International Paper Company (IP)

The base case models steady execution of the operational transformation, where realized packaging price improvements and mill footprint optimizations support normalized profitability. At a target of $41.80 and an assigned probability of 55.0%, this path offers an expected return of 30.1% relative to $32.12.

• Operational turnaround achieves projected mill cost savings and stable box pricing.
• EMEA packaging segment delivers guided second-half profit step-up.
• Disciplined industry capital allocation prevents destructive capacity additions.