선택적 제품 분석
허용하는 경우 개인정보 보호를 고려한 제한적 분석을 사용해 어떤 리서치 여정이 효과적인지 파악합니다. 광고 추적기나 세션 녹화는 사용하지 않습니다. 환경설정에서 이 선택을 변경할 수 있습니다. 자세한 내용은 개인정보 처리방침.
Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. GDR (Preferred Stock)'s published Strong Buy conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.
| Market cap | $281.6B | |
|---|---|---|
| P/E (forward) | 1.0x |
Recent price action with selectable time range.
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $302,231.36B | $258,935.49B | $300,870.90B | $333,605.94B | +3.3% |
| Gross profit | $112,189.59B | $78,546.91B | $114,308.64B | $131,370.43B | +5.4% |
| Operating income | $47,203.49B | $11,936.52B | $38,433.65B | $50,087.25B | +2.0% |
| Net income | $54,730.02B | $14,473.40B | $33,621.36B | $44,260.96B | -6.8% |
| EPS (diluted) | $201,425.00 | $53,275.00 | $123,750.00 | $165,075.00 | -6.4% |
| EBITDA | $86,311.15B | $50,603.08B | $81,064.47B | $97,013.85B | +4.0% |
| R&D | $24,919.20B | $28,339.72B | $34,998.14B | $37,740.39B | +14.8% |
| SG&A | $33,560.96B | $32,678.16B | $35,078.24B | $37,849.25B | +4.1% |
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
The bull case requires Samsung to successfully close the HBM technology gap with SK Hynix within an 18–24 month window — a specific, time-bounded catalyst that either materializes or doesn't. Our $2,628 bull case target is derived from FY2030 EPS of $220/GDR at 18x terminal P/E discounted back at quality Ke of 8.55% over five years. The 15% bull probability reflects the current state of evidence: Samsung has acknowledged HBM3E yield improvements in management commentary, is pursuing AMD qualification, and has the technological and financial capacity to close the gap — but has not yet produced the supply agreement evidence that would elevate probability toward 25–30%. The bull scenario is not a pure optimism exercise; it is grounded in Samsung's $37.7T R&D investment and the genuine technical capability demonstrated in its first-generation HBM products. If the primary catalyst materializes — NVIDIA confirmed supply agreement by Q4 2026 — the chain reaction through Samsung's financials is powerful and rapid. DS segment margins would expand from ~13% toward 20%+ as HBM premium pricing replaces standard DRAM commodity pricing in the product mix. This drives net income from the FY2025 recovery of KRW 44.3T toward KRW 60T+ by FY2027 and generates the EPS trajectory required for $220/GDR in FY2030. The market re-rating from 9.6x to 18x trailing P/E would represent Samsung achieving parity with Micron's current valuation (which trades at 24.8x trailing P/E) — a reasonable target for a company that has demonstrated HBM technology leadership.
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.05% | $2,108 | $2,228 | $2,386 | $2,567 | $2,767 |
| 8.30% | $2,000 | $2,106 | $2,232 | $2,383 | $2,571 |
| 8.55% | $1,906 | $2,013 | $2,127 | $2,265 | $2,417 |
| 8.80% | $1,823 | $1,909 | $2,011 | $2,133 | $2,279 |
| 9.05% | $1,742 | $1,820 | $1,922 | $2,033 | $2,165 |
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
The base case is a steady semiconductor cycle recovery where Samsung participates in the AI memory demand wave without emerging as the clear technology winner. HBM progress is real but measured — SK Hynix maintains market leadership, and Samsung's DS segment margin recovery is gradual rather than step-changed. Our base case target of $1,327 is derived from the probability-weighted forward earnings model: 50% base weight on FY2030 EPS of $145/GDR at 14x terminal P/E, discounted at moderate Ke of 8.90% over five years. The 24% total return from current levels over the five-year holding period represents a positive but modest real return — approximately 4.4% annualized before dividends (adding the ~1.07% dividend yield brings total return to approximately 5.5% annualized). The base case's primary limitation is its dependence on the memory cycle remaining constructive through FY2027. The base case also assumes that Samsung's current HBM market share of ~20% stabilizes rather than erodes, which requires continued R&D execution at the current $37.7T annual level and no further yield-related setbacks. The $1,327 base case target is broadly consistent with a GDR re-rating from 9.6x to approximately 10–11x forward P/E on FY2026E EPS of $134.65/GDR, which is a conservative multiple expansion relative to the potential re-rating if HBM market share inflects positively.
매월 발행된 리서치 판이 부여한 등급입니다. 등급은 분석 시점의 가격을 공정 가치와 비교한 것이며, 판단이 맞았는지에 대한 기록이 아닙니다.
| 연도 | 1월 | 2월 | 3월 | 4월 | 5월 | 6월 | 7월 | 8월 | 9월 | 10월 | 11월 | 12월 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 |
