Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS)

NASDAQ: NTRS · USD

$172

+1.53 (+0.9%)· Recorded snapshot

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StockMarketAgent Research · Analyzed 2026-10-04

Our latest published analysis: NTRS rated Hold

Northern Trust Corporation's published Hold conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.

Fair value

$166 / share

Potential value

$196 / share

Upside to FV

-2.9%

from $172

Moat

7.5/10

Narrow

Read full analysis →View archive · 24mo

9-phase methodology · same model in each published edition

Market cap	$31.4B
Revenue (ttm)	9.3B
Net income (ttm)	2.4B
EPS (ttm)	$12.7
Shares out	181.1M
P/E (trailing)	13.5x
P/E (forward)	13.8x
Dividend	$3.52 (2.05%)
Volume	619,189
Beta	1.25

Market data

Price

Recent price action with selectable time range.

Financial snapshot

Revenue (ttm): 9.3B
Net income (ttm): 2.4B
EPS (ttm): $12.7
P/E (trailing): 13.5x
P/E (forward): 13.8x
Market cap: $31.4B

Item	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5	Trend
Period	2021-12-31	2022-12-31	2023-12-31	2024-12-31	2025-12-31	Trend
Revenue	$4.36B	$4.43B	$4.36B	$4.73B	$5.02B	+3.6%
Gross profit	$6.55B	$6.75B	$6.75B	$8.29B	$8.09B	+5.4%
Operating income	$2.01B	$1.77B	$1.46B	$2.66B	$2.33B	+3.8%
Net income	$1.55B	$1.34B	$1.11B	$2.03B	$1.74B	+3.0%
EPS (diluted)	$7.14	$6.14	$5.08	$9.77	$8.74	+5.2%
EBITDA	$2.53B	$2.32B	$2.10B	$3.38B	$3.21B	+6.2%
R&D	—	—	—	—	—	—
SG&A	$2.49B	$2.74B	$2.84B	$2.90B	$3.38B	+8.0%

Ticker	Name	Market cap	P/E	P/S	ROIC	5Y rev CAGR	1Y total return	Rating
ACGL	Arch Capital Group Ltd.	34.8B	8.3x	1.8x	15.9%	+15.1%	+18.7%	적극 매수
AIG	American International Group Inc.	41.7B	14.7x	1.6x	7.7%	-9.6%	+2.8%	적극 매수
AIZ	Assurant, Inc.	14.1B	13.6x	1.0x	14.4%	+6.6%	+36.2%	보유
AJG	Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.	66.7B	43.2x	4.4x	6.6%	+15.3%	-5.7%	매수
ALL	The Allstate Corporation	63.2B	5.0x	0.9x	32.6%	+8.5%	+31.8%	적극 매수
AMP	Ameriprise Financial, Inc.	43.1B	11.8x	2.2x	43.0%	+8.9%	+1.1%	매수

Base and Bull scenarios

Base60%

Price target

$166.49

-2.9% from spot

The base case carries an estimated probability of 60.0% and establishes a target of $166.49, delivering an implied return of -2.9% relative to $171.40. In this scenario, Northern Trust delivers on full-year revenue and net interest income guidance for FY2026, achieving positive operating leverage as guided. Beyond FY2026, revenue growth decelerates toward long-term nominal sector rates as temporary institutional deposits normalize, while custody and wealth management fee retention remains sticky. For this path to hold, positive operating leverage must materialize in reported results, while disconfirmation would appear if deposit outflows accelerate before fee expansion offsets net interest margin contraction. Investors will evaluate progress across quarterly earnings releases through FY2027.

Revenue and net interest income expand in line with full-year guidance for FY2026
Operating leverage achieves targeted positive spread over non-interest expense growth
Consolidated revenue growth normalizes toward sector long-run rates in FY2027 as surge deposits exit
Share repurchases continue at a steady pace to support per-share earnings growth

Bull20%

Price target

$195.95

+14.3% from spot

The bull case carries an estimated probability of 20.0% and targets Potential value of $195.95, representing an implied return of 14.3% against $171.40. This path requires accelerating adoption of higher-margin Integrated Trading Solutions and currency management within Asset Servicing, lifting pre-tax servicing margins toward management's upper target band. Concurrently, rapid expansion of Family Office Solutions and custom alternative fundraising across Wealth Management accelerates net organic fee capture, driving operating leverage well above guided levels. Disconfirmation would occur if capital markets volumes normalize quickly or if institutional client win rates slow. Confirmation will be visible in quarterly servicing fee growth and expanding pre-tax margins by late FY2026.

Accelerating client adoption of Integrated Trading Solutions and currency management lifts servicing pre-tax margins
Family Office Solutions expansion drives double-digit fee capture among ultra-high-net-worth families

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($166.49). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.

Ke ↓ / g →	2.0%	2.3%	2.5%	2.8%	3.0%
8.7%	$178	$181	$184	$188	$192
9.2%	$169	$172	$175	$178	$181
9.7%	$162	$164	$166	$169	$172
10.2%	$155	$157	$159	$161	$164
10.7%	$149	$151	$153	$155	$157

Scorecard

Published factor rows and weighted composite

Calendar

Next earnings

Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.

Upcoming

DateLoading

Window—

EPS estimate—

Revenue estimate—

Sector percentile context

Refreshed 2026-10-28 19:55 UTC

Forward P/E13.8

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Trailing P/E14.7

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROE18.4

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROICn/a

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Benchmarks · 1M

All NTRS indicators

Market & fundamental data

Available fields

247

Groups with data

Currency

USD

Showing 247 of 247 available metrics for this ticker.

Profile and market data

Ticker identity, listing, currency, market cap, and source dates.

Metric	Value
Amount currency	USD
CIK code	0000073124
Company name	Northern Trust Corporation
Country	United States
Country code	US
CUSIP number	665859104
Earnings date	2026-10-21
Earnings time	bmo
Employees	23,800
Employees change	500
Employees growth	2.15%
Enterprise value	$45B
Exchange	NASDAQ
Financial currency	USD
Financial report date	2026-09-30
First seen	2026-05-09
Fiscal year end	December
Founded	1889
In index	SP500
Industry	Asset Management
Is primary listing	Yes
Is SPAC	No
ISIN number	US6658591044
Last 10-K release date	2026-02-24
Last earnings date	2026-10-21
Last refreshed	2026-10-28
Last stock split date	1999-12-10
Last stock split type	Forward
Market cap	$31.1B
Market cap category	Large-Cap
Next earnings date	2027-01-21
Options	Yes
Price	$171.89
Price currency	USD
Sector	Financials
SIC code	6022
Stock price date	2026-10-28
Symbol	NTRS
U.S. state	Illinois
Website	https://www.northerntrust.com

Valuation

Multiples, yields, enterprise-value ratios, and valuation checks.

Metric	Value
Adjusted P/E ratio	15.21x
Average P/E ratio (10Y)	15.25x
Average P/E ratio (3Y)	13.79x
Average P/E ratio (5Y)	13.93x
Earnings yield	7.41%
EV/Earnings	18.99x
EV/FCF	100.87x
EV/Sales	4.81x
FCF / EV yield	0.99%
FCF yield	1.43%
Forward EV/Sales	4.8x
Forward P/E	13.57x
Forward P/S	3.32x
Graham number	140.53511
Graham upside	-18.02%
Industry forward P/E	12.81x
Industry P/E	27.36x
Lynch fair value	$156.29
Lynch upside	-8.83%
P/B ratio	2.47x
P/E ratio	13.49x
P/FCF ratio	69.73x
P/OCF ratio	58.66x
P/S ratio	3.33x
PEG ratio	0.83x
Price / tangible book value	2.64x
Sector forward P/E	13.61x
Sector P/E	15.65x

Profitability

Margins, returns on capital, cash conversion, and quality metrics.

Metric	Value
Effective tax rate	24.06%
FCF margin	4.9%
Operating margin	34.62%
Pretax margin	34.24%
Profit margin	26%
Profit per employee	$99,408
Profitable quarters	71
Profitable years	35
Revenue per employee	$392,109
ROA	1.44%
ROA (5Y)	0.95%
ROE	18.44%
ROE (5Y)	12.81%
Tax / revenue	8.24%

Growth

Revenue, earnings, cash-flow, and forward growth indicators.

Metric	Value
EPS growth	48.53%
EPS growth (Q)	48.47%
EPS growth (QoQ)	-19.62%
EPS growth 10Y	11.74%
EPS growth 3Y	34.24%
EPS growth 5Y	14.98%
EPS growth quarters	4
EPS growth years	0
FCF growth	-82.22%
FCF growth 3Y	-46.32%
FCF growth 5Y	27.45%
Net income growth	40.57%
Net income growth (Q)	40.49%
Net income growth (QoQ)	-20.49%
Net income growth 3Y	29.24%
Net income growth 5Y	12.27%
Net income growth quarters	3
Net income growth years	0
OCF growth	-79.61%
OCF growth 3Y	-43.86%
OCF growth 5Y	18.07%
Revenue growth	17.64%
Revenue growth (Q)	12.07%
Revenue growth (QoQ)	-15.33%
Revenue growth 10Y	6.65%
Revenue growth 3Y	11.52%
Revenue growth 5Y	7.86%
Revenue growth quarters	4
Revenue growth years	0

Financial statements

Income-statement and cash-flow amounts, totals and per share.

Metric	Value
Capital expenditures	$-84M
EPS	$12.74
FCF per share	$2.46
Financing cash flow	$6.5B
Free cash flow	$445.3M
Gross profit	$9.3B
Income taxes	$769M
Investing cash flow	$-7.6B
Net borrowing	$-910.3M
Net cash flow	$-686.5M
Net income	$2.4B
Operating income	$3.2B
Revenue	$9.3B

Financial strength

Debt, cash, solvency, accounting-quality, and balance-sheet signals.

Metric	Value
Book value per share	$68.89
Debt / equity	1.19
Debt / FCF	35.85
Goodwill	$707.8M
Net cash (debt)	$-13.9B
Net cash / market cap	-44.66%
Net debt / equity	1.04
Net debt / FCF	31.14
Piotroski F-Score	3
Property, plant and equipment	$444.7M
Shareholders' equity	$13.4B
Tangible book value	$11.8B
Tangible book value per share	$64.99
Total assets	$167.3B
Total cash	$2.1B
Total debt	$16B
Total liabilities	$153.9B
WACC	7.36%

Liquidity

Current-asset coverage and working-capital efficiency metrics.

Metric	Value
Working capital	$-103B

Dividends and buybacks

Dividend yield, payout, buybacks, and shareholder-yield indicators.

Metric	Value
Buyback yield / dilution	4.55%
Dividend growth	8.39%
Dividend growth (10Y)	8.54%
Dividend growth (3Y)	3.85%
Dividend growth (5Y)	3.71%
Dividend growth years	1
Dividend payment date	2027-01-01
Dividend payment years	56
Dividend payout frequency	Quarterly
Dividend per share	$3.52
Dividend yield	2.05%
Ex-dividend date	2026-12-04
FCF payout ratio	143.17%
Last dividend	$0.88
Payout ratio	27.63%
Shareholder yield	6.6%

Performance and technicals

Returns, volatility, beta, momentum, RSI, and moving-average context.

Metric	Value
10Y price change	136.46%
10Y return CAGR	11.97%
10Y total return	209.77%
150-day SMA	$172.13
15Y price change	303.57%
15Y return CAGR	12.57%
15Y total return	490.87%
1D price change	0.9%
1M price change	-2.58%
1M total return	-2.58%
1W price change	3.48%
1W total return	3.48%
1Y price change	35.65%
1Y return CAGR	38.56%
1Y total return	38.53%
20-day SMA	$167.88
200-day SMA	$165.20
20Y price change	194.66%
20Y return CAGR	8.12%
20Y total return	376.72%
3M price change	-6.2%
3M total return	-5.76%
3Y price change	169.43%
3Y return CAGR	43.14%
3Y total return	193.34%
50-day SMA	$176.02
50-day SMA vs 200-day SMA	50over200
52-week high	$195.78
52-week high date	2026-08-13
52-week low	$121.53
52-week low date	2025-11-18
5Y price change	41.4%
5Y return CAGR	10.4%
5Y total return	63.98%
6M price change	2.02%
6M total return	2.97%
All-time high	$195.78
All-time high date	2026-08-13
All-time low	$2.34
All-time low date	1985-12-10
Average true range (ATR)	$3.89
Average volume	1.3M
Beta (1Y)	0.71
Beta (2Y)	1.03
Beta (5Y)	1.25
Change from 52-week high	-12.2%
Change from 52-week low	41.44%
Change from all-time high	-12.56%
Change from all-time low	7,216.03%
Change from open	0.49%
Day's gap	0.42%
Dollar volume	$106.4M
High price	$172.21
Low price	$170.99
Monthly RSI	66.36
Open price	$171.06
Position in 52-week range	73.77%
Premarket change	0.1%
Premarket close	$170.35
Premarket price	$170.52
Premarket volume	400
Previous close	$170.35
Price vs 150-day SMA	-0.54%
Price vs 20-day SMA	1.98%
Price vs 200-day SMA	3.63%
Price vs 50-day SMA	-2.74%
Relative volume	0.49
RSI	52.05
Sharpe ratio	1.31
Sharpe ratio (3Y)	1.35
Sharpe ratio (5Y)	0.32
Sortino ratio	2.28
Sortino ratio (3Y)	2.3
Sortino ratio (5Y)	0.65
Volume	619.2K
Weekly RSI	50.79
YTD price change	25.34%
YTD total return	27.22%

Ownership and float

Institutional, insider, float, short-interest, and share-count fields.

Metric	Value
Float	178M
Float percentage	98.25%
Shares change (QoQ)	-0.93%
Shares change (YoY)	-4.55%
Shares held by insiders	1.55%
Shares held by institutions	86.67%
Shares outstanding	181.1M
Short % of float	2.12%
Short % of shares	2.08%
Short ratio	3.8 days

Deeper analysis on NTRS

14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need

Forecast

Base and Bull forecast paths with report-date return framing.

→

Valuation

Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.

→

Sensitivity

Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.

→

Risks

Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.

→

Earnings

Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.

→

Position sizing

Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.

→

Financials

Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.

→

Peers

Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.

→

Moat

Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.

→

Industry cycle

Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.

→

Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.

Frequently asked questions

About this NTRS report

What is the latest published NTRS stock rating?

Northern Trust Corporation is shown with Hold in the latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-04. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the dated rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.

Where can I read the full NTRS analysis?

The full latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-04, lives at /stocks/NTRS/analysis. The bare ticker page summarizes that read and links to each analysis tab; earlier editions remain under /analysis/archive.

What fair value is used for NTRS?

The latest published report analyzed 2026-10-04 gives NTRS a fair value of USD 166 and a potential value of USD 196. These are dated research outputs, not live market prices; review the valuation assumptions, sensitivity analysis, and material risks before making a decision.

How often is the NTRS page updated?

The hub selects the latest published stock report regardless of age and displays its analysis date (2026-10-04). Separately sourced market data is labeled with its own recorded timestamp and is never inferred from the report.

HoldNTRS · Fair value $166-2.9%

Read full analysis →

Category	Score	Reading
Valuation	4.5
Management	9.5
Balance Sheet	5.0
Profitability	6.5
Revenue Growth	9.0
Risk Assessment	6.0
Competitive Moat	7.5
Earnings Quality	9.0
Capital Efficiency	4.0

Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS)

Our latest published analysis: NTRS rated Hold

Price

Financial snapshot

Fair-value bridge

Latest news · NTRS

Valuation

Profitability

Balance sheet

Trading

Base and Bull scenarios

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

Scorecard

Next earnings

Sector percentile context

All NTRS indicators

Profile and market data

Valuation

Profitability

Growth

Financial statements

Financial strength

Liquidity

Dividends and buybacks

Performance and technicals

Ownership and float

Deeper analysis on NTRS

Frequently asked questions

등급 이력