Skip to content
StockMarketAgent
Direct answer
MDLZ trades against a final fair-value range of $54.61-$86.01, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $54.6, high $86.0, with mid-point at $70.1.
Stock analysis

MDLZ fair value $55–$86

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
분석일: 2026-05-20다음 업데이트: 2026-08-20Methodology v2.4Data cut-off: Quality gate: passSources: all material sources passed deterministic freshness/provenance gatesReview: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
View archive
주가
$61.29
▲ +8.82 (+14.39%)
공정 가치
$70
$55–$86
등급
매수
confidence 82/100
상승 여력
+14.4%
upside to fair value
안전 마진
$59.59
MoS level · 15%
시가총액
$78.7B
P/E fwd 18.1
영어 원본으로 대체KO
번역하는 동안 영어 원본을 표시 중
이 리포트는 아직 번역되지 않았습니다. 번역 대기열이 따라잡으면 몇 분 후에 새로고침하세요.

§1 개요

  • Composite fair value $70 with high case $86.
  • Implied upside of 14.4% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 82/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Trades at a measured discount to fair value with adequate margin of safety.
Fair value
$70
Margin of safety
+12.6%
Confidence
82/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$61.29Price
Low $54.61
Mid $70.11
High $86.01

MDLZ trades against a final fair-value range of $54.61-$86.01, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Intangible brand equity (Oreo, Cadbury,
    Intangible brand equity (Oreo, Cadbury, Ritz)
  • Unmatched global distribution scale
    Unmatched global distribution scale
  • Cycle upside
    Consumer resilience allows dominant brands to retain elevated pricing even as input costs normalize, driving outsized margin expansion.

§2 베어 케이스

Persistent inflation in key inputs like cocoa, coupled with consumer down-trading to private label alternatives, compresses gross margins and stalls EPS growthEPS growthYear-over-year change in diluted earnings per share. The bottom-line growth rate that drives shareholder return when multiples are stable.. In this scenario, the market violently re-rates the terminal multipleTerminal multipleThe exit P/E or EV/EBITDA we apply to the final year of an explicit forecast. Anchored to the business's long-run quality and the prevailing risk-free rate. down to 15x as structural growth assumptions deteriorate.

이 논제가 무너지는 경로

Cocoa Super-Cycle Exhaustion

· Medium

Raw material costs structurally step up, entirely neutralizing pricing levers and crushing gross margins beyond the firm's hedging capacity.

FV impact
-15% to intrinsic value
Trigger
12 to 24 months

Private Label Defection

· Medium

Global consumers permanently shift to generic snacking alternatives, causing an unrecoverable impairment to organic volume growth and brand equity.

FV impact
-22% to intrinsic value
Trigger
24 to 36 months

GLP-1 Demand Disruption

· Low

Widespread global adoption of appetite-suppressing pharmaceuticals permanently shrinks the total addressable market for impulse consumer snacking.

FV impact
-30% to intrinsic value
Trigger
3 to 5 years
모니터링할 조기 경보 신호
지표현재트리거 임계값
Operating cash flow to net income conversion drops sustainably below 1.0x.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Forward 3-year organic volume growth turns strictly negative.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Gross margin compresses by more than 150 basis points year-over-year.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
SG&A expenses consistently outpace organic revenue growth.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Dividend payout ratio breaches 100% of free cash flow to firm.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 재무 이력

손익계산서 — 최근 6기
항목T−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
기간2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
매출—$31.50B$36.02B$36.44B$38.54B+5.2%
매출총이익—$11.31B$13.76B$14.26B$10.94B-0.8%
영업이익—$3.80B$5.61B$6.67B$3.62B-1.2%
순이익—$2.72B$4.96B$4.61B$2.45B-2.5%
EPS (희석)$3.04$1.96$3.62$3.42$1.89-11.2%
EBITDA—$4.76B$7.65B$8.07B$4.97B+1.1%
R&D——————
판관비—$7.38B$8.00B$7.44B$7.17B-0.7%

품질 점수

OCF / 순이익
1.84×
>1은 이익의 질이 높음을 의미
회계 품질 게이트
Fail
섹터 조정 게이트
ROIC
6.0%
투하자본수익률
섹션 3

Numbers analysis

현금 흐름

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

자본 배분

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

개인 구독자 — §4부터11개 섹션 더

전체 분석 읽기 — 11개 섹션 더.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

모든 커버 종목에 대한 전체 보고서
24개월 등급 아카이브
관심 목록 브리핑 + 등급 변경 알림
모든 언어로 PDF + DOCX 내보내기
무료 체험 시작
언제든지 취소 가능.
FAQ

MDLZ — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, MDLZ looks modestly undervalued. The current price is $61.3 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $70.1 (range $54.6–$86.0), which implies roughly 14.4% upside to the midpoint.

Related coverage

Names readers of MDLZ also follow

Same archetype: mature-compounder