§ Methodology terms
Scenario probability
Glossary version 2026-07-12.v1 · reviewed July 12, 2026
scenario probability weightprobability weight
The estimated likelihood assigned to a defined scenario. Probabilities describe uncertainty, must use mutually exclusive scenarios, and should sum to 100% across the complete set.
Scenario probability is the explicit likelihood attached to a Bull, Base, Bear, or other defined path. It is a judgment informed by evidence, not a frequency guarantee. The scenarios must be mutually exclusive and collectively complete, and probability weights should change only when the underlying evidence or assumptions change.