Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
NASDAQ: AMZN · Real-Time Price · USD
$273
+1.52 (+0.6%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: AMZN rated Reduce
AMZN is rated Reduce at $271.17 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $215.50, implying -20.53% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100.
Fair value (mid)
$216 / share
$147 – $285
Upside to FV
-20.5%
from $273
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: Flawless execution of AI monetization and uninterrupted margin expansion across AWS, advertising, and core retail.
Biggest risk
AI ROI Collapse
AI ROI Collapse: Massive generative AI capex fails to yield proportional revenue growth, permanently impairing structural ROIC.
Recommended action
Reduce
AMZN is rated Reduce at $271.17 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $215.50, implying -20.53% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $2.92T | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 742.8B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 90.8B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $8.36 | |
| Shares out | 10.8B | |
| P/E (trailing) | 32.6x | |
| P/E (forward) | 27.5x | |
| Volume | 34,752,580 | |
| Beta | 1.47 | |
| Price target | $306 | +12.2% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Amazon.com, Inc.AMZN
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Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 742.8B
- Net income (ttm)
- 90.8B
- EPS (ttm)
- $8.36
- P/E (trailing)
- 32.6x
- P/E (forward)
- 27.5x
- Market cap
- $2.92T
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | P6 | P7 | P8 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-09-30 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-03-31 | 2025-06-30 | 2025-09-30 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $513.98B | $574.79B | $620.13B | $637.96B | $650.31B | $670.04B | $691.33B | $716.92B | +4.9% |
| Gross profit | $225.15B | $270.05B | $300.18B | $311.67B | $319.68B | $332.38B | $345.98B | $360.51B | +7.0% |
| Operating income | $12.25B | $36.85B | $60.60B | $68.59B | $71.69B | $76.19B | $76.20B | $79.98B | +30.7% |
| Net income | $-2.72B | $30.44B | $49.95B | $59.35B | $65.96B | $70.66B | $76.59B | $78.22B | — |
| EPS (diluted) | $-0.27 | $2.90 | $4.67 | $5.53 | $6.14 | $6.56 | $7.08 | $7.17 | — |
| EBITDA | $38.35B | $89.40B | $111.58B | $123.82B | $127.06B | $134.75B | $138.12B | $165.34B | +23.2% |
| R&D | $73.21B | $85.62B | $87.01B | $88.54B | $91.11B | $95.98B | $102.69B | $108.52B | +5.8% |
| SG&A | $54.13B | $56.19B | $55.19B | $55.27B | $55.25B | $56.08B | $57.32B | $58.30B | +1.1% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $147
- Fair value (mid)
- $216
- Fair value (high)
- $285
- Current price
- $273
- Upside to mid
- -20.5%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | $206 | 30% |
| Owner earnings | $283 | 25% |
| Forward earnings | $230 | 20% |
| Discounted earnings | $136 | 10% |
| FCFF DCF | $147 | 10% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $171 | 5% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Ddm | $0.00 | 0% |
| Residual income | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Strong Buy
Price target
$306
+12.2%
In the news
Latest news · AMZN
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $2.92T
- P/E (trailing)
- 32.6x
- P/E (forward)
- 27.5x
- P/S
- 3.9x
- P/B
- 6.6x
- PEG
- 1.60
- EV / EBITDA
- 19.4x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 50.6%
- Operating margin
- 11.5%
- ROE
- 24.3%
- ROA
- 6.8%
- ROIC
- 13.5%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 0.53
- Current ratio
- 1.18
- Quick ratio
- 0.97
Trading
- Beta
- 1.47
- Volume
- 34,752,580
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: -15.3% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$285.30
+5.2% from spot
Flawless execution of AI monetization and uninterrupted margin expansion across AWS, advertising, and core retail.
- AWS growth re-accelerates rapidly due to AI adoption.
- Retail fulfillment efficiency drives record margins.
- Capex normalizes quickly.
Base60%
Price target
$215.50
-20.5% from spot
Consistent but slower structural growth, where near-term heavy capital intensity creates a valuation drag compared to current market prices.
- Steady AWS and advertising growth.
- Near-term FCFF drag from elevated AI infrastructure capex.
- Terminal multiple of 22x.
Bear20%
Price target
$146.95
-45.8% from spot
A prolonged capex supercycle without the anticipated AI revenue payoff leads to permanent ROIC degradation and multiple compression.
- AI infrastructure spending fails to yield structural returns.
- Regulatory pressures compress advertising margins.
- AWS loses market share to hyperscaler peers.
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $216.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | 30% | $206 | -24.4% | |
| Owner earnings | 25% | $283 | +3.9% | |
| Forward earnings | 20% | $230 | -15.8% | |
| Discounted earnings | 10% | $136 | -50.0% | |
| FCFF DCF | 10% | $147 | -46.0% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 5% | $171 | -37.4% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Ddm | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Residual income | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $216 | -20.5% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $249 | $269 | $294 | $323 | $359 |
| 9.5% | $216 | $231 | $249 | $269 | $294 |
| 10.5% | $190 | $202 | $216 | $231 | $249 |
| 11.5% | $170 | $180 | $190 | $202 | $216 |
| 12.5% | $154 | $162 | $170 | $180 | $190 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation6.0
Management7.0
Balance Sheet6.0
Profitability6.5
Revenue Growth7.5
Risk Assessment6.5
Competitive Moat9.0
Earnings Quality9.0
Capital Efficiency5.5
Weighted composite
7.0/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 7.0 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 5.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 88/100
Target weight
Underweight or reduce current exposure given the 30% downside to internal valuation cross-checks and -20.5% downside to our fair value.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$273
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Trim positions on strength above $271.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E27.5
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE24.3
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC13.5
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All AMZN indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
267
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 267 of 267 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on AMZN
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this AMZN report
What is the current AMZN stock rating?
Amazon.com, Inc. is currently shown with Reduce in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full AMZN analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/AMZN/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for AMZN?
The latest report frames AMZN around $147 to $285. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the AMZN page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
ReduceAMZN · Fair value $216-20.5% · Confidence 88/100