The Mosaic Company (MOS)

The Base scenario represents the modal expected path where FY2026 marks the cyclical earnings trough. Management caps FY2026 capital expenditures at $1.2B, while Esterhazy potash operations maintain low-cost production ($84/tonne cash cost). Through FY2027-FY2028, raw material prices gradually normalize from peak levels ($705/long ton Q3 sulfur), allowing Bartow and Faustina to resume higher operating rates. Operating margins recover from 4.5% in FY2026 to 8.5% in FY2027 and 10.0% in FY2028, with EPS recovering to $1.52 in FY2027 and $1.75 in FY2028, supporting our intrinsic fair value of $19.55.

• FY2026 operating margin represents the cyclical trough, recovering toward mid-cycle benchmarks across FY2027 and FY2028.
• Revenue growth of 0.83% in FY2026 ($12,152M) and 5.3% in FY2027 ($12,797M).
• Reinvestment rate restricted to 15.0% in FY2026 ($1.2B capex), normalizing at 25%-30% thereafter.
• Normalized blended corporate tax rate across United States and Brazilian operations.
• Long-term terminal growth rate aligned with global agricultural demand and normalized valuation multiple.