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Direct answer
Lululemon remains a high-quality compounder with exceptional ROIC (25.8%) and solid operating margins (20%+). However, a near-term growth digestion phase—evidenced by expected negative EPS growth in the current year—requires anchoring revenue and earnings to realistic lower-single digit growth paths before assuming trend stabilization. Fair value range: low $182, high $282, with mid-point at $228.
Stock analysis

LULU fair value $182–$282

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
분석일: 2026-05-19다음 업데이트: 2026-08-19Methodology v2.4Data cut-off: Quality gate: passSources: all material sources passed deterministic freshness/provenance gatesReview: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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주가
$119.22
▲ +109.26 (+91.65%)
공정 가치
$228
$182–$282
등급
적극 매수
confidence 82/100
상승 여력
+91.7%
upside to fair value
안전 마진
$194.21
MoS level · 15%
시가총액
$14.3B
P/E fwd 9.0
영어 원본으로 대체KO
번역하는 동안 영어 원본을 표시 중
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§1 개요

  • Market implies a pessimistic -4.5% perpetual growth, creating a deep discount for a 25.8% ROIC compounder.
  • Clean accounting and robust cash conversion (OCF/NI > 1.0) provide strong fundamental downside support.
  • Extreme peer PEG dispersion justifies isolating core intrinsic cash generation models.
Fair value
$228
Margin of safety
+47.8%
Confidence
82/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$119.22Price
Low $181.93
Mid $228.48
High $281.62

Lululemon remains a high-quality compounder with exceptional ROIC (25.8%) and solid operating margins (20%+). However, a near-term growth digestion phase—evidenced by expected negative EPS growth in the current year—requires anchoring revenue and earnings to realistic lower-single digit growth paths before assuming trend stabilization.

  • Intangible brand equity
    Intangible brand equity
  • Direct-to-consumer distribution scale
    Direct-to-consumer distribution scale
  • Cycle upside
    Consumer demand for premium athleisure remains structurally robust, and international market penetration accelerates rapidly.

§2 베어 케이스

A severe recession combined with an accelerated shift in athleisure trends could force elevated markdowns, permanently impairing gross margins and compressing ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. toward the cost of capital.

이 논제가 무너지는 경로

DTC Moat Erosion

· High

Upstart competitors successfully bifurcate the premium athleisure market, forcing sustained promotional activity and driving gross margins structurally below 50%.

FV impact
Severe
Trigger
12-24 months

International Stagnation

· Medium

China expansion falters due to geopolitical friction or domestic preference, permanently removing the primary long-term growth engine from the terminal valuation.

FV impact
Moderate
Trigger
24-36 months

Macro Demand Shock

· Low

Prolonged consumer discretionary weakness stalls the men's category growth and causes consecutive quarters of negative comparable store sales in North America.

FV impact
Moderate
Trigger
6-12 months
모니터링할 조기 경보 신호
지표현재트리거 임계값
Consecutive quarters of declining gross marginsMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Inventory growth substantially outpacing sales growthMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Sustained weakness in direct-to-consumer channel conversionMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Negative comparable store sales in core North American marketsMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Unplanned executive turnover in merchandising or supply chainMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 재무 이력

손익계산서 — 최근 6기
항목T−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
기간2022-01-312023-01-312024-01-312025-01-312026-01-31Trend
매출$6.26B$8.11B$9.62B$10.59B$11.10B+15.4%
매출총이익$3.61B$4.49B$5.61B$6.27B$6.28B+14.9%
영업이익$1.37B$1.73B$2.21B$2.51B$2.21B+12.6%
순이익$975.3M$854.8M$1.55B$1.81B$1.58B+12.8%
EPS (희석)$7.49$6.68$12.20$14.64$13.26+15.3%
EBITDA$1.60B$2.02B$2.59B$2.95B$2.71B+14.1%
R&D——————
판관비$2.23B$2.76B$3.40B$3.76B$4.07B+16.3%

품질 점수

OCF / 순이익
1.02×
>1은 이익의 질이 높음을 의미
회계 품질 게이트
Fail
섹터 조정 게이트
ROIC
25.8%
투하자본수익률
섹션 3

Numbers analysis

현금 흐름

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

자본 배분

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

개인 구독자 — §4부터11개 섹션 더

전체 분석 읽기 — 11개 섹션 더.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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MARGINS FAQ

LULU margins questions

  1. LULU (LULU)'s margin set covers gross margin, operating margin, net margin, and free-cash-flow margin. The five-year trajectory is plotted so the reader can separate cyclical noise from secular trend.

FAQ

LULU — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, LULU looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $119 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $228 (range $182–$282), which implies roughly 91.7% upside to the midpoint.

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