)	$7.62
Shares out	399.7M
P/E (trailing)	29.5x
P/E (forward)	22.5x
Dividend	$3.78 (1.68%)
Volume	3,059,962
Beta	0.43

Market data

Price

Recent price action with selectable time range.

Financial snapshot

Revenue (ttm): 26.1B
Net income (ttm): 3.1B
EPS (ttm): $7.62
P/E (trailing): 29.5x
P/E (forward): 22.5x
Market cap: $82.7B

Item	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5	Trend
Period	2021-12-31	2022-12-31	2023-12-31	2024-12-31	2025-12-31	Trend
Revenue	$17.93B	$19.70B	$20.43B	$22.06B	$25.20B	+8.9%
Gross profit	$4.82B	$5.37B	$5.75B	$6.41B	$7.33B	+11.0%
Operating income	$2.97B	$3.37B	$3.58B	$4.06B	$4.31B	+9.8%
Net income	$1.82B	$2.24B	$2.30B	$2.75B	$2.71B	+10.5%
EPS (diluted)	$4.29	$5.39	$5.66	$6.81	$6.70	+11.8%
EBITDA	$4.82B	$5.45B	$5.72B	$6.46B	$7.20B	+10.5%
R&D	—	—	—	—	—	—
SG&A	$1.86B	$1.94B	$1.93B	$2.26B	$2.72B	+9.9%

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ADBE	Adobe Inc.	97.1B	13.9x	3.7x	57.2%	+11.5%	-30.7%	強い買い
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ADP	Automatic Data Processing, Inc.	113B	25.3x	5.1x	62.8%	+7.7%	+4.5%	ホールド
ALLE	Allegion plc	15.2B	22.5x	3.5x	19.4%	+8.8%	+7.2%	ホールド

Base and Bull scenarios

Base60%

Price target

$152.44

-26.3% from spot

The base scenario projects steady earnings expansion supported by landfill pricing power and disciplined cost execution, yielding an expected target of $152.44 with a probability of 60.0% and an expected return of -26.3% relative to $206.83. For this path to hold, Collection and Disposal yields must continue to offset mild commercial volume softness, while post-acquisition synergies materialize on schedule. This trajectory would be disconfirmed if core operating margins compress across two consecutive fiscal quarters or if integration overhead remains elevated through FY2026, signaling that route density and pricing power are failing to overcome inflation.

Core Collection and Disposal pricing yield steadily outpaces underlying operating cost inflation.
Healthcare Solutions SG&A expense ratio rationalizes toward guided operating targets over the medium term.
Capital expenditures moderate from peak investment levels as renewable gas facilities connect into utility networks.

Bull15%

Price target

$176.35

-14.7% from spot

The bull scenario envisions accelerated operating margin expansion and rapid free cash flow conversion, leading to Potential value $176.35 and a target of $176.35 with a probability of 15.0% and a return of -14.7% compared to $206.83. This outcome requires swift completion of pipeline interconnections, rapid realization of overhead synergies across Healthcare Solutions, and robust recovery in commercial waste volumes. The scenario would be disconfirmed by the end of FY2026 if sustainability volumes remain impaired or if organic volume growth turns negative.

Renewable natural gas plants commission ahead of schedule with elevated commodity prices.
Healthcare Solutions cross-selling and administrative overhead reductions accelerate significantly.
Automated recycling facilities drive substantial labor efficiencies and higher material recovery margins.

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($152.44). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.

Ke ↓ / g →	2.0%	2.3%	2.5%	2.8%	3.0%
6.6%	$154	$154	$154	$154	$154
7.1%	$153	$153	$153	$153	$153
7.6%	$152	$152	$152	$152	$152
8.1%	$152	$152	$152	$152	$152
8.6%	$151	$151	$151	$151	$151

Scorecard

Published factor rows and weighted composite

Calendar

Next earnings

Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.

Upcoming

DateLoading

Window—

EPS estimate—

Revenue estimate—

Sector percentile context

Refreshed 2026-10-28 19:55 UTC

Forward P/E22.5

P25 13.2P50 18.7P75 25.2

Trailing P/E29.3

P25 16.3P50 24.9P75 35.2

ROE31.7

P25 -18.2P50 6.2P75 16.4

ROIC11.8

P25 -10.4P50 5.2P75 12.3

Benchmarks · 1M

All WM indicators

Market & fundamental data

Available fields

290

Groups with data

Currency

USD

Showing 290 of 290 available metrics for this ticker.

Profile and market data

Ticker identity, listing, currency, market cap, and source dates.

Metric	Value
Amount currency	USD
CIK code	0000823768
Company name	Waste Management, Inc.
Country	United States
Country code	US
CUSIP number	94106L109
Earnings date	2026-10-27
Earnings time	amc
Employees	60,500
Employees change	-1,200
Employees growth	-1.94%
Enterprise value	$113.1B
Exchange	NYSE
Financial currency	USD
Financial report date	2026-09-30
First seen	2026-05-09
Fiscal year end	December
Founded	1968
In index	SP500
Industry	Waste Management
IPO date	1988-06-02
Is primary listing	Yes
Is SPAC	No
ISIN number	US94106L1098
Last 10-K release date	2026-02-09
Last earnings date	2026-10-27
Last refreshed	2026-10-28
Last stock split type	Never
Market cap	$89.9B
Market cap category	Large-Cap
Next earnings date	2027-01-27
Options	Yes
Price	$225.00
Price currency	USD
Sector	Industrials
SIC code	4953
Stock price date	2026-10-28
Symbol	WM
U.S. state	Texas
Website	https://www.wm.com

Valuation

Multiples, yields, enterprise-value ratios, and valuation checks.

Metric	Value
Adjusted P/E ratio	28.45x
Average P/E ratio (10Y)	29x
Average P/E ratio (3Y)	32.3x
Average P/E ratio (5Y)	31.77x
Earnings yield	3.39%
EV/Earnings	37.22x
EV/EBIT	23.17x
EV/EBITDA	14.46x
EV/FCF	30.55x
EV/Sales	4.38x
FCF / EV yield	3.27%
FCF yield	4.1%
Forward EV/Sales	4.15x
Forward P/E	25.68x
Forward P/S	3.31x
Graham number	65.11885
Graham upside	-71.44%
Industry forward P/E	31.26x
Industry P/E	42.72x
Lynch fair value	$90.84
Lynch upside	-60.15%
P/(FCF - SBC) ratio	25.52x
P/(OCF - SBC) ratio	14.25x
P/B ratio	9.53x
P/E ratio	29.53x
P/FCF ratio	24.37x
P/OCF ratio	13.88x
P/S ratio	3.5x
PEG ratio	2.78x
Price/EBITDA ratio	11.54x
Sector forward P/E	26.03x
Sector P/E	40.37x

Profitability

Margins, returns on capital, cash conversion, and quality metrics.

Metric	Value
EBIT margin	18.91%
EBITDA margin	30.3%
Effective tax rate	21.14%
FCF margin	14.35%
Gross margin	40.39%
Operating margin	18.91%
Pretax margin	14.94%
Profit margin	11.78%
Profit per employee	$50,744
Profitable quarters	45
Profitable years	25
Revenue per employee	$430,909
ROA	6.69%
ROA (5Y)	6.86%
ROCE	12.29%
ROE	31.68%
ROE (5Y)	31.19%
ROIC	11.84%
ROIC (5Y)	11.85%
SBC / revenue	0.65%
Tax / revenue	3.16%

Growth

Revenue, earnings, cash-flow, and forward growth indicators.

Metric	Value
EPS growth	20.17%
EPS growth (Q)	37.58%
EPS growth (QoQ)	5.13%
EPS growth 10Y	11.82%
EPS growth 3Y	10.5%
EPS growth 5Y	13.09%
EPS growth quarters	3
EPS growth years	0
FCF growth	55.7%
FCF growth (Q)	20.47%
FCF growth (QoQ)	-10.31%
FCF growth 3Y	30.81%
FCF growth 5Y	7.74%
Gross profit growth	5.47%
Gross profit growth (Q)	5.48%
Gross profit growth 3Y	11.52%
Gross profit growth 5Y	9.58%
Net income growth	19.74%
Net income growth (Q)	35.99%
Net income growth (QoQ)	4.46%
Net income growth 3Y	9.95%
Net income growth 5Y	11.92%
Net income growth quarters	3
Net income growth years	0
OCF growth	12.11%
OCF growth (Q)	3.02%
OCF growth (QoQ)	-4.98%
OCF growth 10Y	8.98%
OCF growth 3Y	14.39%
OCF growth 5Y	9.87%
Operating income growth	8.8%
Operating income growth (Q)	7.4%
Operating income growth 3Y	11.05%
Operating income growth 5Y	10.4%
Revenue growth	5.19%
Revenue growth (Q)	6.26%
Revenue growth (QoQ)	2.42%
Revenue growth 10Y	6.89%
Revenue growth 3Y	8.98%
Revenue growth 5Y	8.52%
Revenue growth quarters	23
Revenue growth years	5

Financial statements

Income-statement and cash-flow amounts, totals and per share.

Metric	Value
Capital expenditures	$-2.8B
Depreciation and amortization	$3B
EBIT	$4.9B
EBITDA	$7.9B
EPS	$7.62
FCF per share	$9.36
Financing cash flow	$-3.6B
Free cash flow	$3.7B
Free cash flow minus SBC	$3.6B
Gross profit	$10.5B
Income taxes	$823M
Investing cash flow	$-2.9B
Net borrowing	$-541M
Net cash flow	$24M
Net income	$3.1B
Operating cash flow minus SBC	$6.4B
Operating income	$4.9B
Revenue	$26.1B
Stock-based compensation	$169M

Financial strength

Debt, cash, solvency, accounting-quality, and balance-sheet signals.

Metric	Value
Book value per share	$24.74
Debt / EBITDA	2.96
Debt / equity	2.37
Debt / FCF	6.25
Goodwill	$14B
Interest coverage	5.37
Long-term assets	$41.3B
Long-term liabilities	$30.3B
Net cash (debt)	$-23.1B
Net cash / market cap	-25.37%
Net debt / EBITDA	2.93
Net debt / equity	2.34
Net debt / FCF	6.18
Piotroski F-Score	5
Property, plant and equipment	$20.8B
Shareholders' equity	$9.9B
Tangible book value	$-7.7B
Tangible book value per share	$-19.25
Total assets	$46.5B
Total cash	$247M
Total debt	$23.4B
Total liabilities	$36.7B
WACC	5.9%

Liquidity

Current-asset coverage and working-capital efficiency metrics.

Metric	Value
Asset turnover	0.57
Current assets	$5.3B
Current liabilities	$6.4B
Current ratio	0.82
Net working capital	$141M
Quick ratio	0.72
Working capital	$-1.1B
Working capital turnover	-25.63

Dividends and buybacks

Dividend yield, payout, buybacks, and shareholder-yield indicators.

Metric	Value
Buyback yield / dilution	0.3%
Dividend growth	13.49%
Dividend growth (10Y)	8.53%
Dividend growth (3Y)	10%
Dividend growth (5Y)	10.02%
Dividend growth years	22
Dividend payment date	2026-09-25
Dividend payment years	29
Dividend payout frequency	Quarterly
Dividend per share	$3.78
Dividend yield	1.68%
Ex-dividend date	2026-09-11
FCF payout ratio	40.4%
Last dividend	$0.95
Payout ratio	49.61%
Shareholder yield	1.96%

Performance and technicals

Returns, volatility, beta, momentum, RSI, and moving-average context.

Metric	Value
10Y price change	256.25%
10Y return CAGR	15.59%
10Y total return	325.76%
150-day SMA	$222.96
15Y price change	562.52%
15Y return CAGR	16.12%
15Y total return	841.29%
1D price change	-4.58%
1M price change	9.13%
1M total return	9.13%
1W price change	-2.59%
1W total return	-2.59%
1Y price change	5.59%
1Y return CAGR	7.36%
1Y total return	7.35%
20-day SMA	$220.36
200-day SMA	$225.09
20Y price change	504.82%
20Y return CAGR	12.31%
20Y total return	920.2%
3M price change	-5.12%
3M total return	-4.7%
3Y price change	39.87%
3Y return CAGR	13.55%
3Y total return	46.43%
50-day SMA	$217.56
50-day SMA vs 200-day SMA	50under200
52-week high	$248.13
52-week high date	2026-03-06
52-week low	$194.11
52-week low date	2025-11-03
5Y price change	45.49%
5Y return CAGR	9.5%
5Y total return	57.43%
6M price change	-0.21%
6M total return	0.66%
All-time high	$248.13
All-time high date	2026-03-06
All-time low	$9.75
All-time low date	1993-11-22
Average true range (ATR)	$4.78
Average volume	2.5M
Beta (1Y)	-0.53
Beta (2Y)	-0.08
Beta (5Y)	0.43
Change from 52-week high	-9.32%
Change from 52-week low	15.91%
Change from all-time high	-9.03%
Change from all-time low	2,215.08%
Change from open	-0.84%
Day's gap	-3.78%
Dollar volume	$688.5M
High price	$230.15
Low price	$224.81
Monthly RSI	53.53
Open price	$226.90
Position in 52-week range	3.56%
Premarket change	-4.79%
Premarket close	$235.81
Premarket price	$224.51
Premarket volume	8.4K
Previous close	$235.81
Price vs 150-day SMA	1.24%
Price vs 20-day SMA	2.43%
Price vs 200-day SMA	0.28%
Price vs 50-day SMA	3.75%
Relative volume	1.25
RSI	53.71
Sharpe ratio	0.25
Sharpe ratio (3Y)	0.61
Sharpe ratio (5Y)	0.32
Sortino ratio	0.63
Sortino ratio (3Y)	1.19
Sortino ratio (5Y)	0.77
Volume	3.1M
Weekly RSI	52.16
YTD price change	2.74%
YTD total return	4.05%

Ownership and float

Institutional, insider, float, short-interest, and share-count fields.

Metric	Value
Float	398.5M
Float percentage	99.7%
Shares change (QoQ)	-0.65%
Shares change (YoY)	-0.3%
Shares held by insiders	0.17%
Shares held by institutions	84.55%
Shares outstanding	399.7M
Short % of float	1.95%
Short % of shares	1.95%
Short ratio	3.5 days

Other indicators

Additional ticker metrics that do not fit the primary research groupings.

Metric	Value
Page views	507

Deeper analysis on WM

14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need

Forecast

Base and Bull forecast paths with report-date return framing.

→

Valuation

Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.

→

Sensitivity

Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.

→

Risks

Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.

→

Earnings

Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.

→

Position sizing

Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.

→

Financials

Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.

→

Peers

Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.

→

Moat

Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.

→

Industry cycle

Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.

→

Scorecard

Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.

Frequently asked questions

About this WM report

What is the latest published WM stock rating?

Waste Management, Inc. is shown with Sell in the latest published report, analyzed 2026-09-27. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the dated rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.

Where can I read the full WM analysis?

The full latest published report, analyzed 2026-09-27, lives at /stocks/WM/analysis. The bare ticker page summarizes that read and links to each analysis tab; earlier editions remain under /analysis/archive.

What fair value is used for WM?

The latest published report analyzed 2026-09-27 gives WM a fair value of USD 152 and a potential value of USD 176. These are dated research outputs, not live market prices; review the valuation assumptions, sensitivity analysis, and material risks before making a decision.

How often is the WM page updated?

The hub selects the latest published stock report regardless of age and displays its analysis date (2026-09-27). Separately sourced market data is labeled with its own recorded timestamp and is never inferred from the report.

SellWM · Fair value $152-26.3%

Read full analysis →

Waste Management, Inc. (WM)

Our latest published analysis: WM rated Sell

Price

Financial snapshot

Fair-value bridge

Latest news · WM

Valuation

Profitability

Balance sheet

Trading

Base and Bull scenarios

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

Scorecard

Next earnings

Sector percentile context

All WM indicators

Profile and market data

Valuation

Profitability

Growth

Financial statements

Financial strength

Liquidity

Dividends and buybacks

Performance and technicals

Ownership and float

Other indicators

Deeper analysis on WM

Frequently asked questions

レーティング履歴

Category	Score	Reading
Valuation	1.5
Management	8.5
Balance Sheet	1.5
Profitability	7.5
Revenue Growth	4.5
Risk Assessment	3.5
Competitive Moat	9.0
Earnings Quality	8.0
Capital Efficiency	6.5