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GOOG trades against a final fair-value range of $318.98-$541.63, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $319, high $542, with mid-point at $429.
Stock analysis

GOOG fair value $319–$542

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
분석일: 2026-05-20다음 업데이트: 2026-08-20Methodology v2.4Data cut-off: Quality gate: passSources: all material sources passed deterministic freshness/provenance gatesReview: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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주가
$384.90
▲ +43.84 (+11.39%)
공정 가치
$429
$319–$542
등급
매수
confidence 88/100
상승 여력
+11.4%
upside to fair value
안전 마진
$364.43
MoS level · 15%
시가총액
$4.66T
P/E fwd 26.6
영어 원본으로 대체KO
번역하는 동안 영어 원본을 표시 중
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§1 개요

  • Composite fair value $429 with high case $542.
  • Implied upside of 11.4% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 88/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Trades at a measured discount to fair value with adequate margin of safety.
Fair value
$429
Margin of safety
+10.2%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$384.90Price
Low $318.98
Mid $428.74
High $541.63

GOOG trades against a final fair-value range of $318.98-$541.63, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Monopoly-like scale in digital advertising
    Monopoly-like scale in digital advertising and user search query volume.
  • Deep structural data advantages refining
    Deep structural data advantages refining algorithmic ad targeting.
  • Cycle upside
    Accelerating enterprise cloud adoption and AI infrastructure monetization expanding total addressable market.

§2 베어 케이스

Under severe macro or technological stress, a shift away from link-based search directly targets Alphabet's highest-margin profit pool. The current $91.4B capexCapital expendituresCash spent on acquiring or upgrading property, plant, and equipment. Splits into maintenance capex (sustaining current capacity) and growth capex (expanding capacity). run-rate acts as a fixed anchor, compressing free cash flowFree cash flowOperating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The cash a business generates after maintaining and growing its asset base — the closest accounting proxy for owner-economics. heavily if top-line ad revenues stall.

이 논제가 무너지는 경로

AI Search Disruption

· Medium

Generative AI chat interfaces rapidly gain share, structurally lowering query volume, reducing ad real estate, and collapsing margins.

FV impact
Drops fair value toward the $211.33 trailing EPS anchor.
Trigger
1-3 Years

Regulatory Breakup

Low-Medium· Low

Antitrust scrutiny forces a value-destructive breakup of the ad-tech stack or search exclusivity agreements, reducing structural ROIC.

FV impact
Multiple compression to 15x, wiping out the mature moat premium.
Trigger
2-5 Years

Capex Value Destruction

· Low

Massive AI infrastructure investments fail to generate sufficient incremental returns, permanently impairing structural free cash flow margins.

FV impact
Cuts fair value below the $318.98 bear scenario target.
Trigger
3-5 Years
모니터링할 조기 경보 신호
지표현재트리거 임계값
Deterioration in FCFF or owner earnings per share converging downward to GAAP EPS.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Declining search market share relative to generative AI entrants.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Declining ad-revenue-per-query indicating terminal pricing power loss.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Year-over-year contraction in core operating margin.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Capex to DA ratio remaining persistently above 4.0x without corresponding revenue acceleration.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 재무 이력

손익계산서 — 최근 6기
항목T−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
기간2022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
매출$282.84B$307.39B$350.02B$402.84B+12.5%
매출총이익$156.63B$174.06B$203.71B$240.30B+15.3%
영업이익$74.84B$84.29B$112.39B$129.04B+19.9%
순이익$59.97B$73.80B$100.12B$132.17B+30.1%
EPS (희석)$4.56$5.80$8.04$10.81+33.3%
EBITDA$85.16B$97.97B$135.39B$180.70B+28.5%
R&D$39.50B$45.43B$49.33B$61.09B+15.6%
판관비$42.29B$44.34B$42.00B$50.18B+5.9%

품질 점수

Piotroski F-스코어
6 / 9
0–9 품질 종합
Altman Z-스코어
14.77
파산 위험 (>3 안전)
Beneish M-스코어
-2.64
이익 조작 위험
OCF / 순이익
1.25×
>1은 이익의 질이 높음을 의미
회계 품질 게이트
Pass
섹터 조정 게이트
ROIC
26.6%
투하자본수익률
섹션 3

Numbers analysis

현금 흐름

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

자본 배분

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

개인 구독자 — §4부터11개 섹션 더

전체 분석 읽기 — 11개 섹션 더.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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CASH FLOW FAQ

GOOG cash flow questions

  1. Free cash flow for GOOG (GOOG) is computed as operating cash flow minus capital expenditure. We report both the absolute level and the FCF margin against revenue, with five years of trajectory.

FAQ

GOOG — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, GOOG looks modestly undervalued. The current price is $385 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $429 (range $319–$542), which implies roughly 11.4% upside to the midpoint.

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