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CarMax, Inc.'s published Sell conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.
| Market cap | $7.1B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 29.5B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 292.4M | |
| EPS (ttm) | $2.05 | |
| Shares out | 141.9M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 26.3x | |
| P/E (forward) | 21.6x | |
| Volume | 1,299,400 | |
| Beta | 1.23 |
Recent price action with selectable time range.
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-02-28 | 2023-02-28 | 2024-02-29 | 2025-02-28 | 2026-02-28 | Trend |
| Revenue | $31.90B | $29.68B | $26.54B | $26.35B | $25.88B | -5.1% |
| Gross profit | $3.29B | $2.80B | $2.71B | $2.90B | $2.81B | -3.9% |
| Operating income | $1.82B | $1.07B | $1.41B | $1.54B | $1.26B | -8.7% |
| Net income | $1.15B | $484.8M | $479.2M | $500.6M | $247.3M | -31.9% |
| EPS (diluted) | $6.97 | $3.03 | $3.02 | $3.21 | $1.68 | -29.9% |
| EBITDA | $2.09B | $1.33B | $1.67B | $1.84B | $1.61B | -6.3% |
| R&D | $5.7M | $13.2M | $52.9M | — | — | +205.5% |
| SG&A | $2.33B | $2.49B | $2.29B | $2.44B | $2.45B | +1.4% |
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
The bull case delivers a target of $46.09 with an estimated upside return of -7.5%, carrying a probability of 20.0%. In this scenario, retail comparable store sales accelerate substantially ahead of the broader automotive industry, while nationwide logistics reconditioning hubs achieve significant scale efficiencies that expand operating margins toward peak historical compounder levels. CarMax Auto Finance penetration rebounds as consumer lending costs ease. Disconfirmation would occur if wholesale auction volumes stall or if dealer fee transparency fails to drive incremental customer market share, verifiable over four quarters.
Under the base case, CarMax's fair value target of $38.78 reflects an implied return of -22.2% from the analysis price of $49.82. This outcome assumes that used vehicle retail volume continues to expand at a moderate pace, supported by dynamic pricing algorithm refinements and extended protection plan growth. Operating margins normalize gradually as Shift into GEAR inventory productivity balances freight logistics costs. Disconfirmation would occur if retail comparable sales turn negative or if retail gross profit per unit contracts faster than guided, which would become visible within two quarters.
| Ke ↓ / g → | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.3% | $41.1 | $41.6 | $42.1 | $42.7 | $43.3 |
| 9.8% | $39.5 | $39.9 | $40.4 | $40.8 | $41.3 |
| 10.3% | $38.0 | $38.4 | $38.8 | $39.2 | $39.6 |
| 10.8% | $36.7 | $37.0 | $37.4 | $37.7 | $38.1 |
| 11.3% | $35.5 | $35.8 | $36.0 | $36.4 | $36.7 |
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
De rating die de gepubliceerde researcheditie van elke maand droeg. Een rating vergelijkt de koers op de analysedatum met de fair value; het is geen overzicht van of de inschatting juist bleek.
| Jaar | jan | feb | mrt | apr | mei | jun | jul | aug | sep | okt | nov | dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 |
