Elastic N.V. (ESTC)

NYSE: ESTC · USD

—

영어 원본으로 대체KO

번역하는 동안 영어 원본을 표시 중

이 리포트는 아직 번역되지 않았습니다. 번역 대기열이 따라잡으면 몇 분 후에 새로고침하세요.

StockMarketAgent Research · Analyzed 2026-10-22

Our latest published analysis: ESTC rated Reduce

Elastic N.V.'s published Reduce conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.

Fair value

$79.9 / share

Potential value

$93.3 / share

Upside to FV

-19.1%

Moat

7.5/10

Narrow

Read full analysis →View archive · 24mo

9-phase methodology · same model in each published edition

Market cap	$10.4B
P/E (forward)	27.4x

Market data

Price

Recent price action with selectable time range.

Financial snapshot

P/E (forward): 27.4x
Market cap: $10.4B

Item	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5	Trend
Period	2022-04-30	2023-04-30	2024-04-30	2025-04-30	2026-04-30	Trend
Revenue	$862.4M	$1.07B	$1.27B	$1.48B	$1.74B	+19.2%
Gross profit	$630.2M	$772.4M	$937.2M	$1.10B	$1.32B	+20.4%
Operating income	$-173.7M	$-219.2M	$-129.9M	$-54.9M	$-33.5M	—
Net income	$-203.8M	$-236.2M	$61.7M	$-108.1M	$367.8M	—
EPS (diluted)	$-2.20	$-2.47	$0.59	$-1.04	$3.43	—
EBITDA	$-157.3M	$-171.5M	$-78.6M	$6.1M	$34.7M	—
R&D	$273.8M	$313.5M	$342.0M	$365.8M	$451.9M	+13.4%
SG&A	$123.4M	$143.2M	$160.6M	$175.2M	$194.4M	+12.0%

Ticker	Name	Market cap	P/E	P/S	ROIC	5Y rev CAGR	1Y total return	Rating
AAPL	Apple Inc.	—	—	—	—	—	—	매도
ABNB	Airbnb, Inc.	—	—	—	—	—	—	매도
ADBE	Adobe Inc.	—	—	—	—	—	—	적극 매수
ACN	Accenture plc	—	—	—	—	—	—	보유
ADI	Analog Devices, Inc.	—	—	—	—	—	—	매도
AI	C3.ai, Inc.	—	—	—	—	—	—	매도

Base and Bull scenarios

Bull20%

Price target

$93.33

-5.5% from spot

Generative AI and agentic application deployments accelerate rapidly, driving massive vector data indexing and log ingestion across enterprise customer tiers. Elastic successfully displaces legacy observability and SIEM vendors, enabling sales-led subscription growth to sustain strong compounding with operating margins expanding significantly.

Annual EPS growth averaging 24.0%
Accelerating enterprise AI adoption driving sustained sales-led subscription growth
Operating margins expanding rapidly through operational leverage by FY2030

Base60%

Price target

$79.91

-19.1% from spot

Elastic executes its guided operating plan, achieving mid-teens revenue growth in FY2027 and expanding non-GAAP operating margin to 19.4%. Long-term margins normalize toward 24.5% as sales capacity matures, yielding the house fair value of $79.91 per share.

Revenue growth scaling from 15.29% in FY2027 to 10.50% in FY2031
Non-GAAP operating margin expanding from 19.4% in FY2027 to 24.5% in FY2031
Terminal P/E multiple of 22.0x and terminal growth of 3.0% with Ke of 9.8002%

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($79.91). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.

Ke ↓ / g →	2.5%	2.8%	3.0%	3.3%	3.5%
8.8%	$85.5	$86.8	$88.3	$89.8	$91.6
9.3%	$81.5	$82.6	$83.8	$85.1	$86.5
9.8%	$78.0	$78.9	$79.9	$81.0	$82.2
10.3%	$74.8	$75.6	$76.5	$77.4	$78.4
10.8%	$72.0	$72.7	$73.4	$74.2	$75.0

Scorecard

Published factor rows and weighted composite

Calendar

Next earnings

Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.

Upcoming

DateLoading

Window—

EPS estimate—

Revenue estimate—

Sector percentile context

Forward P/E27.4

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Trailing P/E27.3

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROEn/a

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROICn/a

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Benchmarks · 1M

Deeper analysis on ESTC

14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need

Forecast

Base and Bull forecast paths with report-date return framing.

→

Valuation

Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.

→

Sensitivity

Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.

→

Risks

Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.

→

Earnings

Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.

→

Position sizing

Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.

→

Financials

Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.

→

Peers

Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.

→

Moat

Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.

→

Industry cycle

Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.

→

Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.

Frequently asked questions

About this ESTC report

What is the latest published ESTC stock rating?

Elastic N.V. is shown with Reduce in the latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-22. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the dated rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.

Where can I read the full ESTC analysis?

The full latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-22, lives at /stocks/ESTC/analysis. The bare ticker page summarizes that read and links to each analysis tab; earlier editions remain under /analysis/archive.

What fair value is used for ESTC?

The latest published report analyzed 2026-10-22 gives ESTC a fair value of USD 80 and a potential value of USD 93. These are dated research outputs, not live market prices; review the valuation assumptions, sensitivity analysis, and material risks before making a decision.

How often is the ESTC page updated?

The hub selects the latest published stock report regardless of age and displays its analysis date (2026-10-22). Separately sourced market data is labeled with its own recorded timestamp and is never inferred from the report.

ReduceESTC · Fair value $79.9-19.1%

Read full analysis →

Category	Score	Reading
Valuation	3.0
Management	9.5
Balance Sheet	7.0
Profitability	7.5
Revenue Growth	7.5
Risk Assessment	6.5
Competitive Moat	7.5
Earnings Quality	6.0
Capital Efficiency	2.5

Elastic N.V. (ESTC)

Our latest published analysis: ESTC rated Reduce

Price

Financial snapshot

Fair-value bridge

Latest news · ESTC

Valuation

Base and Bull scenarios

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

Scorecard

Next earnings

Sector percentile context

Deeper analysis on ESTC

Frequently asked questions

등급 이력