EMR trades against a final fair-value range of $88.69-$155.92, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $88.7, high $156, with mid-point at $122.
Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$122
Margin of safety
-12.3%
Confidence
87/100
Moat
9/10
Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.
$137.28Price
Low $88.69
Mid $122.21
High $155.92
EMR trades against a final fair-value range of $88.69-$155.92, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.
High switching costs associated with
High switching costs associated with mission-critical process automation platforms like DeltaV.
Sticky, high-margin software and service
Sticky, high-margin software and service recurring revenue base.
Bull thesis
Reduce-side internal valuation cross-checks ($164.87) aggressively prices in perfect execution of the M&A synergy playbook and permanent retention of 24.2% outlier margins.
Free cash flow for EMR (EMR) is computed as operating cash flow minus capital expenditure. We report both the absolute level and the FCF margin against revenue, with five years of trajectory.
Operating cash flow is the primary signal: when OCF is negative or significantly below net income, the cash-flow subsection flags the divergence and traces the cause to working-capital, deferred-revenue, or earnings-quality effects.
Capital expenditure is reported as a percentage of revenue alongside the absolute number. Heavy investment phases are separated from harvesting phases so reinvestment intent is legible.
The financing activity row tracks dividends paid, share repurchases, and net debt issuance. Together with FCF, it answers whether buybacks and dividends are funded organically or by issuing debt.
FAQ
EMR — frequently asked questions
Based on our latest analysis, EMR screens modestly overvalued. The current price is $137 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $122 (range $88.7–$156), which implies roughly 11.0% downside to the midpoint.
Our composite fair-value range for EMR is $88.7–$156, with a midpoint of $122. The range is triangulated across multiple valuation models (discounted earnings, forward earnings scenarios, peer multiples, and where applicable owner earnings or reverse DCF) and weighted by reliability for EMR's archetype.
Our current rating for EMR is Reduce with a confidence score of 87/100. EMR is rated Reduce at $137.28 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $122.21, implying -10.98% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 87/100. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
The top risks our latest report flags for EMR are: M&A Value Destruction; Automation CAPEX Freeze; Margin Reversion. The single biggest risk is M&A Value Destruction: Failure to extract synergies from recent software acquisitions causes ROIC to stagnate below WACC, driven by the $18B goodwill burden.
Our current rating for EMR is Reduce, issued with a confidence score of 87/100 and a moat score of 9/10. The rating reflects the composite fair-value range ($88.7–$156) versus the current price of $137.
EMR is classified as a mature compounder stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for EMR.
