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NDAQ trades against a final fair-value range of $52.90-$87.67, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $52.9, high $87.7, with mid-point at $70.2.
Stock analysis

NDAQ fair value $53–$88

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
분석일: 2026-05-20다음 업데이트: 2026-08-20Methodology v2.4Data cut-off: Quality gate: passSources: all material sources passed deterministic freshness/provenance gatesReview: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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주가
$91.98
▼ -21.83 (-23.73%)
공정 가치
$70
$53–$88
등급
비중 축소
confidence 82/100
상승 여력
-23.7%
upside to fair value
안전 마진
$59.63
MoS level · 15%
시가총액
$52.0B
P/E fwd 20.8
영어 원본으로 대체KO
번역하는 동안 영어 원본을 표시 중
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§1 개요

  • Composite fair value $70 with high case $88.
  • Implied downside of 23.7% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 82/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$70
Margin of safety
-31.1%
Confidence
82/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$91.98Price
Low $52.90
Mid $70.15
High $87.67

NDAQ trades against a final fair-value range of $52.90-$87.67, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Network effects in core exchange
    Network effects in core exchange listings
  • High switching costs in data
    High switching costs in data and analytics software
  • Cycle upside
    Accelerating IPO activity and strong demand for Anti-Financial Crime and index products drive structural growth outperformance and margin expansion.

§2 베어 케이스

A prolonged capital markets weakness stifles IPOs and volume, while competition in data and technology products pressures pricing power. The market abruptly reprices the expected normalized multiple.

이 논제가 무너지는 경로

Severe IPO Drought

· Medium

A multi-year drought in capital markets activity suppresses high-margin listings and trading revenue far beyond the anticipated near-term contraction.

FV impact
-20%
Trigger
12-24 months

Data Pricing Regulation

· Low

Strict regulatory intervention caps the pricing of proprietary market data feeds, structurally impairing a highly recurring revenue stream.

FV impact
-15%
Trigger
24-36 months

Listing Share Erosion

· Low

Aggressive competition from rival exchanges structurally erodes Nasdaq's core listing market share, weakening its overarching network effects.

FV impact
-10%
Trigger
36+ months
모니터링할 조기 경보 신호
지표현재트리거 임계값
Sustained operating margin falling below 45% post-portfolio reshaping.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Failure to achieve immediate +8.4% Year 2 revenue rebound.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Loss of major corporate listings to rival exchanges.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Decline in recurring revenue growth rates.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Deterioration in OCF to Net Income conversion below 1.0x.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 재무 이력

손익계산서 — 최근 6기
항목T−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
기간2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
매출—$6.23B$6.06B$7.40B$8.26B+7.3%
매출총이익—$2.34B$2.55B$2.99B$3.49B+10.5%
영업이익—$1.66B$1.81B$1.95B$2.43B+10.0%
순이익—$1.13B$1.06B$1.12B$1.79B+12.3%
EPS (희석)$2.35$2.26$2.08$1.93$3.09+7.1%
EBITDA—$1.85B$2.00B$2.46B$3.13B+14.0%
R&D——————
판관비—$420.0M$417.0M$427.0M$424.0M+0.2%

품질 점수

OCF / 순이익
1.26×
>1은 이익의 질이 높음을 의미
회계 품질 게이트
Fail
섹터 조정 게이트
ROIC
9.1%
투하자본수익률
섹션 3

Numbers analysis

현금 흐름

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

자본 배분

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

개인 구독자 — §4부터11개 섹션 더

전체 분석 읽기 — 11개 섹션 더.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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INTRINSIC VALUE FAQ

NDAQ intrinsic value questions

  1. NDAQ (NDAQ)'s intrinsic value is triangulated from discounted earnings at two cost-of-equity levels (strict CAPM with raw beta, moderate with adjusted beta), with owner earnings used as a floor for high-growth names.

FAQ

NDAQ — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, NDAQ looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $92.0 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $70.2 (range $52.9–$87.7), which implies roughly 23.7% downside to the midpoint.

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