Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB)
NASDAQ: ABNB · Real-Time Price · USD
$141
+1.03 (+0.7%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: ABNB rated Hold
At $141, ABNB is trading exactly in line with our synthesized fair value; it is a phenomenal business at a fair price, warranting a Hold rating until a broader market pullback offers a proper margin of safety near $120.
Fair value (mid)
$139 / share
$115 – $164
Upside to FV
+2.8%
from $141
Confidence
80/100
Moat
8/10
Biggest opportunity
Successful launch of host advertising and Experiences driving take-rate expansion.
Biggest risk
Global Regulatory Squeeze
Regulatory tightening in key urban markets constraining supply.
Recommended action
Hold
Airbnb is a high-quality, wide-moat compounder trading at a fair price.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | 84.57B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 12.6B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 2.5B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $4.08 | |
| Shares out | 593.5M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 34.7x | |
| P/E (forward) | 24.5x | |
| Volume | 7,842,948 | |
| Beta | 1.21 | |
| Price target | $157 | +11.1% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 12.6B
- Net income (ttm)
- 2.5B
- EPS (ttm)
- $4.08
- P/E (trailing)
- 34.7x
- P/E (forward)
- 24.5x
- Market cap
- 84.57B
| Item | P1 | P2 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
| Revenue | $9.92B | $11.10B | $12.24B |
| Operating Income | $1.52B | $2.55B | $2.54B |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $115
- Fair value (mid)
- $139
- Fair value (high)
- $164
- Current price
- $141
- Upside to mid
- +2.8%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | $148 | 30% |
| Discounted earnings | $142 | 30% |
| Forward earnings | $155 | 15% |
| Owner earnings | $95.00 | 15% |
| Reverse DCF | $141 | 10% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$157
+11.1%
In the news
Latest news · ABNB
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- 84.57B
- P/E (trailing)
- 34.7x
- P/E (forward)
- 24.5x
- P/S
- 6.6x
- P/B
- 11.0x
- PEG
- 1.38
- EV / EBITDA
- 28.4x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 82.9%
- Operating margin
- 20.5%
- ROE
- 32.3%
- ROA
- 6.2%
- ROIC
- 15.9%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 0.33
- Current ratio
- 1.44
- Quick ratio
- 0.75
Trading
- Beta
- 1.21
- Volume
- 7,842,948
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: 4.2% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
190
+34.7% from spot
Airbnb successfully scales new verticals (Experiences, sponsored listings), expanding its TAM and take rate, while maintaining strict cost discipline.
- Revenue CAGR > 15%
- Operating margins reach 28%
- Take rate expands 200bps
Base60%
Price target
145
+2.8% from spot
Steady growth in nights booked as alternative accommodations mature. Margin expansion is modest due to reinvestment needs.
- Revenue CAGR 11-12%
- Operating margins stabilize at 23%
- Buybacks reduce float 2% annually
Bear20%
Price target
110
-22.0% from spot
Macro weakness curtails travel, and severe regulatory restrictions in key markets structurally impair supply, compressing multiples.
- Revenue CAGR < 8%
- Operating margins compress to 18%
- Regulatory crackdowns
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $139.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | 30% | $148 | +4.6% | |
| Discounted earnings | 30% | $142 | +0.4% | |
| Forward earnings | 15% | $155 | +9.5% | |
| Owner earnings | 15% | $95.0 | -32.9% | |
| Reverse DCF | 10% | $141 | -0.3% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $139 | +2.8% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.79% | $160 | $168 | $175 | $185 | $198 |
| 8.29% | $145 | $152 | $159 | $168 | $178 |
| 8.79% | $133 | $139 | $145 | $152 | $160 |
| 9.29% | $122 | $127 | $132 | $138 | $145 |
| 9.79% | $112 | $117 | $121 | $127 | $133 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Customer Value Prop9.0
Unit Economics9.0
TAM & Growth Runway7.0
Competition & Moat9.0
Risk Profile8.0
Valuation Attractiveness5.0
Management Quality8.0
Earnings Quality8.0
Catalyst Path6.0
Macro Resilience5.0
Weighted composite
7.6/10
High quality| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Customer Value Prop | 100% | 9.0 | |
| Unit Economics | 2% | 9.0 | |
| TAM & Growth Runway | 100% | 7.0 | |
| Competition & Moat | 100% | 9.0 | |
| Risk Profile | 2% | 8.0 | |
| Valuation Attractiveness | 2% | 5.0 | |
| Management Quality | 100% | 8.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 100% | 8.0 | |
| Catalyst Path | 50% | 6.0 | |
| Macro Resilience | 50% | 5.0 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
Medium
Confidence 80/100
Target weight
3-5%
of equity sleeve
$120
$141
$180
Quarterly monitoring
- Nights Booked Growth < 8% → Review thesis
Risk to thesis
- Medium - Key risks are regulatory supply constraints and macro travel slowdowns.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E24.5
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E35
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE32.3
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC15.9
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All ABNB indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
257
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 257 of 257 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on ABNB
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this ABNB report
What is the current ABNB stock rating?
Airbnb, Inc. is currently shown with Hold in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full ABNB analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/ABNB/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for ABNB?
The latest report frames ABNB around $115 to $164. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the ABNB page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
HoldABNB · Fair value $139+2.8% · Confidence 80/100