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Direct answer
COR trades against a final fair-value range of $342.15-$514.68, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $342, high $515, with mid-point at $428.
Stock analysis

COR COR fair value $342–$515

COR
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
분석일: 2026-05-13다음 업데이트: 2026-08-13Methodology v2.4Review: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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주가
$260.93
▲ +166.64 (+63.86%)
공정 가치
$428
$342–$515
등급
적극 매수
confidence 78/100
상승 여력
+63.9%
upside to fair value
안전 마진
$363.43
MoS level · 15%
시가총액
$50.8B
P/E fwd 13.2
영어 원본으로 대체KO
번역하는 동안 영어 원본을 표시 중
이 리포트는 아직 번역되지 않았습니다. 번역 대기열이 따라잡으면 몇 분 후에 새로고침하세요.

§1 개요

  • Composite fair value $428 with high case $515.
  • Implied upside of 63.9% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 78/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Trades below fair value with a meaningful cushion to the midpoint.
Fair value
$428
Margin of safety
+39.0%
Confidence
78/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$260.93Price
Low $342.15
Mid $427.57
High $514.68

COR trades against a final fair-value range of $342.15-$514.68, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Cost Advantage
    Massive scale as a dominant triopoly member ensures procurement efficiency and low per-unit costs.
  • Network Effect
    Irreplaceable intermediary connecting highly fragmented retail pharmacies with global biopharma manufacturers.
  • Bull thesis
    The market is incorrectly penalizing Cencora for short-term working capital anomalies, masking the highly durable 23% ROIC.

§2 베어 케이스

A negative working capitalWorking capitalCurrent assets minus current liabilities. The capital tied up in the operating cycle (receivables and inventory) net of trade financing (payables). spiral combined with sustained operating marginOperating marginOperating income (EBIT) divided by revenue. Captures profitability after both direct costs and operating expenses but before interest, tax, and non-operating items. compression below 1.1% would break the capital return algorithm, rendering share repurchases dilutive.

이 논제가 무너지는 경로

Severe Drug Pricing Intervention

15%· Low

Aggressive legislative action structurally reduces US branded and generic drug pricing, crushing distribution fee economics and compressing margins below 1%.

FV impact
Severe (FV ~342)

Direct-to-Consumer Biopharma Pivot

10%· Low

Manufacturers systematically bypass wholesale networks for specialty and blockbuster treatments, structurally degrading top-line growth and ROIC.

FV impact
Severe (FV < 300)

Generic Deflation Acceleration

20%· Medium

Intense generic price deflation outpaces unit volume growth, eroding gross profit dollars and causing operating leverage to inflect negatively.

FV impact
Moderate
모니터링할 조기 경보 신호
지표현재트리거 임계값
Operating margins persistently dropping below the 1.1% historical floor.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Negative free cash flow persists beyond short-term working capital anomalies.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Major contract losses with top-tier pharmacy chains or health systems.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Significant manufacturer shifts to direct distribution models for high-margin specialty drugs.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Legislative shifts implementing structural caps on wholesale distribution margins.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 재무 이력

손익계산서 — 최근 6기
항목T−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
기간2022-09-302023-09-302024-09-302025-09-30Trend
매출$238.59B$262.17B$293.96B$321.33B+10.4%
매출총이익$8.30B$8.96B$9.91B$11.48B+11.4%
영업이익$2.75B$2.69B$3.16B$3.93B+12.6%
순이익$1.70B$1.75B$1.51B$1.55B-2.9%
EPS (희석)$8.04$8.53$7.53$7.96-0.3%
EBITDA$3.10B$3.37B$3.37B$3.75B+6.5%
R&D
판관비$4.85B$5.31B$5.66B$6.49B+10.2%

품질 점수

OCF / 순이익
2.49×
>1은 이익의 질이 높음을 의미
회계 품질 게이트
Fail
섹터 조정 게이트
ROIC
23.1%
투하자본수익률
섹션 3

Numbers analysis

개인 구독자 — §4부터11개 섹션 더

전체 분석 읽기 — 11개 섹션 더.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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FAQ

COR — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, COR looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $261 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $428 (range $342–$515), which implies roughly 63.9% upside to the midpoint.
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