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TDG trades against a final fair-value range of $938.35-$1,542.20, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $938, high $1542, with mid-point at $1239.
Stock analysis

TDG fair value $938–$1,542

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
분석일: 2026-05-13다음 업데이트: 2026-08-13Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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주가
$1191.19
▲ +47.59 (+4.00%)
공정 가치
$1239
$938–$1542
등급
보유
confidence 86/100
상승 여력
+4.0%
upside to fair value
안전 마진
$1052.96
MoS level · 15%
시가총액
$66.6B
P/E fwd 25.5
영어 원본으로 대체KO
번역하는 동안 영어 원본을 표시 중
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§1 개요

  • Composite fair value $1,239 with high case $1,542.
  • Implied upside of 4.0% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 86/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Trades close to fair value, so the margin of safety is limited either way.
Fair value
$1,239
Margin of safety
+3.8%
Confidence
86/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$1,191.19Price
Low $938.35
Mid $1,238.78
High $1,542.2

TDG trades against a final fair-value range of $938.35-$1,542.20, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Quasi-monopolistic portfolio of highly engineered
    Quasi-monopolistic portfolio of highly engineered sole-source components.
  • Sticky aftermarket recurring revenue stream
    Sticky aftermarket recurring revenue stream.
  • Cycle upside
    High airline fleet utilization drives relentless aftermarket parts demand, cementing pricing power.

§2 베어 케이스

A severe aviation downcycle matching 2020 shocks combined with sustained high interest rates would expose TDG's extreme financial leverageLeverageThe proportion of debt in the company's capital structure. Commonly measured as Debt/EBITDA, Debt/Equity, or Net Debt/EBITDA.. A 20% drop in aftermarket revenues paired with ballooning interest costs on $30B+ of debt would severely impair free cash flowFree cash flowOperating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The cash a business generates after maintaining and growing its asset base — the closest accounting proxy for owner-economics. conversion, pulling equity valuation below the $938 downside floor.

이 논제가 무너지는 경로

Regulatory Pricing Crackdown

15%· Low

DoD enforces pricing caps or retroactively audits sole-source pricing, structurally crushing gross margins and erasing the aftermarket premium.

FV impact
Severe multiple contraction dragging valuation down to the $938 downside scenario.
Trigger
1-3 Years

Aviation Downcycle Meets Debt

20%· Medium

Macroeconomic recession curtails air travel, slashing aftermarket demand while heavy debt servicing consumes all free cash flow.

FV impact
FCF squeeze pushes the Ke premium up, threatening a valuation drop below $938.
Trigger
1-2 Years

M&A Pipeline Exhaustion

15%· Low

Regulatory bodies block future acquisitions or targets disappear, breaking the inorganic growth engine that internal valuation cross-checks relies on.

FV impact
Long-term growth expectations fade, pulling the EV multiple down and reverting valuation toward trailing averages.
Trigger
3-5 Years
모니터링할 조기 경보 신호
지표현재트리거 임계값
Year-over-year operating margin compression exceeding 200 basis points.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Maintenance capex exceeding 3% of revenues structurally.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Debt servicing costs exceeding 40% of operating cash flow.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Inability to successfully close and integrate accretive bolt-on acquisitions.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Gross margins falling below 55% due to airline pushback or supply chain inflation.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 재무 이력

손익계산서 — 최근 6기
항목T−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
기간2022-09-302023-09-302024-09-302025-09-30Trend
매출$5.43B$6.59B$7.94B$8.83B+17.6%
매출총이익$3.10B$3.84B$4.67B$5.31B+19.7%
영업이익$2.22B$2.92B$3.58B$4.19B+23.7%
순이익$866.0M$1.30B$1.71B$2.07B+33.8%
EPS (희석)$13.40$22.03$25.62$32.08+33.8%
EBITDA$2.46B$3.15B$3.81B$4.57B+23.0%
R&D—————
판관비$748.0M$780.0M$934.0M$921.0M+7.2%

품질 점수

OCF / 순이익
0.98×
>1은 이익의 질이 높음을 의미
회계 품질 게이트
Fail
섹터 조정 게이트
ROIC
16.3%
투하자본수익률
섹션 3

Numbers analysis

현금 흐름

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

자본 배분

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

개인 구독자 — §4부터11개 섹션 더

전체 분석 읽기 — 11개 섹션 더.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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REVERSE DCF FAQ

TDG reverse dcf questions

  1. Reverse DCF for TDG (TDG) backs out the revenue or earnings growth rate the current share price implies, holding terminal value, margin, and discount-rate assumptions constant.

FAQ

TDG — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, TDG trades close to fair value. The current price is $1191 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $1239 (range $938–$1542), which implies roughly 4.0% upside to the midpoint.

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