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Archer-Daniels-Midland Company's published Reduce conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.
| Market cap | $38.8B | |
|---|---|---|
| P/E (forward) | 15.6x |
Recent price action with selectable time range.
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2021-12-31 | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $85.25B | $27.61B | $25.69B | $24.37B | $24.96B | -26.4% |
| Gross profit | $5.99B | $7.57B | $7.51B | $5.78B | $5.03B | -4.2% |
| Operating income | $3.58B | $5.63B | $4.94B | $2.96B | $1.87B | -15.0% |
| Net income | $2.71B | $4.34B | $3.48B | $1.80B | $1.08B | -20.6% |
| EPS (diluted) | $4.79 | $7.71 | $6.43 | $3.65 | $2.23 | -17.4% |
| EBITDA | $4.57B | $6.66B | $6.00B | $4.10B | $3.05B | -9.6% |
| R&D | $171.0M | $216.0M | $256.0M | $269.0M | $246.0M | +9.5% |
| SG&A | $2.99B | $3.36B | $3.46B | $3.71B | $3.61B | +4.8% |
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
In the modal base case, carrying an assigned probability of 55.0%, ADM's irreplaceable origination and transportation network stabilizes volume throughput across Ag Services & Oilseeds and Carbohydrate Solutions. Post-maintenance plant restarts proceed smoothly, and processing margins normalize toward historical peer levels rather than remaining at cyclical troughs. Steady execution across human and animal nutrition offsets selective softness in liquid sweeteners, while clean fuel production tax credits provide incremental operating profit. Intrinsic valuation converges toward $71.52, generating an implied return of -11.1% against $80.45, supporting the house Reduce rating given the modest premium to $71.52.
In the upside path, with an assigned probability of 20.0%, global demand expansion across core agricultural origination channels drives an extended recovery in processing spreads. Operational debottlenecking across domestic processing assets successfully reduces fixed manufacturing costs per unit, while structural demand for renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel feedstocks sustains elevated vegetable oil pricing. Robust cash conversion delivers substantial free cash flow, accelerating balance-sheet deleveraging and opportunistic equity repurchases. This operational leverage lifts projected earnings and yields an implied target of $102.17, representing an expected return of 27.0% relative to $80.45.
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.7% | $78.2 | $80.6 | $83.2 | $86.2 | $89.4 |
| 8.2% | $72.7 | $74.7 | $76.9 | $79.2 | $81.8 |
| 8.7% | $68.1 | $69.8 | $71.5 | $73.5 | $75.6 |
| 9.2% | $64.1 | $65.5 | $67.0 | $68.6 | $70.3 |
| 9.7% | $60.7 | $61.8 | $63.1 | $64.4 | $65.9 |
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
De rating die de gepubliceerde researcheditie van elke maand droeg. Een rating vergelijkt de koers op de analysedatum met de fair value; het is geen overzicht van of de inschatting juist bleek.
| Jaar | jan | feb | mrt | apr | mei | jun | jul | aug | sep | okt | nov | dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 |
