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WDC trades against a final fair-value range of $142.93-$297.11, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $143, high $297, with mid-point at $206.
Stock analysis

WDC fair value $143–$297

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
분석일: 2026-05-09다음 업데이트: 2026-08-09Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Cyclical
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주가
$480.00
▼ -274.13 (-57.11%)
공정 가치
$206
$143–$297
등급
매도
confidence 57/100
상승 여력
-57.1%
upside to fair value
안전 마진
$174.99
MoS level · 15%
시가총액
$165.4B
P/E fwd 27.6
영어 원본으로 대체KO
번역하는 동안 영어 원본을 표시 중
이 리포트는 아직 번역되지 않았습니다. 번역 대기열이 따라잡으면 몇 분 후에 새로고침하세요.

§1 개요

  • Composite fair value $206 with high case $297.
  • Implied downside of 57.1% to fair value.
  • Moat 3/10 · confidence 57/100 · Cyclical.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$206
Margin of safety
-133.2%
Confidence
57/100
Moat
3/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$480.00Price
Low $142.93
Mid $205.87
High $297.11

WDC trades against a final fair-value range of $142.93-$297.11, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Scale in HDD and NAND
    Scale in HDD and NAND flash manufacturing
  • Extensive intellectual property portfolio
    Extensive intellectual property portfolio
  • Cycle upside
    Current cycle peak driven by AI server storage demands and tight supply discipline across the memory oligopoly.

§2 베어 케이스

In a severe cycle downturn mirroring 2023, margins collapse, revenueRevenueRevenue is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions. shrinks double-digits, and free cash flowFree cash flowOperating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The cash a business generates after maintaining and growing its asset base — the closest accounting proxy for owner-economics. turns heavily negative due to rigid maintenance capexMaintenance capexCapex required to sustain current revenue and capacity. Approximately equal to depreciation in steady-state. Subtracted from earnings in the owner-earnings construct..

이 논제가 무너지는 경로

Cyclical Bust and Oversupply

· High

A glut in NAND/HDD capacity causes pricing to collapse rapidly, driving operating margins back into negative territory.

FV impact
Down to $142.93 (-70%)
Trigger
12-24 Months

Technological Displacement

· Medium

Failure to remain competitive in next-generation high-capacity enterprise SSDs, losing share to Samsung or SK Hynix.

FV impact
Down to $180.00 (-62%)
Trigger
36+ Months

Balance Sheet Impairment

· Low

A deep cyclical trough strains liquidity before the flash spin-off is completed, triggering distressed capital raises.

FV impact
Down to $100.00 (-79%)
Trigger
18-36 Months
모니터링할 조기 경보 신호
지표현재트리거 임계값
Rising days inventory outstandingMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Sequential declines in NAND average selling pricesMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Hyperscaler capex pushouts or cancellationsMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Delay or cancellation of the flash business spin-offMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Competitors aggressively adding fab capacityMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 재무 이력

손익계산서 — 최근 6기
항목T−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
기간2022-06-302023-06-302024-06-302025-06-30Trend
매출$18.79B$6.26B$6.32B$9.52B-20.3%
매출총이익$5.87B$1.39B$1.77B$3.69B-14.3%
영업이익$2.43B$-402.0M$97.0M$2.13B-4.3%
순이익$1.55B$-1.68B$-798.0M$1.86B+6.4%
EPS (희석)$4.75$-5.44$-1.72$5.12+2.5%
EBITDA$3.40B$289.0M$243.0M$1.94B-17.1%
R&D$2.32B$986.0M$950.0M$994.0M-24.6%
판관비$1.12B$807.0M$726.0M$568.0M-20.2%

품질 점수

Piotroski F-스코어
6 / 9
0–9 품질 종합
Altman Z-스코어
12.88
파산 위험 (>3 안전)
Beneish M-스코어
-2.36
이익 조작 위험
OCF / 순이익
0.91×
>1은 이익의 질이 높음을 의미
회계 품질 게이트
Pass
섹터 조정 게이트
ROIC
11.5%
투하자본수익률
섹션 3

Numbers analysis

현금 흐름

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

자본 배분

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

개인 구독자 — §4부터11개 섹션 더

전체 분석 읽기 — 11개 섹션 더.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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FAQ

WDC — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, WDC looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $480 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $206 (range $143–$297), which implies roughly 57.1% downside to the midpoint.

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