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Broad growth across consumer, commercial, international and merchant activities could extend the premium ecosystem beyond FY2027.
FY2027 provider-adjusted diluted EPS growth falls below 8% at the estimate or reported-result stage.
Sell. The report was prepared at $326.16 on 2026-09-04, versus Fair value of $163.91 and Potential value of $238.67.3
The main risk is FY2027 provider-adjusted diluted EPS growth falling below 8%. That would show investment spending, competition or funding costs are absorbing expected gains, weakening earnings per share and value.1
The clearest upside is broad ecosystem growth. Tailored products, travel, dining and merchant links can increase engagement, while fewer shares can turn profit growth into faster earnings-per-share growth.
Cardmembers gain access to integrated travel, dining and merchant benefits, while merchants gain access to engaged customers. Greater participation can improve the offer for both groups.4
Management links broader capabilities and reach to its ability to serve distinct customer groups and integrate more experiences.4
Demand remains supportive if premium engagement and broad segment activity sustain revenue growth. Management raised FY2026 revenue-growth guidance while keeping its earnings outlook unchanged.4
Sell because the report-date price stands above Potential value despite credible business strengths.
AMERICAN EXPRESS CO is a leader in providing general purpose credit and charge cards to consumers, small businesses, mid-sized companies and large corporations. Salaries and employee benefits and other expenses reflect costs incurred directly within each segment, as well as allocated expenses.
The allocated expenses include service costs, which primarily reflect salaries and benefits associated with its technology and customer servicing groups, and overhead expenses. Service costs are allocated based on activities directly attributable to the segment, and overhead expenses are allocated based on the relative levels of revenue and Card Member loans and receivables.
The downside does not require failure. Slower growth, higher funding costs and weaker repurchases can lower value while FY2025 earnings remain positive.
This path would shorten the growth runway and reduce earnings per share without requiring the company to become unprofitable. Confirmation would come through the cited operating falsifiers.
FY2027 provider-adjusted diluted EPS growth below 8% would show that investment, competition or funding costs are absorbing expected growth, weakening earnings per share.1
De vijf ontwikkelingen die onze beleggingsthese zouden verzwakken.
The breach would show that added spending, competition or funding costs are consuming growth before the longer forecast period begins.
Huidig:14.02% expected growth and $20.11 per share as of 2026-09-08.
Waarschuwing alsBelow 8% for the FY2027 result or current estimate.
American Express has a narrow moat. Tailored products, premium experiences, merchant partnerships and scale can reinforce participation on both sides of its network. The durability claim remains conditional.
The moat supports the duration of growth, not guaranteed profit. Its best test is broad segment progress while operating economics remain resilient.4
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
None of the valuation methods used to calculate Fair value relies on a separate assumption about how long the competitive advantage lasts.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($163.91). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $10.5B after modeled capex of $2.2B, with terminal value at 50.1% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
The base path relies on the unchanged post-event FY2026 and FY2027 EPS estimates, with share retirement remaining conditional. A break in earnings visibility or net share retirement would disconfirm it.13
Broad segment growth and resilient earnings would strengthen the business case, but would not by themselves close the valuation gap.
Delivery limited to existing annual estimates would preserve near-term visibility without establishing the longer growth runway.
Weaker earnings or renewed dilution would reduce value per share and undermine the capital-return thesis.
FY2025 net income was positive, while the share base declined. The key question is whether future earnings remain strong enough to fund investment and repurchases together.5
A break would show that spending or funding costs are absorbing expected profit growth.1
Cash generation for a financial company is heavily affected by funding and balance-sheet movements. Positive FY2025 earnings provide a clearer dated anchor for distribution capacity.5
Historical share retirement supports per-share growth, but $59.09 billion of debt on 2026-09-07 makes continued repurchases dependent on earnings and funding flexibility.
No return-on-invested-capital conclusion is made. For this financial company, earnings, equity returns and capital capacity are more relevant operating checks.
Not compared. The enterprise-value discount rate was 10.3255% as of and retrieved on 2026-09-08.
GAAP net income was $10.83 billion for FY2025, published 2026-02-06 and retrieved 2026-09-08.
Positive earnings support capital returns, but do not prove that repurchases can continue through a funding shock.
FY2025 GAAP operating income was $13.80 billion on of $41.30 billion.
| Omzet | US$ 38.361.000.000 |
|---|---|
| Kostprijs van de omzet | US$ 5.134.000.000 |
| Brutowinst | US$ 33.227.000.000 |
| Bedrijfskosten | US$ 25.185.000.000 |
| Bedrijfsresultaat | US$ 8.042.000.000 |
| Niet-operationele posten en belastingen | US$ -2.667.000.000 |
| Nettowinst | US$ 5.375.000.000 |
| Totale activa | US$ 300.052.000.000 |
|---|---|
| Liquide middelen | US$ 47.792.000.000 |
| Vlottende activa | US$ 48.534.000.000 |
| Totale verplichtingen | US$ 266.578.000.000 |
| Kortlopende verplichtingen | US$ 170.806.000.000 |
| Eigen vermogen | US$ 33.474.000.000 |
| Nettowinst | US$ 10.833.000.000 |
|---|---|
| Operationele instroom | US$ 18.428.000.000 |
| Afschrijvingen en amortisatie | US$ 1.777.000.000 |
| Aandelenbeloning | US$ 551.000.000 |
| Overige operationele aanpassingen | US$ 5.267.000.000 |
| Operationele kasstroom | US$ 18.428.000.000 |
| Beschikbare liquide middelen | US$ 70.683.000.000 |
| Beginstand liquide middelen | US$ 40.640.000.000 |
| Financieringsinstroom | US$ 11.210.000.000 |
| Wisselkoerseffect | US$ 405.000.000 |
| Investeringsuitstroom | US$ 22.891.000.000 |
| Investeringen | US$ 2.425.000.000 |
| Overige investeringsactiviteiten | US$ 20.466.000.000 |
| Eindstand liquide middelen | US$ 47.792.000.000 |
| Investeringskasstroom | US$ -22.891.000.000 |
| Financieringskasstroom | US$ 11.210.000.000 |
Bron: SEC EDGAR · Ingediend 2026-02-06 · SEC EDGAR
| Omzet per operationeel segment | Omzet | Aandeel | j-o-j |
|---|---|---|---|
| USConsumer Services | US$ 15,6 mld. | 37,8% | 7,9% |
| Commercial Services | US$ 11,9 mld. | 28,7% | 2,6% |
| International Card Services | US$ 7,5 mld. | 18,3% | 11,5% |
| Global Merchant And Network Services | US$ 6,3 mld. | 15,3% | 4,2% |
Financiële momentopname gebruikt in de analyse van 2026-09-08.
| Periode | Omzet | EBITDA | Nettowinst | Operationele kasstroom | Vrije kasstroom | Investeringen | Afschrijvingen en amortisatie | Aandelenbeloning | Aandeleninkoop | Betaalde dividenden | Netto schuldemissie | Investeringskasstroom | Financieringskasstroom | Beginstand liquide middelen | Eindstand liquide middelen | Kas en beleggingen | Totale schuld | Operationele marge | ROIC | WACC | ROIC−WACC-spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-12-31 | US$ 38,4 mld. | US$ 9,1 mld. | US$ 5,4 mld. | US$ 8,2 mld. | US$ 6,8 mld. | US$ 1,4 mld. | US$ 1,1 mld. | US$ 254 mln. | US$ 4,4 mld. | US$ 1,2 mld. | — | US$ 1,9 mld. | -US$ 7,5 mld. | — | US$ 25,5 mld. | US$ 28,7 mld. | US$ 47 mld. | 21,0% | — | 5,0% | — |
| 2017-12-31 | US$ 24,8 mld. | US$ 8,7 mld. | US$ 2,7 mld. | US$ 13,5 mld. | US$ 12,5 mld. | US$ 1,1 mld. | US$ 1,3 mld. | US$ 282 mln. | US$ 4,3 mld. | US$ 1,3 mld. | — | -US$ 18,2 mld. | US$ 12,2 mld. | US$ 25,5 mld. | US$ 33,3 mld. | US$ 33,3 mld. | US$ 55,8 mld. | 30,0% | — | 4,5% | — |
| 2018-12-31 | US$ 26,6 mld. | US$ 9,4 mld. | US$ 6,9 mld. | US$ 8,9 mld. | US$ 7,6 mld. | US$ 1,3 mld. | US$ 1,3 mld. | US$ 283 mln. | US$ 1,6 mld. | US$ 1,3 mld. | — | -US$ 19,6 mld. | US$ 5,1 mld. | US$ 33,3 mld. | US$ 27,8 mld. | US$ 28 mld. | US$ 58,4 mld. | 30,5% | — | 5,5% | — |
| 2019-12-31 | US$ 28,2 mld. | US$ 9,6 mld. | US$ 6,8 mld. | US$ 13,6 mld. | US$ 12 mld. | US$ 1,6 mld. | US$ 1,2 mld. | US$ 283 mln. | — | US$ 1,4 mld. | — | -US$ 16,7 mld. | -US$ 519 mln. | US$ 27,8 mld. | US$ 24,4 mld. | US$ 24,7 mld. | US$ 57,8 mld. | 29,9% | — | 5,0% | — |
| 2020-12-31 | US$ 22 mld. | US$ 5,8 mld. | US$ 3,1 mld. | US$ 5,6 mld. | US$ 4,1 mld. | US$ 1,5 mld. | US$ 1,5 mld. | US$ 249 mln. | US$ 1 mld. | US$ 1,5 mld. | — | US$ 11,6 mld. | -US$ 9,1 mld. | US$ 24,4 mld. | US$ 33 mld. | US$ 33,1 mld. | US$ 43 mld. | 19,6% | — | 5,2% | — |
| 2021-12-31 | US$ 27,7 mld. | US$ 12,4 mld. | US$ 8,1 mld. | US$ 14,6 mld. | US$ 13,1 mld. | US$ 1,6 mld. | US$ 1,7 mld. | US$ 330 mln. | US$ 7,7 mld. | US$ 1,4 mld. | — | -US$ 10,5 mld. | -US$ 14,9 mld. | US$ 33 mld. | US$ 22 mld. | US$ 22,2 mld. | US$ 38,7 mld. | 38,6% | — | 5,4% | — |
| 2022-12-31 | US$ 34,2 mld. | US$ 11,2 mld. | US$ 7,5 mld. | US$ 21,1 mld. | US$ 19,2 mld. | US$ 1,9 mld. | US$ 1,6 mld. | US$ 375 mln. | US$ 3,5 mld. | US$ 1,6 mld. | US$ 3,6 mld. | -US$ 33,7 mld. | US$ 24,5 mld. | US$ 22 mld. | US$ 33,9 mld. | US$ 34,2 mld. | US$ 42,6 mld. | 28,0% | — | 7,5% | — |
| 2023-12-31 | US$ 37,2 mld. | US$ 12,2 mld. | US$ 8,4 mld. | US$ 18,6 mld. | US$ 17 mld. | US$ 1,6 mld. | US$ 1,7 mld. | US$ 450 mln. | US$ 3,7 mld. | US$ 1,8 mld. | US$ 4,9 mld. | -US$ 24,4 mld. | US$ 18,4 mld. | US$ 33,9 mld. | US$ 46,6 mld. | US$ 46,8 mld. | US$ 47,9 mld. | 28,2% | — | 8,5% | — |
| 2024-12-31 | US$ 38,8 mld. | US$ 14,6 mld. | US$ 10,1 mld. | US$ 14,1 mld. | US$ 12,1 mld. | US$ 1,9 mld. | US$ 1,7 mld. | US$ 504 mln. | US$ 6 mld. | US$ 2 mld. | US$ 2,1 mld. | -US$ 24,4 mld. | US$ 4,4 mld. | US$ 46,6 mld. | US$ 40,6 mld. | US$ 40,9 mld. | US$ 49,7 mld. | 33,2% | — | 9,4% | — |
| 2025-12-31 | US$ 41,3 mld. | US$ 15,6 mld. | US$ 10,8 mld. | US$ 18,4 mld. | US$ 16 mld. | US$ 2,4 mld. | US$ 1,8 mld. | US$ 551 mln. | US$ 5,8 mld. | US$ 2,3 mld. | US$ 6,2 mld. | -US$ 22,9 mld. | US$ 11,2 mld. | US$ 40,6 mld. | US$ 47,8 mld. | US$ 48,5 mld. | US$ 56,4 mld. | 33,4% | — | 8,7% | — |
American Express Company (AXP) trades at 16.5x forward earnings against a peer median of 12.3x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Capital One Financial Corporation, Citigroup Inc., The Charles Schwab Corporation and SoFi Technologies, Inc., as of 2026-07-26 to 2026-09-08.
Management is increasing customer-acquisition and technology investment. The industry benchmark shows capital spending at 2.4% of revenue and 0.9 times depreciation, as of 2026-09-01 and retrieved 2026-09-01.4
Demand remains supportive if premium engagement and broad segment activity sustain revenue growth. Management raised FY2026 revenue-growth guidance while keeping its earnings outlook unchanged.
The cycle weakens if competition raises rewards or acquisition costs while funding becomes more expensive. That combination would slow revenue and reduce profit per dollar of sales.
American Express enters this phase with four material operating channels, but persistence requires growth beyond the consumer business alone.6
No new allocation; reduce existing exposure. The report-date price exceeds Potential value, so the Sell rating supports a smaller or zero position.
Use the earnings, revenue, funding and share-count thresholds as exit tests. Do not offset a breached operating thesis with a larger position.
The report-date price is above Potential value, leaving no support for new exposure under the house range.
The premium ecosystem and realized share retirement are credible strengths, but explicit earnings visibility ends after FY2027.5
Funding repricing, weaker earnings or renewed dilution could reduce profit and value per share.
Sell because the report-date price materially exceeds Fair value and Potential value.
Reduce existing exposure and avoid new purchases. Reconsider only after valuation improves and the FY2027 earnings, revenue and share-count tests remain intact.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Fiscal year-end shares above 700 million would show that repurchases no longer offset issuance, removing an important source of earnings-per-share growth.3
A sustained breach would indicate that consumer, commercial, international and merchant breadth is not extending the premium ecosystem’s growth runway.
Huidig:FY2026 company guidance is 10% growth.
Waarschuwing alsBelow 5% for two consecutive fiscal years.
A sustained increase would make future earnings less valuable because investors would demand a higher return, directly pressuring their present value.
Huidig:9.0111% as of and retrieved on 2026-09-08.
Waarschuwing alsMore than two percentage points higher within 12 months.
A breach would remove the buyback-supported earnings tailwind and show that net share retirement has reversed, weakening earnings per share for a given profit level.
Huidig:675.31 million shares as of and retrieved on 2026-09-08.
Waarschuwing alsAbove 700 million at a fiscal year-end within 24 months.
Persistent slowing would support the view that competitors are raising acquisition costs or reducing pricing and wallet-share gains.
Huidig:FY2026 company guidance is 10% growth.
Waarschuwing alsBelow 9% for two fiscal years after FY2026.
Use book value per share with normalized ROE, cost of equity, and terminal growth to derive a justified price-to-book value.
Discount the explicit dividend path and its Gordon-growth terminal value at cost of equity.
Limitation: Terminal value is 72.5% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
Upside persists if integrated premium experiences improve engagement and merchant relevance beyond FY2027. It fades if growth becomes narrow or investment absorbs the revenue benefit.4
Broad growth would extend the ecosystem thesis; persistent slowing would shorten it.4
A falling share base lifts earnings per share; reversal removes that support.3
A higher required return lowers the present value of future earnings.2
| FY2035 |
|---|
| Revenue | $45.46B | $49.62B | $53.34B | $56.81B | $59.93B | $62.81B | $65.45B | $67.87B | $70.04B | $72.00B |
| Operating income | $15.18B | $16.56B | $17.75B | $18.85B | $19.82B | $20.68B | $21.46B | $22.16B | $22.78B | $23.35B |
| NOPAT | $11.97B | $13.06B | $13.99B | $14.86B | $15.63B | $16.31B | $16.92B | $17.47B | $17.97B | $18.41B |
| Residual cash after reinvestment policy | $11.97B | $13.06B | $13.99B | $14.86B | $15.63B | $16.31B | $16.92B | $17.47B | $17.97B | $18.41B |
| Revenue growth | 10.1% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 2.8% |
| Operating margin | 33.4% | 33.4% | 33.3% | 33.2% | 33.1% | 32.9% | 32.8% | 32.7% | 32.5% | 32.4% |
| Tax rate | 21.2% | 21.2% | 21.2% | 21.2% | 21.2% | 21.2% | 21.2% | 21.2% | 21.2% | 21.2% |
| Reinvestment rate | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
Diluted average shares fell from 736 million in FY2023 to 696 million in FY2025.
Fewer shares lift earnings per share for a given profit level, but future reductions remain conditional.
| Marge |
|---|
| AXP | American Express Company | $220.3B | 16.5x | 3.1x | 34.4% | — | |
| COF | Capital One Financial Corporation | 9.1x | 2.8x | 9.0% | 33.6% | ||
| C | Citigroup Inc. | 10.7x | 2.8x | 8.5% | 36.2% | ||
| SCHW | The Charles Schwab Corporation | 14.0x | 7.3x | 20.3% | 52.3% | ||
| SOFI | SoFi Technologies, Inc. | 20.3x | 5.4x | 6.6% | 18.3% |
| Consolidated revenue growth | Below 5% for two fiscal years. | Exit remaining exposure because the ecosystem would no longer support the assumed growth duration.4 |
