Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE)

NYSE: ICE · USD

$156

+0.08 (+0.1%)· Recorded snapshot

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StockMarketAgent Research · Analyzed 2026-09-27

Our latest published analysis: ICE rated Reduce

Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.'s published Reduce conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.

Fair value

$133 / share

Potential value

$153 / share

Upside to FV

-13.8%

from $156

Moat

9/10

Wide

Read full analysis →View archive · 24mo

9-phase methodology · same model in each published edition

Market cap	$86.6B
Revenue (ttm)	10.6B
Net income (ttm)	4B
EPS (ttm)	$7.08
Shares out	561.4M
P/E (trailing)	22.0x
P/E (forward)	18.1x
Dividend	$2.08 (1.35%)
Volume	2,488,612
Beta	0.94

Market data

Price

Recent price action with selectable time range.

Financial snapshot

Revenue (ttm): 10.6B
Net income (ttm): 4B
EPS (ttm): $7.08
P/E (trailing): 22.0x
P/E (forward): 18.1x
Market cap: $86.6B

Item	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5	Trend
Period	2021-12-31	2022-12-31	2023-12-31	2024-12-31	2025-12-31	Trend
Revenue	$9.17B	$9.64B	$9.90B	$11.76B	$12.64B	+8.4%
Gross profit	$5.02B	$5.20B	$5.66B	$6.52B	$7.82B	+11.7%
Operating income	$3.45B	$3.64B	$3.69B	$4.31B	$4.93B	+9.3%
Net income	$4.06B	$1.45B	$2.37B	$2.75B	$3.32B	-4.9%
EPS (diluted)	$7.18	$2.58	$4.19	$4.78	$5.77	-5.3%
EBITDA	$7.13B	$3.46B	$4.92B	$6.08B	$6.64B	-1.8%
R&D	$1	$0	$0	—	—	-26.8%
SG&A	$215.0M	$226.0M	$266.0M	$307.0M	$293.0M	+8.0%

Ticker	Name	Market cap	P/E	P/S	ROIC	5Y rev CAGR	1Y total return	Rating
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ABNB	Airbnb, Inc.	97.8B	37.5x	7.4x	16.8%	+24.4%	+28.5%	매도
ADBE	Adobe Inc.	97.1B	13.9x	3.7x	57.2%	+11.5%	-30.7%	적극 매수
ACGL	Arch Capital Group Ltd.	34.8B	8.3x	1.8x	15.9%	+15.1%	+18.7%	적극 매수
AIG	American International Group Inc.	41.7B	14.7x	1.6x	7.7%	-9.6%	+2.8%	적극 매수
AIZ	Assurant, Inc.	14.1B	13.6x	1.0x	14.4%	+6.6%	+36.2%	보유

Base and Bull scenarios

Base65%

Price target

$133.03

-13.8% from spot

The base case establishes Fair value at $133.03 with an estimated probability of 65.0%, reflecting an expected return of -13.8% against $154.31. Under this modal path, recurring exchange data and listings expand in line with management guidance, Fixed Income & Data Services sustains steady mid-single-digit compounding, and Mortgage Technology experiences a gradual multi-year stabilization rather than an immediate cyclical surge. Operating cash flows comfortably cover guided infrastructure investments and scheduled debt principal maturities while maintaining baseline share repurchases. This path would be disconfirmed if core exchange trading volumes suffer broad-based contraction or if operating expense inflation exceeds guidance through the forecast horizon.

Steady high single-digit recurring growth in core Exchanges supported by global energy benchmark liquidity
Consistent mid-single-digit expansion in Fixed Income and Data Services recurring subscriptions
Gradual stabilization of Mortgage Technology software revenues without rapid origination recovery
Disciplined execution within management adjusted operating expense guidance supporting baseline share repurchases

Bull15%

Price target

$152.64

-1.1% from spot

The upside case projects a target of $152.64 with an estimated probability of 15.0%, representing a return of -1.1% relative to $154.31. This outcome requires a decisive recovery in domestic mortgage origination activity flowing through Encompass and Black Knight platforms at high incremental margins, accelerating Fixed Income & Data Services recurring subscription demand, and sustained commodities derivatives volatility. Elevated operating cash flow would facilitate accelerated balance sheet deleveraging and an increase in quarterly share repurchases beyond baseline levels, aligning valuation multiples with premier exchange peers toward $152.64. Disconfirmation would occur if mortgage software adoption remains flat or if elevated corporate debt service delays capital return through FY2027.

Cyclical recovery in mortgage purchase and refinancing origination volumes expanding high-margin software revenues
Accelerated recurring subscription growth in Fixed Income and Data Services driven by institutional index benchmarking demand

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($133.03). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.

Ke ↓ / g →	2.5%	2.8%	3.0%	3.3%	3.5%
8.1%	$136	$136	$136	$136	$136
8.6%	$134	$134	$134	$134	$134
9.1%	$133	$133	$133	$133	$133
9.6%	$132	$132	$132	$132	$132
10.1%	$130	$130	$130	$130	$130

Scorecard

Published factor rows and weighted composite

Calendar

Next earnings

Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.

Upcoming

DateLoading

Window—

EPS estimate—

Revenue estimate—

Sector percentile context

Refreshed 2026-10-28 19:55 UTC

Forward P/E18.1

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Trailing P/E21.8

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROE14.1

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROIC8.6

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Benchmarks · 1M

All ICE indicators

Market & fundamental data

Available fields

291

Groups with data

Currency

USD

Showing 291 of 291 available metrics for this ticker.

Profile and market data

Ticker identity, listing, currency, market cap, and source dates.

Metric	Value
Amount currency	USD
CIK code	0001571949
Company name	Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.
Country	United States
Country code	US
CUSIP number	45866F104
Earnings date	2026-10-29
Earnings time	bmo
Employees	12,725
Employees change	-81
Employees growth	-0.63%
Enterprise value	$106.8B
Exchange	NYSE
Financial currency	USD
Financial report date	2026-06-30
First seen	2026-05-09
Fiscal year end	December
Founded	2000
In index	SP500
Industry	Financial Data & Stock Exchanges
IPO date	2005-11-16
Is primary listing	Yes
Is SPAC	No
ISIN number	US45866F1049
Last 10-K release date	2026-02-05
Last earnings date	2026-07-30
Last refreshed	2026-10-28
Last stock split date	2016-11-04
Last stock split type	Forward
Market cap	$87.3B
Market cap category	Large-Cap
Next earnings date	2026-10-29
Options	Yes
Price	$155.51
Price currency	USD
Sector	Financials
SIC code	6200
Stock price date	2026-10-28
Symbol	ICE
U.S. state	Georgia
Website	https://www.ice.com

Valuation

Multiples, yields, enterprise-value ratios, and valuation checks.

Metric	Value
Adjusted P/E ratio	20.28x
Average P/E ratio (10Y)	25.77x
Average P/E ratio (3Y)	30.01x
Average P/E ratio (5Y)	28.58x
Earnings yield	4.55%
EV/Earnings	26.34x
EV/EBIT	19.22x
EV/EBITDA	15.84x
EV/FCF	20.95x
EV/Sales	10.07x
FCF / EV yield	4.77%
FCF yield	5.84%
Forward EV/Sales	9.45x
Forward P/E	18.56x
Forward P/S	7.72x
Graham number	91.62569
Graham upside	-40.81%
Industry forward P/E	23.83x
Industry P/E	28.12x
Lynch fair value	$53.06
Lynch upside	-65.73%
P/(FCF - SBC) ratio	18.07x
P/(OCF - SBC) ratio	16.57x
P/B ratio	2.95x
P/E ratio	21.95x
P/FCF ratio	17.11x
P/OCF ratio	15.76x
P/S ratio	8.23x
PEG ratio	1.35x
Price/EBITDA ratio	12.94x
Sector forward P/E	13.61x
Sector P/E	15.65x

Profitability

Margins, returns on capital, cash conversion, and quality metrics.

Metric	Value
EBIT margin	52.41%
EBITDA margin	63.59%
Effective tax rate	23.09%
FCF margin	48.1%
Gross margin	100%
Operating margin	52.41%
Pretax margin	50.49%
Profit margin	38.25%
Profit per employee	$317,328
Profitable quarters	15
Profitable years	20
Revenue per employee	$829,705
ROA	2.17%
ROA (5Y)	1.67%
ROCE	10.31%
ROE	14.09%
ROE (5Y)	11.64%
ROIC	8.61%
ROIC (5Y)	7.61%
SBC / revenue	2.54%
Tax / revenue	11.66%

Growth

Revenue, earnings, cash-flow, and forward growth indicators.

Metric	Value
EPS growth	35.97%
EPS growth (Q)	14.19%
EPS growth (QoQ)	-31.85%
EPS growth 10Y	11.33%
EPS growth 3Y	33.03%
EPS growth 5Y	7.16%
EPS growth quarters	8
EPS growth years	3
FCF growth	13.91%
FCF growth (Q)	28.22%
FCF growth (QoQ)	46.91%
FCF growth 3Y	14.11%
FCF growth 5Y	12.2%
Gross profit growth	8.98%
Gross profit growth (Q)	4.84%
Gross profit growth 3Y	12.77%
Gross profit growth 5Y	9.9%
Net income growth	34.47%
Net income growth (Q)	12.57%
Net income growth (QoQ)	-32.2%
Net income growth 3Y	33.74%
Net income growth 5Y	7.49%
Net income growth quarters	8
Net income growth years	3
OCF growth	13.08%
OCF growth (Q)	32.67%
OCF growth (QoQ)	50.68%
OCF growth 10Y	12.86%
OCF growth 3Y	14.91%
OCF growth 5Y	12.14%
Operating income growth	15.56%
Operating income growth (Q)	7.35%
Operating income growth 3Y	13.58%
Operating income growth 5Y	11.42%
Revenue growth	8.98%
Revenue growth (Q)	4.84%
Revenue growth (QoQ)	-10.45%
Revenue growth 10Y	10.26%
Revenue growth 3Y	12.77%
Revenue growth 5Y	9.9%
Revenue growth quarters	3
Revenue growth years	8

Financial statements

Income-statement and cash-flow amounts, totals and per share.

Metric	Value
Capital expenditures	$-436M
Depreciation and amortization	$1.2B
EBIT	$5.5B
EBITDA	$6.7B
EPS	$7.08
FCF per share	$9.05
Financing cash flow	$25.7B
Free cash flow	$5.1B
Free cash flow minus SBC	$4.8B
Gross profit	$10.6B
Income taxes	$1.2B
Investing cash flow	$-3.4B
Net borrowing	$601M
Net cash flow	$27.8B
Net income	$4B
Operating cash flow minus SBC	$5.2B
Operating income	$5.5B
Revenue	$10.6B
Stock-based compensation	$268M

Financial strength

Debt, cash, solvency, accounting-quality, and balance-sheet signals.

Metric	Value
Altman Z-Score	0.74
Book value per share	$52.68
Debt / EBITDA	3.02
Debt / equity	0.69
Debt / FCF	4.04
Goodwill	$30.6B
Interest coverage	6.88
Long-term assets	$52.2B
Long-term liabilities	$24B
Net cash (debt)	$-19.5B
Net cash / market cap	-22.39%
Net debt / EBITDA	2.9
Net debt / equity	0.66
Net debt / FCF	3.83
Piotroski F-Score	5
Property, plant and equipment	$2.9B
Shareholders' equity	$29.7B
Tangible book value	$-16B
Tangible book value per share	$-28.43
Total assets	$174.2B
Total cash	$1.1B
Total debt	$20.5B
Total liabilities	$144.6B
WACC	8.21%

Liquidity

Current-asset coverage and working-capital efficiency metrics.

Metric	Value
Asset turnover	0.07
Current assets	$122.1B
Current liabilities	$120.6B
Current ratio	1.01
Net working capital	$1.6B
Quick ratio	0.02
Working capital	$1.5B
Working capital turnover	10.48

Dividends and buybacks

Dividend yield, payout, buybacks, and shareholder-yield indicators.

Metric	Value
Buyback yield / dilution	0.95%
Dividend growth	8.33%
Dividend growth (10Y)	11.83%
Dividend growth (3Y)	7.38%
Dividend growth (5Y)	9.52%
Dividend growth years	12
Dividend payment date	2026-12-31
Dividend payment years	14
Dividend payout frequency	Quarterly
Dividend per share	$2.08
Dividend yield	1.35%
Ex-dividend date	2026-12-16
FCF payout ratio	23%
Last dividend	$0.52
Payout ratio	29.36%
Shareholder yield	2.3%

Performance and technicals

Returns, volatility, beta, momentum, RSI, and moving-average context.

Metric	Value
10Y price change	190.39%
10Y return CAGR	12.68%
10Y total return	229.94%
150-day SMA	$151.49
15Y price change	484.89%
15Y return CAGR	13.75%
15Y total return	590.24%
1D price change	0.05%
1M price change	0.16%
1M total return	0.16%
1W price change	-2.54%
1W total return	-2.54%
1Y price change	-3.31%
1Y return CAGR	-2.02%
1Y total return	-2.02%
20-day SMA	$156.58
200-day SMA	$154.52
20Y price change	814.93%
20Y return CAGR	12.63%
20Y total return	979.73%
3M price change	3.91%
3M total return	4.26%
3Y price change	47.58%
3Y return CAGR	15.28%
3Y total return	53.2%
50-day SMA	$157.22
50-day SMA vs 200-day SMA	50over200
52-week high	$176.05
52-week high date	2026-01-29
52-week low	$121.79
52-week low date	2026-06-29
5Y price change	16.24%
5Y return CAGR	4.42%
5Y total return	24.15%
6M price change	-1.53%
6M total return	-0.83%
All-time high	$189.35
All-time high date	2025-08-08
All-time low	$6.25
All-time low date	2005-11-29
Average true range (ATR)	$3.38
Average volume	2.9M
Beta (1Y)	0.44
Beta (2Y)	0.55
Beta (5Y)	0.94
Change from 52-week high	-11.67%
Change from 52-week low	27.69%
Change from all-time high	-18.38%
Change from all-time low	2,371.22%
Change from open	0.69%
Day's gap	-0.64%
Dollar volume	$387M
High price	$155.54
Low price	$153.97
Monthly RSI	50.43
Open price	$154.45
Position in 52-week range	98.09%
Premarket change	-0.43%
Premarket close	$155.44
Premarket price	$154.77
Premarket volume	5.2K
Previous close	$155.44
Price vs 150-day SMA	2.02%
Price vs 20-day SMA	-1.3%
Price vs 200-day SMA	0.02%
Price vs 50-day SMA	-1.7%
Relative volume	0.86
RSI	45.5
Sharpe ratio	-0.11
Sharpe ratio (3Y)	0.56
Sharpe ratio (5Y)	0.14
Sortino ratio	0.06
Sortino ratio (3Y)	1.06
Sortino ratio (5Y)	0.45
Volume	2.5M
Weekly RSI	49.51
YTD price change	-4.58%
YTD total return	-3.59%

Ownership and float

Institutional, insider, float, short-interest, and share-count fields.

Metric	Value
Float	557.5M
Float percentage	99.3%
Shares change (QoQ)	-0.7%
Shares change (YoY)	-0.95%
Shares held by insiders	0.57%
Shares held by institutions	96.91%
Shares outstanding	561.4M
Short % of float	1.24%
Short % of shares	1.24%
Short ratio	2.2 days

Deeper analysis on ICE

14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need

Forecast

Base and Bull forecast paths with report-date return framing.

→

Valuation

Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.

→

Sensitivity

Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.

→

Risks

Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.

→

Earnings

Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.

→

Position sizing

Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.

→

Financials

Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.

→

Peers

Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.

→

Moat

Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.

→

Industry cycle

Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.

→

Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.

Frequently asked questions

About this ICE report

What is the latest published ICE stock rating?

Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. is shown with Reduce in the latest published report, analyzed 2026-09-27. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the dated rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.

Where can I read the full ICE analysis?

The full latest published report, analyzed 2026-09-27, lives at /stocks/ICE/analysis. The bare ticker page summarizes that read and links to each analysis tab; earlier editions remain under /analysis/archive.

What fair value is used for ICE?

The latest published report analyzed 2026-09-27 gives ICE a fair value of USD 133 and a potential value of USD 153. These are dated research outputs, not live market prices; review the valuation assumptions, sensitivity analysis, and material risks before making a decision.

How often is the ICE page updated?

The hub selects the latest published stock report regardless of age and displays its analysis date (2026-09-27). Separately sourced market data is labeled with its own recorded timestamp and is never inferred from the report.

ReduceICE · Fair value $133-13.8%

Read full analysis →

Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE)

Our latest published analysis: ICE rated Reduce

Price

Financial snapshot

Fair-value bridge

Latest news · ICE

Valuation

Profitability

Balance sheet

Trading

Base and Bull scenarios

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

Scorecard

Next earnings

Sector percentile context

All ICE indicators

Profile and market data

Valuation

Profitability

Growth

Financial statements

Financial strength

Liquidity

Dividends and buybacks

Performance and technicals

Ownership and float

Deeper analysis on ICE

Frequently asked questions

등급 이력

Category	Score	Reading
Valuation	3.0
Management	9.5
Balance Sheet	6.0
Profitability	6.5
Revenue Growth	4.5
Risk Assessment	6.5
Competitive Moat	9.0
Earnings Quality	8.0
Capital Efficiency	2.5