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Upside could last if FY2027 revenue stops contracting, EPS stays at or above $13.43, and operating cash continues covering capex.
FY2027 diluted EPS falls below $7.72.
Reduce. The report-date price of $208.60 sits above Fair value of $169.93 and below Potential value of $244.06. The main risk is FY2027 EPS falling below $7.72, which would signal a deeper trough. Upside requires operating cash to continue funding recurring capex.136
For ordinary investors, Reduce means trim exposure rather than add at the report-date price.
The price-to-value gap makes the recovery insufficient for the central case, although Potential value preserves conditional upside.3
Later FY2026 and FY2027 analyst estimates rose from their July snapshots. A longer upcycle requires FY2027 revenue to stop contracting while earnings hold their forward anchor.1
Reduce because the report-date price exceeds Fair value while FY2027 normalization remains the central path.1
Reduce because the report-date price exceeds Fair value while FY2027 normalization remains the central path.1
Chevron holds an approximately 38 percent consolidated ownership interest in Hess Midstream LP (HESM) following the acquisition of Hess. HESM provides fee-based services for Chevron and third-party customers in the Bakken. The midstream integrated infrastructure is primarily located in McKenzie, Williams, and Mountrail Counties, North Dakota, and Mentor, Minnesota. Outside the United States, Chevron supplied directly or through retailers and marketers approximately 5,200 branded service stations, including affiliates. The company markets using the Chevron and Texaco brands in Latin America and the Caltex brand in the Asia-Pacific region.
In South Korea, the company operates through its 50 percent-owned affiliate, GSC. For instance, the company has received investigative requests and demands from the U.S.
The stress set tests a deeper earnings trough, lost capex coverage, a higher required return, and lower investor willingness to pay for earnings.
A deeper trough would reduce profit and cash after reinvestment, while a lower earnings multiple would compound the loss in value per share.
FY2027 diluted EPS below $7.72 would move earnings beneath the analyst forecast range and indicate a deeper trough.1
De vijf ontwikkelingen die onze beleggingsthese zouden verzwakken.
A breach would place earnings outside the analyst forecast range, implying a deeper cyclical trough and weaker profit and cash generation than normalization assumes.
Huidig:Analyst mean of $13.43 for FY2027.
Waarschuwing alsBelow $7.72 per diluted share.
The cited evidence does not establish switching costs, network effects, distribution control, or another durable structural advantage. FY2025 cash generation is an outcome, not a moat source.
The peer set also spans integrated, upstream, and service businesses. That makes it useful for pressure points, but not as proof of direct margin loss at Chevron.
Any above-normal economics are treated as short-lived rather than structural because the central thesis remains recovery followed by normalization.
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
None of the valuation methods used to calculate Fair value relies on a separate assumption about how long the competitive advantage lasts.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($169.93). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $16.9B after modeled capex of $17.3B, with terminal value at 63.8% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
A quarterly beat matters only if FY2027 revenue also stops contracting.
Meeting quarterly forecasts would preserve recovery, not disprove FY2027 normalization.
A miss plus lower forward estimates would suggest the trough is deepening.
FY2025 operating cash exceeded reported profit, but recurring capex means only part of that cash remained available after investment.6
Non-contraction would weaken the normalization case.1
Operating cash exceeded reported profit and funded capex in FY2025. The remaining free cash supports resilience, but it should not be treated as permanent through the cycle.56
Recurring capex, debt, and a higher FY2025 diluted share count compete with distributions for cash. Per-share upside therefore needs both durable cash generation and share-count discipline.
The cited cash-flow, debt, and spending observations do not establish a dated return-on-capital trend across the cycle.
The evidence does not establish whether returns stayed above the 6.6517% enterprise funding cost across the cycle.
FY2025 operating cash was $33.94 billion, capex was $17.35 billion, and free cash flow was $16.59 billion.
That supports resilience, but only after recurring investment is funded.
FY2025 debt was $46.74 billion, while diluted average shares rose from 1.817 billion in FY2024 to 1.856 billion in FY2025.
Stronger total cash does not automatically produce equal growth in cash available per share.
| Omzet | US$ 67.199.000.000 |
|---|---|
| Kostprijs van de omzet | US$ 36.607.000.000 |
| Brutowinst | US$ 30.592.000.000 |
| Bedrijfskosten | US$ 9.117.000.000 |
| Bedrijfsresultaat | US$ 21.475.000.000 |
| Niet-operationele posten en belastingen | US$ -9.403.000.000 |
| Nettowinst | US$ 12.072.000.000 |
| Totale activa | US$ 324.012.000.000 |
|---|---|
| Liquide middelen | US$ 7.285.000.000 |
| Vlottende activa | US$ 38.552.000.000 |
| Totale verplichtingen | US$ 131.836.000.000 |
| Kortlopende verplichtingen | US$ 33.387.000.000 |
| Eigen vermogen | US$ 192.176.000.000 |
| Nettowinst | US$ 12.299.000.000 |
|---|---|
| Operationele instroom | US$ 33.939.000.000 |
| Afschrijvingen en amortisatie | US$ 20.132.000.000 |
| Aandelenbeloning | US$ 400.000 |
| Overige operationele aanpassingen | US$ 1.507.600.000 |
| Operationele kasstroom | US$ 33.939.000.000 |
| Beschikbare liquide middelen | US$ 42.259.000.000 |
| Beginstand liquide middelen | US$ 8.262.000.000 |
| Wisselkoerseffect | US$ 58.000.000 |
| Investeringsuitstroom | US$ 15.911.000.000 |
| Financieringsuitstroom | US$ 19.063.000.000 |
| Netto schuldemissie | US$ 5.866.000.000 |
| Aandeleninkoop | US$ 12.079.000.000 |
| Betaalde dividenden | US$ 12.751.000.000 |
| Overige financieringsactiviteiten | US$ 99.000.000 |
| Eindstand liquide middelen | US$ 7.285.000.000 |
| Investeringskasstroom | US$ -15.911.000.000 |
| Financieringskasstroom | US$ -19.063.000.000 |
Bron: SEC EDGAR · Ingediend 2026-02-24 · SEC EDGAR
| Omzet per operationeel segment | Omzet | Aandeel | j-o-j |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reportable Segment Aggregation Before Other Operating | US$ 188,4 mld. | 99,7% | -6,8% |
| All Other Segments | US$ 644 mln. | 0,3% | -0,9% |
Financiële momentopname gebruikt in de analyse van 2026-09-08.
| Periode | Omzet | EBITDA | Nettowinst | Operationele kasstroom | Vrije kasstroom | Investeringen | Afschrijvingen en amortisatie | Aandelenbeloning | Aandeleninkoop | Betaalde dividenden | Netto schuldemissie | Investeringskasstroom | Financieringskasstroom | Beginstand liquide middelen | Eindstand liquide middelen | Kas en beleggingen | Totale schuld | Operationele marge | ROIC | WACC | ROIC−WACC-spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-12-31 | US$ 114,5 mld. | US$ 14,1 mld. | -US$ 497 mln. | US$ 12,7 mld. | -US$ 5,4 mld. | US$ 18,1 mld. | US$ 19,5 mld. | US$ 642 mln. | US$ 2 mln. | US$ 8 mld. | — | -US$ 16,4 mld. | US$ 25 mln. | — | US$ 8,4 mld. | US$ 7 mld. | US$ 32,5 mld. | -4,8% | — | — | — |
| 2017-12-31 | US$ 141,7 mld. | US$ 27,4 mld. | US$ 9,2 mld. | US$ 20,3 mld. | US$ 6,9 mld. | US$ 13,4 mld. | US$ 19,3 mld. | US$ 368 mln. | US$ 1 mln. | US$ 8,1 mld. | — | -US$ 8,3 mld. | -US$ 14,6 mld. | US$ 8,4 mld. | US$ 5,9 mld. | US$ 4,8 mld. | US$ 30,2 mld. | 2,2% | — | 5,4% | — |
| 2018-12-31 | US$ 158,9 mld. | US$ 40 mld. | US$ 14,8 mld. | US$ 30,6 mld. | US$ 16,8 mld. | US$ 13,8 mld. | US$ 19,4 mld. | US$ 165 mln. | US$ 1,8 mld. | US$ 8,5 mld. | — | -US$ 12,3 mld. | -US$ 13,7 mld. | US$ 5,9 mld. | US$ 10,5 mld. | US$ 10,3 mld. | US$ 23,7 mld. | 9,1% | — | 5,6% | — |
| 2019-12-31 | US$ 139,9 mld. | US$ 24,3 mld. | US$ 2,9 mld. | US$ 27,3 mld. | US$ 13,2 mld. | US$ 14,1 mld. | US$ 29,2 mld. | -US$ 3,5 mld. | US$ 4 mld. | US$ 9 mld. | — | -US$ 11,5 mld. | -US$ 19,8 mld. | US$ 10,5 mld. | US$ 6,9 mld. | US$ 7 mld. | US$ 18,7 mld. | 0,1% | — | 5,4% | — |
| 2020-12-31 | US$ 94,5 mld. | US$ 10,4 mld. | -US$ 5,5 mld. | US$ 10,6 mld. | US$ 1,7 mld. | US$ 8,9 mld. | US$ 19,5 mld. | US$ 1,8 mld. | US$ 1,8 mld. | US$ 9,7 mld. | — | -US$ 7 mld. | -US$ 3,7 mld. | US$ 6,9 mld. | US$ 6,7 mld. | US$ 5,6 mld. | US$ 25,7 mld. | -7,3% | — | — | — |
| 2021-12-31 | US$ 155,6 mld. | US$ 39,4 mld. | US$ 15,6 mld. | US$ 29,2 mld. | US$ 21,1 mld. | US$ 8,1 mld. | US$ 17,9 mld. | -US$ 3 mld. | US$ 1,4 mld. | US$ 10,2 mld. | — | -US$ 5,9 mld. | -US$ 23,1 mld. | US$ 6,7 mld. | US$ 6,8 mld. | US$ 5,7 mld. | US$ 25,7 mld. | 10,3% | — | 5,1% | — |
| 2022-12-31 | US$ 235,7 mld. | US$ 66,5 mld. | US$ 35,5 mld. | US$ 49,6 mld. | US$ 37,6 mld. | US$ 12 mld. | US$ 16,3 mld. | US$ 5,8 mld. | US$ 11,3 mld. | US$ 11 mld. | -US$ 8,5 mld. | -US$ 12,1 mld. | -US$ 25 mld. | US$ 6,8 mld. | US$ 19,1 mld. | US$ 17,9 mld. | US$ 23,3 mld. | 21,3% | — | 7,0% | — |
| 2023-12-31 | US$ 196,9 mld. | US$ 47,8 mld. | US$ 21,4 mld. | US$ 35,6 mld. | US$ 19,8 mld. | US$ 15,8 mld. | US$ 17,3 mld. | US$ 85 mln. | US$ 14,9 mld. | US$ 11,3 mld. | -US$ 4,1 mld. | -US$ 15,2 mld. | -US$ 30,1 mld. | US$ 19,1 mld. | US$ 9,3 mld. | US$ 8,2 mld. | US$ 20,8 mld. | 17,2% | — | 6,9% | — |
| 2024-12-31 | US$ 193,4 mld. | US$ 45,8 mld. | US$ 17,7 mld. | US$ 31,5 mld. | US$ 15 mld. | US$ 16,4 mld. | US$ 17,3 mld. | US$ 300K | US$ 15,2 mld. | US$ 11,8 mld. | US$ 3,6 mld. | -US$ 8,9 mld. | -US$ 23,5 mld. | US$ 9,3 mld. | US$ 8,3 mld. | US$ 8,3 mld. | US$ 24,5 mld. | 15,0% | — | 7,5% | — |
| 2025-12-31 | US$ 184,4 mld. | US$ 41,4 mld. | US$ 12,3 mld. | US$ 33,9 mld. | US$ 16,6 mld. | US$ 17,3 mld. | US$ 20,1 mld. | US$ 400K | US$ 12,1 mld. | US$ 12,8 mld. | US$ 5,9 mld. | -US$ 15,9 mld. | -US$ 19,1 mld. | US$ 8,3 mld. | US$ 7,3 mld. | US$ 7,3 mld. | US$ 46,7 mld. | 9,0% | — | 5,2% | — |
Chevron Corporation (CVX) trades at 15.8x forward earnings against a peer median of 14.5x. Its EV/EBITDA of 8.8x compares with a peer median of 8.4x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Exxon Mobil Corporation, ConocoPhillips, Diamondback Energy Inc. and Baker Hughes Company, as of 2026-09-07 to 2026-09-08.
Industry capex equals 0.4% of revenue and 1.02 times depreciation in the dated benchmark.
Later FY2026 and FY2027 analyst estimates rose from their July snapshots. A longer upcycle requires FY2027 revenue to stop contracting while earnings hold their forward anchor.
The annual path shifts from 23.79% FY2026 revenue growth to a 6.89% FY2027 decline, with FY2027 EPS also contracting.
Chevron entered the cycle with FY2025 operating cash above capex, but the annual forecast still points to normalization after the rebound.16
Smaller than a normal position; no increase. The report-date price exceeds Fair value, while FY2027 estimates remain widely dispersed.13
Keep exposure below normal and use the stated earnings and cash breaches as mandatory reduction points.
Avoid maintaining full exposure; trim because the report-date price exceeds Fair value.3
Do not initiate while the central value remains below the report-date price.
Avoid relying on distributions alone because recurring capex absorbs operating cash before it reaches shareholders.6
Fair value is below the report-date price despite a conditional upside tail.3
The recovery is credible, but the FY2027 reversal and recurring investment limit its expected duration.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
A strict equity return requirement above 9.0393% would lower the present value of long-dated cash flows.2
A terminal P/E below 12x would mean investors pay less for each dollar of normalized earnings.
Huidig:$33.94 billion in FY2025.
Waarschuwing alsBelow $17.35 billion over a full fiscal year.
A higher required return would reduce the present worth of long-dated cash flows, especially where value depends heavily on periods beyond the explicit forecast.
Huidig:7.0393% on 2026-09-08.
Waarschuwing alsAbove 9.0393%.
If investors pay less for each dollar of future earnings, even a profit recovery would translate into less value per share and a weaker valuation anchor.
Huidig:Base assumption of 15x.
Waarschuwing alsBelow 12x forward earnings.
Weakness in the main disclosed aggregation would flow into consolidated sales, profit, and cash because the separately disclosed all-other line provides little offset.
Huidig:$188.39 billion in FY2025; all-other revenue was $644 million.
Waarschuwing alsA full-year aggregation decline while all-other revenue remains below 10% of consolidated revenue.
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and terminal value at WACC, then adjust for signed net debt per current share.
Limitation: Terminal value is 63.8% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
Upward revisions would need to broaden beyond the near-term rebound. The case fades if earnings weaken or recurring investment absorbs more operating cash.16
The range shows how deep the trough could become.1
| $216.83B |
| $221.17B |
| $225.59B |
| Operating income | $25.95B | $24.16B | $24.64B | $25.13B | $25.64B |
| NOPAT | $17.40B | $16.21B | $16.53B | $16.86B | $17.20B |
| Residual cash after reinvestment policy | $17.40B | $16.21B | $16.53B | $16.86B | $17.20B |
| Revenue growth | 23.8% | -6.9% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| Operating margin | 11.4% | 11.4% | 11.4% | 11.4% | 11.4% |
| Tax rate | 32.9% | 32.9% | 32.9% | 32.9% | 32.9% |
| Reinvestment rate | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Terminal growth | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| Marge |
|---|
| CVX | Chevron Corporation | $409.2B | 15.8x | 2.0x | 8.8x | 12.2% | — |
| XOM | Exxon Mobil Corporation | 14.8x | 1.8x | 10.2x | 12.6% | 15.9% | |
| COP | ConocoPhillips | 14.1x | 2.5x | 6.6x | 14.2% | 31.5% | |
| FANG | Diamondback Energy Inc. | 11.0x | 3.4x | 6.3x | 3.5% | 48.5% | |
| BKR | Baker Hughes Company | 20.1x | 2.3x | 12.9x | 16.5% | 12.8% |
| Below the $57.15 billion analyst forecast. |
| Reduce further if FY2027 revenue estimates also decline.1 |
