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Bull: Atlas growth accelerates as AI drives demand for unstructured data storage.
Hyperscaler Commoditization: AWS and Azure successfully migrate new workloads to native document databases, stalling Atlas growth.
MongoDB is a leading NoSQL database provider benefiting from a secular shift to document-based data and cloud workloads via Atlas. Despite current GAAP unprofitability, it shows strong FCF and a clear path to operating leverage.
MongoDB is a leading NoSQL database provider benefiting from a secular shift to document-based data and cloud workloads via Atlas. Despite current GAAP unprofitability, it shows strong FCF and a clear path to operating leverage.
High switching costs for embedded core databases
Network effects within developer ecosystems
Cloud migration and AI-driven unstructured data generation accelerate NoSQL adoption.
Hold. Current valuation fully prices in Atlas momentum while ignoring heavy SBC dilution.
MongoDB, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides general purpose database platform worldwide. The company offers MongoDB Atlas, a hosted multi-cloud database-as-a-service solution; MongoDB Enterprise Advanced, a commercial database server for enterprise customers to run in the cloud, on-premises, or in a hybrid environment; and Community Server, a free-to-download version of its database, which includes the functionality that developers need to get started with MongoDB. It offers professional services comprising consulting and training. The company was formerly known as 10gen, Inc. and changed its name to MongoDB, Inc. in August 2013. MongoDB, Inc. was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
A contraction in IT budgets combined with hyperscalers bundling competing NoSQL products at steep discounts forces MDB to sacrifice margins. Compounded by massive stock-based compensation, GAAP profitability remains elusive and terminal EV/Revenue multiples compress heavily.
Hyperscaler alternatives compress pricing power. Margin expansion stalls due to required investments, and high SBC severely dilutes returns, driving multiple compression.
AWS and Azure successfully migrate new workloads to native document databases, stalling Atlas growth.
SBC and R&D requirements remain structurally elevated, preventing the modeled 25% long-term .
De vijf ontwikkelingen die onze beleggingsthese zouden verzwakken.
A sharp slowdown in customer workload expansion would suggest database platform commoditization by cloud hyperscalers, compressing the valuation multiple and undermining long-term operating leverage expectations across enterprise software deployments.
Huidig:22.8% for the period ended 2026-01-31
Waarschuwing alsDecelerates below 15.0% over any trailing twelve-month period
High switching costs for embedded core databases
Network effects within developer ecosystems
Economic profit is supported when reported returns exceed the company cost-of-capital hurdle.
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
Unavailable
FCF cliff sensitivity is not model-supported in this run; use the discount-rate and terminal-growth grid as the primary valuation pressure test.
Atlas growth accelerates as AI drives demand for unstructured data storage. Operating leverage materializes rapidly, pushing MDB toward 25%+ operating margins and justifying a premium valuation.
MDB continues market share gains but faces structural margin caps. Valuation anchored on projected expansion but bounded by -calibrated 8x exit multiples.
If Atlas growth beats 20% and SBC normalizes, expect multiple expansion. If growth misses and margins compress, expect severe mean reversion.
If Atlas growth beats 20% and SBC normalizes, expect multiple expansion. If growth misses and margins compress, expect severe mean reversion.
If Atlas growth beats 20% and SBC normalizes, expect multiple expansion. If growth misses and margins compress, expect severe mean reversion.
If Atlas growth beats 20% and SBC normalizes, expect multiple expansion. If growth misses and margins compress, expect severe mean reversion.
Warning level: Decelerates below 15.0% over any trailing twelve-month period. A sharp slowdown in customer workload expansion would suggest database platform commoditization by cloud hyperscalers, compressing the valuation multiple and undermining long-term operating leverage expectations across enterprise software deployments.
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
| Omzet | 2.463.797.000 |
|---|---|
| Kostprijs van de omzet | 696.058.000 |
| Brutowinst | 1.767.739.000 |
| Bedrijfskosten | 1.904.707.000 |
| Bedrijfsresultaat | -136.968.000 |
| Niet-operationele posten en belastingen | 65.817.000 |
| Nettowinst | -71.151.000 |
| Totale activa | 3.758.848.000 |
|---|---|
| Liquide middelen | 1.083.540.000 |
| Vlottende activa | 3.114.855.000 |
| Totale verplichtingen | 806.490.000 |
| Kortlopende verplichtingen | 669.496.000 |
| Eigen vermogen | 2.952.358.000 |
Financiële momentopname gebruikt in de analyse van 2026-05-10.
| Periode | Omzet | EBITDA | Nettowinst | Operationele kasstroom | Vrije kasstroom | Investeringen | Afschrijvingen en amortisatie | Aandelenbeloning | Aandeleninkoop | Betaalde dividenden | Netto schuldemissie | Investeringskasstroom | Financieringskasstroom | Beginstand liquide middelen | Eindstand liquide middelen | Kas en beleggingen | Totale schuld | Operationele marge | ROIC | WACC | ROIC−WACC-spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-01-31 | 1,3 mld. | -294,3 mln. | -345,4 mln. | -13 mln. | -20,2 mln. | 7,2 mln. | 29,2 mln. | 381,5 mln. | — | — | -4,5 mln. | — | — | — | — | 455,8 mln. | 1,2 mld. | -27,0% | — | 9,5% | — |
| 2024-01-31 | 1,7 mld. | -122 mln. | -176,6 mln. | 121,5 mln. | 115,4 mln. | 6,1 mln. | 32,1 mln. | 456,9 mln. | 0 | — | -5,5 mln. | — | — | — | — | 803 mln. | 1,2 mld. | -13,9% | — | 10,9% | — |
| 2025-01-31 | 2 mld. | -96,5 mln. | -129,1 mln. | 150,2 mln. | 120,6 mln. | 29,6 mln. | 27 mln. | 493,9 mln. | 0 | — | -6,2 mln. | — | — | — | — | 490,1 mln. | 36,5 mln. | -10,8% | — | 11,7% | — |
| 2026-01-31 | 2,5 mld. | -15,2 mln. | -71,2 mln. | 505,1 mln. | 500,2 mln. | 5 mln. | 37,4 mln. | 550,5 mln. | 400,3 mln. | — | -7,5 mln. | — | — | — | — | 1,1 mld. | 32,9 mln. | -5,6% | — | 12,8% | — |
MDB trades at 42.5x forward earnings against a peer median of 52.4x; EV/EBITDA of -199.3x against a peer median of 107.7x; 5 peers.
Cloud migration and AI-driven unstructured data generation accelerate NoSQL adoption.
Enterprise IT budget optimization targets infrastructure software costs.
High reinvestment phase; heavy reliance on SBC to fund R&D.
Underweight. The premium to our $275.44 fair value creates an unfavorable risk/reward skew.
Trim on strength above internal valuation cross-checks ($347) where EV/Revenue multiples detach from bounds.
Hold. Upside is fully priced in. The PEG cross-check at $110 highlights severe downside risk.
Reassess the thesis against the named valuation, risk, and quarterly checkpoint evidence in this report.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
Market abandons EV/Revenue anchoring for pre-profit software, applying mature PEG multiples.
Inability to narrow GAAP operating losses due to elevated equity compensation and research overhead prevents transition toward sustainable profitability, forcing continued shareholder dilution and undermining targets for long-term cash flow generation.
Huidig:-5.6% for the period ended 2026-01-31
Waarschuwing alsDeclines below -10.0% over any trailing twelve-month period
A widening negative ratio indicates that reported cash generation is artificially decoupled from accounting deficits due to non-cash adjustments, masking core structural cash burn and delaying genuine economic self-sufficiency.
Huidig:-7.1 as of 2026-05-10
Waarschuwing alsDiverges below -8.0x as of any quarterly analysis date
Sustained gross profitability degradation indicates rising cloud infrastructure hosting costs and price discounting against cloud service providers, eroding unit economics and capping terminal operating margins.
Huidig:71.7% for the period ended 2026-01-31
Waarschuwing alsCompresses below 70.0% over any trailing twelve-month period
Persistent capital inefficiency caused by hyperscaler competitive displacement forces greater sales reinvestment without corresponding top-line return, destroying economic value and prolonging capital dependency.
Huidig:-1.4% as of 2026-05-10
Waarschuwing alsDeclines below -5.0% as of any annual measurement date
Multiply the peer median PEG by this stock's forecast growth to derive an implied forward P/E, then apply it to forward EPS.
Project revenue, apply a terminal EV/revenue multiple, discount enterprise value, subtract net debt, and divide by diluted shares.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
Warning level: Declines below -10.0% over any trailing twelve-month period. Inability to narrow GAAP operating losses due to elevated equity compensation and research overhead prevents transition toward sustainable profitability, forcing continued shareholder dilution and undermining targets for long-term cash flow generation.
Warning level: Diverges below -8.0x as of any quarterly analysis date. A widening negative ratio indicates that reported cash generation is artificially decoupled from accounting deficits due to non-cash adjustments, masking core structural cash burn and delaying genuine economic self-sufficiency.
Warning level: Compresses below 70.0% over any trailing twelve-month period. Sustained gross profitability degradation indicates rising cloud infrastructure hosting costs and price discounting against cloud service providers, eroding unit economics and capping terminal operating margins.
Warning level: Declines below -5.0% as of any annual measurement date. Persistent capital inefficiency caused by hyperscaler competitive displacement forces greater sales reinvestment without corresponding top-line return, destroying economic value and prolonging capital dependency.
| Marge |
|---|
| MDB | MongoDB Inc. | $24.1B | 42.5x | 9.8x | -199.3x | — | — |
| MSFT | Microsoft Corporation | 21.4x | 9.7x | 17.0x | 34.0% | 46.3% | |
| ORCL | Oracle Corporation | 24.4x | 8.8x | 25.2x | 57.6% | 32.7% | |
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies Inc. | 66.9x | 63.2x | 159.9x | 32.6% | 46.2% | |
| PANW | Palo Alto Networks Inc. | 52.4x | 17.0x | 107.7x | 16.3% | 15.5% |
