AT&T Inc. (T)
NYSE: T · Real-Time Price · USD
$25.2
-0.10 (-0.4%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: T rated Buy
A deeply discounted utility-like asset offering an attractive yield with moderate capital appreciation potential as the balance sheet deleverages.
Fair value (mid)
$29.3 / share
$23.1 – $35.6
Upside to FV
+16.4%
from $25.2
Confidence
88/100
Moat
6.5/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: Accelerated 5G and fiber broadband adoption drives ARPU expansion and lowers churn. Capex intensity subsides faster than expected, accelerating deleveraging and paving the way for dividend hikes or renewed share repurchases.
Biggest risk
Accelerated Margin Erosion
Accelerated Margin Erosion: T-Mobile and Verizon drive a vicious price war, forcing ARPU contraction and drastically reducing free cash flow.
Recommended action
Buy
Buy. The valuation dislocation adequately compensates for the debt overhang while the dividend remains secure.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $174.8B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 126.5B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 21.3B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $2.99 | |
| Shares out | 6.9B | |
| P/E (trailing) | 8.4x | |
| P/E (forward) | 9.8x | |
| Dividend | $1.11 (4.41%) | |
| Volume | 36,012,498 | |
| Beta | 0.42 | |
| Price target | $30.5 | +21.3% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
AT&T Inc.T
—Loading chart…
Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 126.5B
- Net income (ttm)
- 21.3B
- EPS (ttm)
- $2.99
- P/E (trailing)
- 8.4x
- P/E (forward)
- 9.8x
- Market cap
- $174.8B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $120.74B | $122.43B | $122.34B | $125.65B | +1.3% |
| Gross profit | $69.89B | $72.31B | $73.12B | $74.83B | +2.3% |
| Operating income | $22.91B | $24.65B | $24.12B | $25.00B | +3.0% |
| Net income | $-8.52B | $14.40B | $10.95B | $21.95B | — |
| EPS (diluted) | $-1.13 | $1.97 | $1.49 | $3.04 | — |
| EBITDA | $21.04B | $45.33B | $44.04B | $54.70B | +37.5% |
| R&D | — | — | — | — | — |
| SG&A | $28.96B | $28.87B | $28.41B | $28.94B | -0.0% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $23.1
- Fair value (mid)
- $29.3
- Fair value (high)
- $35.6
- Current price
- $25.2
- Upside to mid
- +16.4%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | $25.47 | 85% |
| Ddm | $26.77 | 10% |
| FCFF DCF | $99.21 | 5% |
| Discounted earnings | $73.77 | 0% |
| Owner earnings | $135 | 0% |
| Multi stage moat fade | $74.82 | 0% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $2.97 | 0% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$30.5
+21.3%
In the news
Latest news · T
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $174.8B
- P/E (trailing)
- 8.4x
- P/E (forward)
- 9.8x
- P/S
- 1.4x
- P/B
- 1.6x
- PEG
- 1.05
- EV / EBITDA
- 7.3x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 59.4%
- Operating margin
- 21.3%
- ROE
- 18.4%
- ROA
- 4.1%
- ROIC
- 8.6%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 1.25
- Current ratio
- 0.92
- Quick ratio
- 0.52
Trading
- Beta
- 0.42
- Volume
- 36,012,498
- Dividend yield
- 4.4%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: +16.4% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$35.56
+41.3% from spot
Accelerated 5G and fiber broadband adoption drives ARPU expansion and lowers churn. Capex intensity subsides faster than expected, accelerating deleveraging and paving the way for dividend hikes or renewed share repurchases.
- Substantial terminal multiple expansion.
- Revenue CAGR accelerates materially.
Base60%
Price target
$29.29
+16.4% from spot
AT&T continues stable execution. Slow revenue growth, high capital intensity, and robust free cash flow generation support the dividend while gradually deleveraging the balance sheet.
- Terminal growth rate normalizes at 1.5%.
- Forward earnings anchor proves highly reliable.
Bear20%
Price target
$23.08
-8.3% from spot
Intense competition from T-Mobile and Verizon forces aggressive promotional spending, eroding margins. Persistently high interest rates strain free cash flow as the massive debt load is slowly refinanced, jeopardizing the dividend.
- Higher discount rates implemented.
- Margin contraction stems from aggressive pricing wars.
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $29.3.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | 85% | $25.5 | +1.2% | |
| Ddm | 10% | $26.8 | +6.4% | |
| FCFF DCF | 5% | $99.2 | +294.3% | |
| Discounted earnings | 0% | $73.8 | +193.2% | |
| Owner earnings | 0% | $135 | +434.8% | |
| Multi stage moat fade | 0% | $74.8 | +197.4% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 0% | $2.97 | -88.2% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $29.3 | +16.4% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.8% | $34.3 | $36.9 | $40.0 | $43.6 | $48.0 |
| 11.8% | $30.0 | $32.0 | $34.3 | $36.9 | $40.0 |
| 12.8% | $26.7 | $28.2 | $30.0 | $32.0 | $34.3 |
| 13.8% | $24.0 | $25.3 | $26.7 | $28.2 | $30.0 |
| 14.8% | $21.8 | $22.9 | $24.0 | $25.3 | $26.7 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management6.9
Balance Sheet3.0
Profitability6.5
Revenue Growth4.5
Risk Assessment5.5
Competitive Moat6.5
Earnings Quality6.0
Capital Efficiency6.5
Weighted composite
5.6/10
Mixed| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 6.9 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 3.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 4.5 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 5.5 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 6.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 88/100
Target weight
Core income holding. Maximum allocation 5% of portfolio.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$25.2
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Trim position upon approaching the $35 bull case target or if debt reduction stalls.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E9.8
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE18.4
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC8.6
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All T indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
275
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 275 of 275 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on T
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this T report
What is the current T stock rating?
AT&T Inc. is currently shown with Buy in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full T analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/T/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for T?
The latest report frames T around $23 to $36. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the T page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
BuyT · Fair value $29.3+16.4% · Confidence 88/100