BlackRock, Inc. (BLK)
NYSE: BLK · Real-Time Price · USD
$1085
+17.08 (+1.6%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: BLK rated Sell
BLK is rated Sell at $1,084.83 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $670.43, implying -38.20% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 77/100.
Fair value (mid)
$670 / share
$459 – $889
Upside to FV
-38.2%
from $1085
Confidence
77/100
Moat
9/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: Continued dominance in global ETF flows, successful scaling of private market alternatives, and high-margin Aladdin software growth drive robust operating leverage and premium multiples.
Biggest risk
Sustained Market Stagnation
Sustained Market Stagnation: Extended equity and fixed-income market drawdowns mechanically shrink AUM, severely degrading base management fees and operating leverage.
Recommended action
Sell
BLK is rated Sell at $1,084.83 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $670.43, implying -38.20% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 77/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $168.4B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 25.6B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 6.3B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $39.8 | |
| Shares out | 162.8M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 27.2x | |
| P/E (forward) | 17.9x | |
| Dividend | $22.9 (2.11%) | |
| Volume | 490,877 | |
| Beta | 1.46 | |
| Price target | $1275 | +17.5% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 25.6B
- Net income (ttm)
- 6.3B
- EPS (ttm)
- $39.8
- P/E (trailing)
- 27.2x
- P/E (forward)
- 17.9x
- Market cap
- $168.4B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2021-12-31 | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $19.37B | $17.87B | $17.86B | $20.41B | $24.22B | +5.7% |
| Gross profit | $9.82B | $8.68B | $8.58B | $10.09B | $11.31B | +3.6% |
| Operating income | $7.45B | $6.48B | $6.34B | $7.54B | $7.91B | +1.5% |
| Net income | $5.90B | $5.18B | $5.50B | $6.37B | $5.55B | -1.5% |
| EPS (diluted) | $38.07 | $33.97 | $36.51 | $42.01 | $35.31 | -1.9% |
| EBITDA | $8.79B | $6.92B | $7.87B | $9.36B | $9.36B | +1.6% |
| R&D | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| SG&A | $2.22B | $2.06B | $2.09B | $2.26B | $2.63B | +4.3% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $459
- Fair value (mid)
- $670
- Fair value (high)
- $889
- Current price
- $1085
- Upside to mid
- -38.2%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | $896 | 55% |
| Residual income | $380 | 25% |
| Ddm | $414 | 20% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| FCFF DCF | $1113 | 0% |
| Owner earnings | $1343 | 0% |
| Discounted earnings | $925 | 0% |
| Multi stage moat fade | $909 | 0% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $420 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Strong Buy
Price target
$1275
+17.5%
In the news
Latest news · BLK
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $168.4B
- P/E (trailing)
- 27.2x
- P/E (forward)
- 17.9x
- P/S
- 6.9x
- P/B
- 3.0x
- PEG
- 1.47
- EV / EBITDA
- 17.3x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 46.9%
- Operating margin
- 35.2%
- ROE
- 11.9%
- ROA
- 3.6%
- ROIC
- 11.3%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 0.24
- Current ratio
- 2.17
- Quick ratio
- 1.60
Trading
- Beta
- 1.46
- Volume
- 490,877
- Dividend yield
- 2.1%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: -38.2% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$888.83
-18.1% from spot
Continued dominance in global ETF flows, successful scaling of private market alternatives, and high-margin Aladdin software growth drive robust operating leverage and premium multiples.
- Aladdin growth exceeds 15%
- Multiple expansion continues
Base55%
Price target
$670.43
-38.2% from spot
BlackRock commands industry-leading scale in asset management, pairing structural tailwinds in passive investing (iShares) with a sticky, high-margin enterprise technology platform (Aladdin).
- 10-15% revenue growth
- 15x terminal PE multiple
Bear25%
Price target
$458.59
-57.7% from spot
Persistent fee compression in core index products, extended equity or fixed-income market stagnation reducing AUM-based fees, and political pushback restricting institutional allocations.
- AUM contraction limits scale
- Multiple compresses to archetype floor
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $670.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | 55% | $896 | -17.4% | |
| Residual income | 25% | $380 | -65.0% | |
| Ddm | 20% | $414 | -61.9% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| FCFF DCF | 0% | $1113 | +2.6% | |
| Owner earnings | 0% | $1343 | +23.8% | |
| Discounted earnings | 0% | $925 | -14.8% | |
| Multi stage moat fade | 0% | $909 | -16.2% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 0% | $420 | -61.3% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $670 | -38.2% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.9% | $1063 | $1172 | $1306 | $1475 | $1568 |
| 7.9% | $896 | $972 | $1063 | $1172 | $1306 |
| 8.9% | $774 | $831 | $896 | $972 | $1063 |
| 9.9% | $682 | $725 | $774 | $831 | $896 |
| 10.9% | $609 | $643 | $682 | $725 | $774 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management6.9
Balance Sheet8.5
Profitability5.5
Revenue Growth7.5
Risk Assessment8.0
Competitive Moat9.0
Earnings Quality6.5
Capital Efficiency5.5
Weighted composite
6.9/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 6.9 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 8.5 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 5.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 8.0 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 5.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 77/100
Target weight
Avoid or divest. The severe fair-value gap (-38.2%) provides zero margin of safety at current market pricing.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$1085
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Harvest profits. Current valuation implies unmodeled intangibles that archetype constraints reject.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E17.9
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE11.9
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC11.3
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All BLK indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
255
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 255 of 255 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on BLK
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this BLK report
What is the current BLK stock rating?
BlackRock, Inc. is currently shown with Sell in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full BLK analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/BLK/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for BLK?
The latest report frames BLK around $459 to $889. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the BLK page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
SellBLK · Fair value $670-38.2% · Confidence 77/100