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NOW trades against a final fair-value range of $61.76-$148.71, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $61.8, high $149, with mid-point at $106.
Stock analysis

NOW fair value $62–$149

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
분석일: 2026-05-19다음 업데이트: 2026-08-19Methodology v2.4Data cut-off: Quality gate: passSources: all material sources passed deterministic freshness/provenance gatesReview: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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주가
$101.83
▲ +3.70 (+3.63%)
공정 가치
$106
$62–$149
등급
보유
confidence 82/100
상승 여력
+3.6%
upside to fair value
안전 마진
$89.70
MoS level · 15%
시가총액
$105.0B
P/E fwd 20.3
영어 원본으로 대체KO
번역하는 동안 영어 원본을 표시 중
이 리포트는 아직 번역되지 않았습니다. 번역 대기열이 따라잡으면 몇 분 후에 새로고침하세요.

§1 개요

  • Composite fair value $106 with high case $149.
  • Implied upside of 3.6% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 82/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Trades close to fair value, so the margin of safety is limited either way.
Fair value
$106
Margin of safety
+3.5%
Confidence
82/100
Moat
9/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$101.83Price
Low $61.76
Mid $105.53
High $148.71

NOW trades against a final fair-value range of $61.76-$148.71, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Cycle upside
    Rapid generative AI workflow integration drives a new IT spending super-cycle, expanding ARPU.

§2 베어 케이스

If forward revenue growthRevenue growthYear-over-year change in revenue, expressed as a percentage. The starting point for any forward-earnings model and the lens through which scale, mix, and pricing power become visible. estimates drop below 15% without a commensurate drop in stock-based compensationStock-based compensationThe fair-value cost of equity awards (options, RSUs, performance shares) granted to employees. A real economic expense even though it is non-cash., the forward-earnings premium will collapse, exposing heavily burdened trailing cash realities.

이 논제가 무너지는 경로

IT Budget Contraction

30%· Medium

Macro IT budget optimization slows seat growth significantly across enterprise clients.

FV impact
Downside to $61.76 floor.
Trigger
12-18 months

AI Monetization Failure

20%· Medium

Generative AI products fail to offset core market saturation, compressing revenue growth below 15%.

FV impact
20% multiple compression.
Trigger
24 months

Margin Stagnation

25%· Medium

Stock-based compensation continues to exceed 14.7% of revenue, impairing true cash conversion and depressing institutional demand.

FV impact
15% downside.
Trigger
6-12 months
모니터링할 조기 경보 신호
지표현재트리거 임계값
Operating margin failing to expand toward 20% in the next 12-24 months.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Forward revenue growth estimates dropping below 15%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
SBC exceeding 16% of revenue amidst plateauing seat growth.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Net revenue retention dipping below 120% indicating stalled cross-selling.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Free cash flow margins compressing below 30% due to aggressive capital expenditures.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 재무 이력

손익계산서 — 최근 6기
항목T−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
기간2022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
매출$7.25B$8.97B$10.98B$13.28B+22.4%
매출총이익$5.67B$7.05B$8.70B$10.30B+22.0%
영업이익$355.0M$762.0M$1.36B$1.82B+72.6%
순이익$325.0M$1.73B$1.43B$1.75B+75.2%
EPS (희석)$0.32$1.68$1.37$1.67+73.5%
EBITDA$788.0M$1.32B$2.33B$3.02B+56.5%
R&D$1.77B$2.12B$2.54B$2.96B+18.7%
판관비$3.55B$4.16B$4.79B$5.51B+15.8%

품질 점수

OCF / 순이익
3.11×
>1은 이익의 질이 높음을 의미
회계 품질 게이트
Fail
섹터 조정 게이트
ROIC
11.7%
투하자본수익률
섹션 3

Numbers analysis

현금 흐름

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

자본 배분

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

개인 구독자 — §4부터11개 섹션 더

전체 분석 읽기 — 11개 섹션 더.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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MARGINS FAQ

NOW margins questions

  1. NOW (NOW)'s margin set covers gross margin, operating margin, net margin, and free-cash-flow margin. The five-year trajectory is plotted so the reader can separate cyclical noise from secular trend.
FAQ

NOW — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, NOW trades close to fair value. The current price is $102 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $106 (range $61.8–$149), which implies roughly 3.6% upside to the midpoint.
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