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The Coca-Cola Company is a quintessential mature compounder with unparalleled brand equity, a globally diversified distribution network, and immense pricing power. While secular unit volume growth for carbonated soft drinks is sluggish, consistent pricing execution and strategic portfolio expansion into non-carbonated beverages drive steady, high-margin cash flows. Fair value range: low $77.2, high $122, with mid-point at $99.5.
Stock analysis

KO The Coca-Cola Company fair value $99–$122

KO
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
분석일: 2026-05-08다음 업데이트: 2026-08-08Methodology v2.4Archetype: Mature compounderNYSE · Consumer Staples
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주가
$78.33
▲ +21.13 (+26.98%)
공정 가치
$99
$99–$122
등급
적극 매수
confidence 88/100
상승 여력
+27.0%
upside to fair value
안전 마진
$84.54
buy below · 15%
시가총액
$337.0B
P/E fwd 22.5
영어 원본으로 대체KO
번역하는 동안 영어 원본을 표시 중
이 리포트는 아직 번역되지 않았습니다. 번역 대기열이 따라잡으면 몇 분 후에 새로고침하세요.

§1 개요

  • Unparalleled wide moat supporting consistent ROIC (~18%).
  • Fair value midpoint of $99.46 implies nearly 27% upside.
  • Pricing power neutralizes near-term CSD volume sluggishness.
  • Weak OCF/NI conversion warrants monitoring but terminal stability is intact.
Fair value
$99
Margin of safety
+21.2%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$78.33Price
FV $99.46
High $121.75

The Coca-Cola Company is a quintessential mature compounder with unparalleled brand equity, a globally diversified distribution network, and immense pricing power. While secular unit volume growth for carbonated soft drinks is sluggish, consistent pricing execution and strategic portfolio expansion into non-carbonated beverages drive steady, high-margin cash flows.

  • Cycle upside
    Late-cycle pricing capture masks volume softness.

§2 베어 케이스

Secular volume declines accelerate beyond pricing power elasticity, combined with persistent FX headwinds that permanently compress international returns and the terminal multipleTerminal multipleThe exit P/E or EV/EBITDA we apply to the final year of an explicit forecast. Anchored to the business's long-run quality and the prevailing risk-free rate..

이 논제가 무너지는 경로

Health Trend Acceleration

20%· Medium

Accelerated secular shifts away from carbonated soft drinks permanently compress volume growth.

FV impact
-25%
Trigger
3-5 years

Persistent FX Headwinds

30%· Medium

Strong USD and emerging market volatility structurally erode translated earnings and returns.

FV impact
-15%
Trigger
1-3 years

Input Cost Margin Squeeze

15%· Low

Unhedged agricultural and packaging inflation outpaces pricing elasticity, crushing gross margins.

FV impact
-20%
Trigger
1-2 years
모니터링할 조기 경보 신호
지표현재트리거 임계값
Consecutive quarters of declining organic volume.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Gross margin compression below 58%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Operating margin slipping below 30%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Failure to scale Costa Coffee and RTD alcohol.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Persistent deterioration in OCF to Net Income conversion.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 재무 이력

손익계산서 — 최근 6기
항목T−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
기간2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
매출$38.66B$43.00B$45.75B$47.06B$47.94B+5.5%
매출총이익$23.30B$25.00B$27.23B$28.74B$29.54B+6.1%
영업이익$11.04B$12.04B$13.10B$14.02B$14.91B+7.8%
순이익$9.77B$9.54B$10.71B$10.63B$13.11B+7.6%
EPS (희석)$2.19$2.47$2.46$3.04+8.5%
EBITDA$15.47B$13.83B$15.61B$15.82B$18.70B+4.9%
R&D
판관비$12.14B$12.88B$13.97B$14.58B$14.52B+4.6%

품질 점수

Piotroski F-스코어
7 / 9
0–9 품질 종합
Altman Z-스코어
5.07
파산 위험 (>3 안전)
Beneish M-스코어
-2.35
이익 조작 위험
OCF / 순이익
0.57×
>1은 이익의 질이 높음을 의미
회계 품질 게이트
Fail
섹터 조정 게이트
ROIC
18.0%
투하자본수익률
섹션 3

Numbers analysis

개인 구독자 — §4부터11개 섹션 더

전체 분석 읽기 — 11개 섹션 더.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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FAQ

KO — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, KO looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $78.3 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $99.5 (range $77.2–$122), which implies roughly 27.0% upside to the midpoint.
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