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HUBS trades against a final fair-value range of $34.65-$61.51, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $34.6, high $61.5, with mid-point at $47.9.
Stock analysis

HUBS HUBS fair value $35–$62

HUBS
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Geanalyseerd: 2026-05-10Volgende update: 2026-08-10Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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Koers
$197.34
▼ -149.47 (-75.74%)
Fair value
$48
$35–$62
Beoordeling
Verkopen
confidence 59/100
Opwaarts potentieel
-75.7%
upside to fair value
Veiligheidsmarge
$40.69
MoS level · 15%
Marktkapitalisatie
$10.1B
P/E fwd 12.7
Engelse bronNL
Engelse bron wordt weergegeven terwijl we vertalen
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§1 Samenvatting

  • Composite fair value $48 with high case $62.
  • Implied downside of 75.7% to fair value.
  • Moat 6.5/10 · confidence 59/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$48
Margin of safety
-312.2%
Confidence
59/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$197.34Price
Low $34.65
Mid $47.87
High $61.51

HUBS trades against a final fair-value range of $34.65-$61.51, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • High switching costs driven by
    High switching costs driven by deep operational integration across marketing, sales, and service hubs.
  • Comprehensive all-in-one ecosystem tailored for
    Comprehensive all-in-one ecosystem tailored for the mid-market and SMB demographic.
  • Bull thesis
    Contrarian reality: The market is severely mispricing structural FCF limits and ignoring real shareholder dilution.

§2 Berenscenario

A sustained 20% drop in SMB IT spend coupled with stagnant enterprise migration severely pressures the 20% long-term operating marginOperating marginOperating income (EBIT) divided by revenue. Captures profitability after both direct costs and operating expenses but before interest, tax, and non-operating items. target, leading to rapid multiple contraction.

Hoe deze these kan breken

SMB Macroeconomic Collapse

· Medium

A severe recession drives mass insolvency and seat reductions among core SMB customers, devastating revenue and driving massive structural churn.

FV impact
Severe
Trigger
1-2 years

Enterprise Penetration Failure

· High

Failure to gain sustained traction upmarket caps growth rates while the legacy SMB segment saturates, permanently stalling margin expansion.

FV impact
High
Trigger
2-3 years

SBC Dilution Spirals

· Medium

Stock-based compensation burden grows unchecked without commensurate core free cash flow growth, severely diluting existing shareholders.

FV impact
High
Trigger
3-5 years
Vroege waarschuwingssignalen om te volgen
MetriekHuidigTrigger-drempel
Sustained deceleration in total net-new customer logo additions.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Reversal in ARPU trends as seat downgrades and discounting accelerate.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Stock-based compensation as a percentage of revenue exceeding 20%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Core gross margin compression structurally falling below 80%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Failure to clear interim 10% GAAP operating margin targets.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Financiële historie

Winst-en-verliesrekening — laatste zes perioden
PostT−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
Periode2022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Omzet$1.73B$2.17B$2.63B$3.13B+21.8%
Brutowinst$1.42B$1.83B$2.23B$2.62B+22.6%
Bedrijfsresultaat$-102.9M$-104.1M$-63.6M$11.4M—
Nettowinst$-107.3M$-164.5M$4.6M$45.9M—
WPA (verwaterd)$-2.35$-3.30$0.09$0.86—
EBITDA$-36.5M$-74.1M$129.2M$206.6M—
R&D$442.0M$617.7M$778.7M$905.9M+27.0%
VAA$1.08B$1.32B$1.52B$1.71B+16.3%

Kwaliteitsscores

Piotroski F-score
6 / 9
0–9 kwaliteitscomposiet
Altman Z-score
4.3
Faillissementsrisico (>3 veilig)
Beneish M-score
-3.01
Risico op winstmanipulatie
OCF / Nettowinst
16.57×
>1 wijst op hoge winstkwaliteit
Drempel boekhoudkwaliteit
Pass
Sector-aangepaste drempel
ROIC
2.4%
Rendement op geïnvesteerd kapitaal
Sectie 3

Numbers analysis

Kasstroom

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Kapitaalallocatie

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Individuele abonnees — vanaf §411 extra secties

Lees de volledige analyse — 11 extra secties.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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FAQ

HUBS — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, HUBS looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $197 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $47.9 (range $34.6–$61.5), which implies roughly 75.7% downside to the midpoint.

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