CAT trades against a final fair-value range of $238.48-$460.07, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $238, high $460, with mid-point at $339.
Stock analysis
Caterpillar Inc.CAT Caterpillar Inc. fair value $339–$460
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§1 개요
Composite fair value $339 with high case $460.
Implied downside of 62.4% to fair value.
Moat 6.5/10 · confidence 88/100 · Cyclical.
Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$339
Margin of safety
-165.8%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
6.5/10
Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.
$900.76Price
FV $338.91
High $460.07
CAT trades against a final fair-value range of $238.48-$460.07, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.
In a severe economic contraction, CAT's high fixed-cost base and customer capex deferrals compound to collapse free cash flow. Assuming a 20% revenue drop and operating margins reverting to 10%, intrinsic value plunges below our $238.48 low-end estimate.
이 논제가 무너지는 경로
Global Construction Recession
35%· Medium
Simultaneous contraction in North American and European infrastructure spending leading to severe revenue declines.
FV impact
-40%
Chinese Resource Demand Collapse
25%· Medium
Structural slowdown in Chinese property and infrastructure development severely curtailing global mining capex.
FV impact
-30%
Aggressive Margin Reversion
40%· High
Inability to maintain peak pricing power as supply chains normalize and demand softens, collapsing operating margins back to historical averages.
FV impact
-50%
모니터링할 조기 경보 신호
지표
현재
트리거 임계값
Consecutive quarters of declining dealer inventory metrics.
Monitor
Deterioration versus the report thesis
Sharp contraction in global mining capital expenditure budgets.
Monitor
Deterioration versus the report thesis
Sustained weakness in the Architecture Billings Index.
Monitor
Deterioration versus the report thesis
Rising default rates in CAT Financial's portfolio.
Monitor
Deterioration versus the report thesis
Aggressive discounting by key competitors to maintain market share.
Monitor
Deterioration versus the report thesis
§3 재무 이력
손익계산서 — 최근 6기
항목
T−0
T−1
T−2
T−3
CAGR
기간
2022-12-31
2023-12-31
2024-12-31
2025-12-31
Trend
매출
$59.43B
$67.06B
$64.81B
$67.59B
+4.4%
매출총이익
$17.51B
$23.26B
$23.32B
$21.48B
+7.0%
영업이익
$8.83B
$12.97B
$13.07B
$11.15B
+8.1%
순이익
$6.71B
$10.34B
$10.79B
$8.88B
+9.8%
EPS (희석)
$12.64
$20.12
$22.05
$18.81
+14.2%
EBITDA
$11.41B
$15.71B
$16.04B
$14.31B
+7.8%
R&D
$1.81B
$2.11B
$2.11B
$2.15B
+5.8%
판관비
$5.65B
$6.37B
$6.67B
$6.99B
+7.3%
품질 점수
Piotroski F-스코어
6 / 9
0–9 품질 종합
Altman Z-스코어
5.43
파산 위험 (>3 안전)
Beneish M-스코어
-2.43
이익 조작 위험
OCF / 순이익
1.32×
>1은 이익의 질이 높음을 의미
회계 품질 게이트
Pass
섹터 조정 게이트
ROIC
14.7%
투하자본수익률
섹션 3
Numbers analysis
현금 흐름
Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCF / net income, accounting-quality, and ROIC rows above.
자본 배분
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
개인 구독자 — §4부터11개 섹션 더
전체 분석 읽기 — 11개 섹션 더.
Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.
Based on our latest independent analysis, CAT looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $901 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $339 (range $238–$460), which implies roughly 62.4% downside to the midpoint.
Our composite fair-value range for CAT is $238–$460, with a midpoint of $339. The range is triangulated across multiple valuation models (discounted earnings, forward earnings scenarios, peer multiples, and where applicable owner earnings or reverse DCF) and weighted by reliability for Caterpillar Inc.'s archetype.
Our current rating for CAT is Sell with a confidence score of 88/100. CAT is rated Sell at $900.76 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $338.91, implying -62.38% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100. This is independent research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
The top risks our latest report flags for Caterpillar Inc. are: Global Construction Recession; Chinese Resource Demand Collapse; Aggressive Margin Reversion. The single biggest risk is Global Construction Recession: Simultaneous contraction in North American and European infrastructure spending leading to severe revenue declines.
Our current rating for CAT is Sell, issued with a confidence score of 88/100 and a moat score of 6.5/10. The rating reflects the composite fair-value range ($238–$460) versus the current price of $901.
Caterpillar Inc. is classified as a cyclical stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for CAT.
