Expeditors International of Washington Inc. (EXPD)

NASDAQ: EXPD · USD

$197

-2.97 (-1.5%)· Recorded snapshot

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StockMarketAgent Research · Analyzed 2026-10-07

Our latest published analysis: EXPD rated Sell

Expeditors International of Washington Inc.'s published Sell conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.

Fair value

$118 / share

Potential value

$128 / share

Upside to FV

-38.2%

from $197

Moat

7.5/10

Narrow

Read full analysis →View archive · 24mo

9-phase methodology · same model in each published edition

Market cap	$24.8B
Revenue (ttm)	12B
Net income (ttm)	918.8M
EPS (ttm)	$6.87
Shares out	130M
P/E (trailing)	28.6x
P/E (forward)	24.4x
Dividend	$1.62 (0.83%)
Volume	844,883
Beta	1.06

Market data

Price

Recent price action with selectable time range.

Financial snapshot

Revenue (ttm): 12B
Net income (ttm): 918.8M
EPS (ttm): $6.87
P/E (trailing): 28.6x
P/E (forward): 24.4x
Market cap: $24.8B

Item	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5	Trend
Period	2021-12-31	2022-12-31	2023-12-31	2024-12-31	2025-12-31	Trend
Revenue	$16.52B	$17.07B	$9.30B	$10.60B	$11.07B	-9.5%
Gross profit	$2.17B	$2.17B	$1.25B	$1.35B	$1.69B	-6.0%
Operating income	$1.91B	$1.82B	$939.9M	$1.04B	$1.05B	-13.8%
Net income	$1.42B	$1.36B	$752.9M	$810.1M	$810.3M	-13.0%
EPS (diluted)	$8.27	$8.26	$5.01	$5.72	$5.95	-7.9%
EBITDA	$1.98B	$1.92B	$1.09B	$1.16B	$1.15B	-12.6%
R&D	—	—	—	—	—	—
SG&A	$16.0M	$24.3M	$510.0M	$33.3M	$40.1M	+25.8%

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AAL	American Airlines Group Inc.	8.3B	—	0.1x	3.0%	+20.0%	-6.9%	보유
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ALLE	Allegion plc	15.2B	22.5x	3.5x	19.4%	+8.8%	+7.2%	보유

Base and Bull scenarios

Base60%

Price target

$117.88

-38.2% from spot

In the Base scenario, assigned a probability of 60.0%, global freight forwarding volumes stabilize following post-pandemic inventory destocking, supporting a scenario target of $117.88 and an implied return of -38.2% relative to $190.80. Expeditors maintains its non-asset routing density across Asian origin gateways and high-margin customs brokerage across North America and Europe. Operating margins remain steady in the high single digits, while capital expenditures remain minimal, allowing operating cash flow to convert into free cash flow and fund ongoing share count reduction. This outcome would be disconfirmed if transpacific shipment file counts contract or if customs brokerage revenue turns negative over consecutive fiscal quarters, which investors would detect through quarterly volume and gross yield disclosures.

Transpacific and European freight forwarding volumes expand at steady historical rates aligned with global economic growth
Operating margins remain resilient in the high single digits supported by disciplined branch incentive compensation
Customs brokerage fee revenue maintains steady growth, buffering ocean and airfreight rate cycles
Free cash flow conversion continues to exceed net income, funding steady ongoing share repurchases

Bull20%

Price target

$127.57

-33.1% from spot

In the Bull scenario, carrying a probability of 20.0%, heightened supply chain complexity, carrier capacity tightness, and cross-border regulatory demands expand gross yields, lifting the scenario target to $127.57 and producing an implied return of -33.1% compared to $190.80. Acceleration in customs brokerage filings across European and American gateways combined with robust transpacific export demand boosts operating margins into the low double digits. Heightened cash flow generation funds accelerated share repurchases, retiring equity at an expanded pace. This scenario would be disconfirmed if ocean and airfreight carrier capacity loosens dramatically or if customer insourcing dampens brokerage fee expansion over the next several fiscal quarters.

Global supply chain diversification and multimodal routing complexity accelerate demand for specialized customs brokerage

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($117.88). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.

Ke ↓ / g →	2.0%	2.3%	2.5%	2.8%	3.0%
8.8%	$124	$126	$128	$130	$132
9.3%	$119	$121	$122	$124	$126
9.8%	$115	$116	$118	$119	$121
10.3%	$112	$113	$114	$115	$117
10.8%	$108	$109	$110	$112	$113

Scorecard

Published factor rows and weighted composite

Calendar

Next earnings

Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.

Upcoming

DateLoading

Window—

EPS estimate—

Revenue estimate—

Sector percentile context

Refreshed 2026-10-28 19:55 UTC

Forward P/E24.5

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Trailing P/E27.9

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROE42.7

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROIC57

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Benchmarks · 1M

All EXPD indicators

Market & fundamental data

Available fields

290

Groups with data

Currency

USD

Showing 290 of 290 available metrics for this ticker.

Profile and market data

Ticker identity, listing, currency, market cap, and source dates.

Metric	Value
Amount currency	USD
CIK code	0000746515
Company name	Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.
Country	United States
Country code	US
CUSIP number	302130109
Earnings date	2026-11-03
Earnings time	bmo
Employees	19,800
Employees change	1,800
Employees growth	10%
Enterprise value	$25.1B
Exchange	NYSE
Financial currency	USD
Financial report date	2026-06-30
First seen	2026-05-09
Fiscal year end	December
Founded	1979
In index	SP500
Industry	Integrated Freight & Logistics
Is primary listing	Yes
Is SPAC	No
ISIN number	US3021301094
Last 10-K release date	2026-02-25
Last earnings date	2026-08-04
Last refreshed	2026-10-28
Last stock split date	2006-06-26
Last stock split type	Forward
Market cap	$25.6B
Market cap category	Large-Cap
Next earnings date	2026-11-03
Options	Yes
Price	$196.66
Price currency	USD
Sector	Industrials
SIC code	4731
Stock price date	2026-10-28
Symbol	EXPD
U.S. state	Washington
Website	https://www.expeditors.com

Valuation

Multiples, yields, enterprise-value ratios, and valuation checks.

Metric	Value
Adjusted P/E ratio	28.63x
Average P/E ratio (10Y)	20.39x
Average P/E ratio (3Y)	22.42x
Average P/E ratio (5Y)	18.87x
Earnings yield	3.49%
EV/Earnings	27.23x
EV/EBIT	20.7x
EV/EBITDA	19.8x
EV/FCF	27.08x
EV/Sales	2.08x
FCF / EV yield	3.69%
FCF yield	3.63%
Forward EV/Sales	1.87x
Forward P/E	24.75x
Forward P/S	1.91x
Graham number	50.18003
Graham upside	-74.4%
Industry forward P/E	15.85x
Industry P/E	20.89x
Lynch fair value	$34.34
Lynch upside	-82.48%
P/(FCF - SBC) ratio	30.04x
P/(OCF - SBC) ratio	28.41x
P/B ratio	12.25x
P/E ratio	28.63x
P/FCF ratio	27.58x
P/OCF ratio	26.2x
P/S ratio	2.12x
PEG ratio	1.76x
Price / tangible book value	12.07x
Price/EBITDA ratio	20.17x
Sector forward P/E	26.24x
Sector P/E	40.28x

Profitability

Margins, returns on capital, cash conversion, and quality metrics.

Metric	Value
EBIT margin	10.04%
EBITDA margin	10.5%
Effective tax rate	24.8%
FCF margin	7.68%
Gross margin	13.55%
Operating margin	10.04%
Pretax margin	10.18%
Profit margin	7.63%
Profit per employee	$46,404
Profitable quarters	126
Profitable years	33
Revenue per employee	$607,879
ROA	15.23%
ROA (5Y)	15.24%
ROCE	46.94%
ROE	42.67%
ROE (5Y)	37.02%
ROIC	56.96%
ROIC (5Y)	58.35%
SBC / revenue	0.63%
Tax / revenue	2.52%

Growth

Revenue, earnings, cash-flow, and forward growth indicators.

Metric	Value
EPS growth	11.8%
EPS growth (Q)	51.49%
EPS growth (QoQ)	18.71%
EPS growth 10Y	11.13%
EPS growth 3Y	0.73%
EPS growth 5Y	3.48%
EPS growth quarters	2
EPS growth years	2
FCF growth	14.04%
FCF growth (Q)	2.03%
FCF growth (QoQ)	-43.82%
FCF growth 3Y	-20.04%
FCF growth 5Y	7.12%
Gross profit growth	6.83%
Gross profit growth (Q)	29.7%
Gross profit growth 3Y	-2.37%
Gross profit growth 5Y	0.21%
Net income growth	7.74%
Net income growth (Q)	45.02%
Net income growth (QoQ)	15.95%
Net income growth 3Y	-4.54%
Net income growth 5Y	-1.55%
Net income growth quarters	2
Net income growth years	2
OCF growth	12.89%
OCF growth (Q)	-0.32%
OCF growth (QoQ)	-42.23%
OCF growth 10Y	5.13%
OCF growth 3Y	-19.47%
OCF growth 5Y	7.12%
Operating income growth	8.3%
Operating income growth (Q)	51.39%
Operating income growth 3Y	-3.81%
Operating income growth 5Y	-1.89%
Revenue growth	6.77%
Revenue growth (Q)	32.07%
Revenue growth (QoQ)	25.85%
Revenue growth 10Y	6.96%
Revenue growth 3Y	-1.61%
Revenue growth 5Y	-0.17%
Revenue growth quarters	2
Revenue growth years	2

Financial statements

Income-statement and cash-flow amounts, totals and per share.

Metric	Value
Capital expenditures	$-48.7M
Depreciation and amortization	$54.9M
EBIT	$1.2B
EBITDA	$1.3B
EPS	$6.87
FCF per share	$7.11
Financing cash flow	$-1.1B
Free cash flow	$923.9M
Free cash flow minus SBC	$848.4M
Gross profit	$1.6B
Income taxes	$303.8M
Investing cash flow	$-19M
Net borrowing	$-1.2M
Net cash flow	$-124.7M
Net income	$918.8M
Operating cash flow minus SBC	$897.1M
Operating income	$1.2B
Revenue	$12B
Stock-based compensation	$75.4M

Financial strength

Debt, cash, solvency, accounting-quality, and balance-sheet signals.

Metric	Value
Altman Z-Score	7.82
Book value per share	$16.30
Debt / EBITDA	0.37
Debt / equity	0.27
Debt / FCF	0.61
Goodwill	$7.9M
Long-term assets	$1.1B
Long-term liabilities	$454.4M
Net cash (debt)	$464.2M
Net cash / market cap	1.82%
Net cash growth	-18.51%
Net debt / EBITDA	-0.37
Net debt / equity	-0.22
Net debt / FCF	-0.5
Piotroski F-Score	6
Property, plant and equipment	$997.7M
Shareholders' equity	$2.1B
Tangible book value	$2.1B
Tangible book value per share	$16.23
Total assets	$5.1B
Total cash	$1B
Total debt	$567.3M
Total liabilities	$3B
WACC	9.88%

Liquidity

Current-asset coverage and working-capital efficiency metrics.

Metric	Value
Asset turnover	2.43
Current assets	$4B
Current liabilities	$2.6B
Current ratio	1.57
Net working capital	$532.4M
Quick ratio	1.43
Working capital	$1.4B
Working capital turnover	8.07

Dividends and buybacks

Dividend yield, payout, buybacks, and shareholder-yield indicators.

Metric	Value
Buyback yield / dilution	3.73%
Dividend growth	5.33%
Dividend growth (10Y)	7.59%
Dividend growth (3Y)	5.13%
Dividend growth (5Y)	7.51%
Dividend growth years	31
Dividend payment date	2026-06-15
Dividend payment years	34
Dividend payout frequency	Semi-Annual
Dividend per share	$1.62
Dividend yield	0.83%
Ex-dividend date	2026-06-01
FCF payout ratio	22.23%
Last dividend	$0.81
Payout ratio	23.01%
Shareholder yield	4.56%

Performance and technicals

Returns, volatility, beta, momentum, RSI, and moving-average context.

Metric	Value
10Y price change	286.1%
10Y return CAGR	15.88%
10Y total return	336.6%
150-day SMA	$171.33
15Y price change	315.38%
15Y return CAGR	11.4%
15Y total return	405.16%
1D price change	-1.49%
1M price change	4.61%
1M total return	4.61%
1W price change	-1.16%
1W total return	-1.16%
1Y price change	63.9%
1Y return CAGR	65.66%
1Y total return	65.61%
20-day SMA	$195.01
200-day SMA	$166.52
20Y price change	317.06%
20Y return CAGR	8.69%
20Y total return	429.43%
3M price change	14.45%
3M total return	14.45%
3Y price change	82%
3Y return CAGR	23.52%
3Y total return	88.5%
50-day SMA	$191.24
50-day SMA vs 200-day SMA	50over200
52-week high	$200.66
52-week high date	2026-10-16
52-week low	$117.45
52-week low date	2025-10-29
5Y price change	63.72%
5Y return CAGR	11.65%
5Y total return	73.44%
6M price change	32.41%
6M total return	33.09%
All-time high	$200.66
All-time high date	2026-10-16
All-time low	$0.21
All-time low date	1985-10-30
Average true range (ATR)	$4.05
Average volume	1.1M
Beta (1Y)	0.4
Beta (2Y)	0.67
Beta (5Y)	1.06
Change from 52-week high	-1.99%
Change from 52-week low	67.44%
Change from all-time high	-2.27%
Change from all-time low	94,043.06%
Change from open	-1.04%
Day's gap	-0.46%
Dollar volume	$166.2M
High price	$198.73
Low price	$194.43
Monthly RSI	74.96
Open price	$198.73
Position in 52-week range	51.86%
Premarket change	-0.4%
Premarket close	$199.64
Premarket price	$198.85
Previous close	$199.64
Price vs 150-day SMA	14.46%
Price vs 20-day SMA	0.56%
Price vs 200-day SMA	17.77%
Price vs 50-day SMA	2.54%
Relative volume	0.77
RSI	54.66
Sharpe ratio	1.67
Sharpe ratio (3Y)	0.72
Sharpe ratio (5Y)	0.4
Sortino ratio	2.69
Sortino ratio (3Y)	1.25
Sortino ratio (5Y)	0.78
Volume	844.9K
Weekly RSI	68.18
YTD price change	31.6%
YTD total return	32.28%

Ownership and float

Institutional, insider, float, short-interest, and share-count fields.

Metric	Value
Float	129M
Float percentage	99.26%
Shares change (QoQ)	-2.02%
Shares change (YoY)	-3.73%
Shares held by insiders	0.64%
Shares held by institutions	97.45%
Shares outstanding	130M
Short % of float	5.02%
Short % of shares	4.98%
Short ratio	4.4 days

Deeper analysis on EXPD

14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need

Forecast

Base and Bull forecast paths with report-date return framing.

→

Valuation

Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.

→

Sensitivity

Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.

→

Risks

Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.

→

Earnings

Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.

→

Position sizing

Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.

→

Financials

Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.

→

Peers

Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.

→

Moat

Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.

→

Industry cycle

Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.

→

Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.

Frequently asked questions

About this EXPD report

What is the latest published EXPD stock rating?

Expeditors International of Washington Inc. is shown with Sell in the latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-07. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the dated rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.

Where can I read the full EXPD analysis?

The full latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-07, lives at /stocks/EXPD/analysis. The bare ticker page summarizes that read and links to each analysis tab; earlier editions remain under /analysis/archive.

What fair value is used for EXPD?

The latest published report analyzed 2026-10-07 gives EXPD a fair value of USD 118 and a potential value of USD 128. These are dated research outputs, not live market prices; review the valuation assumptions, sensitivity analysis, and material risks before making a decision.

How often is the EXPD page updated?

The hub selects the latest published stock report regardless of age and displays its analysis date (2026-10-07). Separately sourced market data is labeled with its own recorded timestamp and is never inferred from the report.

SellEXPD · Fair value $118-38.2%

Read full analysis →

Category	Score	Reading
Valuation	1.5
Management	8.5
Balance Sheet	8.0
Profitability	7.0
Revenue Growth	9.0
Risk Assessment	7.5
Competitive Moat	7.5
Earnings Quality	9.0
Capital Efficiency	8.5

Expeditors International of Washington Inc. (EXPD)

Our latest published analysis: EXPD rated Sell

Price

Financial snapshot

Fair-value bridge

Latest news · EXPD

Valuation

Profitability

Balance sheet

Trading

Base and Bull scenarios

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

Scorecard

Next earnings

Sector percentile context

All EXPD indicators

Profile and market data

Valuation

Profitability

Growth

Financial statements

Financial strength

Liquidity

Dividends and buybacks

Performance and technicals

Ownership and float

Deeper analysis on EXPD

Frequently asked questions

등급 이력